Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams     

Roberto Mínguez  Fernando Delgado  Ignacio Escuder  Manuel G. de Membrillera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(10):1019-1037

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）     

ZHANGXue-qin GEQuan-sheng ZHENGJing-yun 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):207-215

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.  相似文献   

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

Gravitational wave detection through microlensing?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roberto Ragazzoni  Gianpaolo Valente  Enrico Marchetti 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(1):100-110

It is shown that accurate photometric observations of a relatively high-magnification microlensing event  ( A ≫ 1)  , occurring close to the line of sight of a gravitational wave (GW) source, represented by a binary star, can allow the detection of subtle gravitational effects. After reviewing the physical nature of such effects, it is discussed to what extent these phenomena can actually be caused by GWs. Expressions for the amplitude of the phenomena and the detection probability are supplied.  相似文献   

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn     

纪雷  崔鹤  辛淑平  王军  张龙军  陆贤昆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(2):180-186

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

JIANGDong WANGNai-bin YANGXIao-huan WANGJi-hua 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(1):62-65

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.  相似文献   

Photometric Study of the W Uma-Type Eclipsing Binary System GSC 4832.400     

M. Jurado Vargas  P. Merchán BenÍtez 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,288(3):237-244

We present a photometric analysis of the eclipsing binary systemGSC4832.400 based on 732 photometric observations obtained on sixteen clear nights during 1999–2000 in the V-Johnson and yb-Strömgren filters. The observed times of the minima yielded a linear ephemeris showing that the system has a constant period of 0.313150 ± 0.000002days. The light curve corresponds to a circular orbit for the system and clearly shows that GSC4832.400 has the defining characteristics of a W UMa-type eclipsing binary. It also shows a small O'Connell effect, which could be due to the presence of a hot spot in the primary star. A preliminary photometric solution based on the assumption of an over contact systemsatis factorily reproduced the observed light curve.  相似文献   

Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1): UVSTAR-FUV Spectroscopy from the Space Shuttle     

Cristiano B. Cosmovici  Vojko Bratina  Gottfried Schwarz  Gianpaolo Tozzi  Michael J. Mumma  Roberto Stalio 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2006,301(1-4):135-143

We report here on unique post-perihelion (2.3 AU) measurements of Comet Hale-Bopp in the FUV-range (950–1250 Å) by means of the UVSTAR spectrometer from the space shuttle with the main purpose of searching for argon and other FUV emitters. New methods for separating the strong airglow emission at shuttle altitudes are here discussed in detail. Due to our low resolution (15 Å) and S/N ratio the possible rocket-borne detection of argon near perihelion (0.9 AU) could not be confirmed. New species as N₂ are suspected but difficult to separate from the strong airglow emission at shuttle altitudes. From the Lyα brightness (1.30± 0.08 kRy) a water production rate Q = 5.9 ± 0.4 × 10²⁹ molecules s^?1 could be derived and compared with other post-perihelion observations.  相似文献   

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA     

YANGYong-liang SHITong-guang JLANGLU-guang LIYue 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(2):130-133

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.  相似文献   

SORPTION AND DESORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF CADMIUM BY FOUR DIFFERENT SOILS IN NORTHEAST CHINA   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

ZHANG Lei SONG Feng-bin 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(4):343-347

1IN TR O D U C TIO NA s a persistentand toxic pollutant, cadm ium (C d) canresultin m any adverse health effects in a variety oftis-suesand organssuch asthe lung,kidney,urinary,blad-der,pancreas,breast and prostate (SA TA R U G etal.,2003).C adm ium in so…  相似文献