Adjoint free four-dimensional variational data assimilation for a storm surge model of the German North Sea   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Xiangyang Zheng  Roberto Mayerle  Qianguo Xing  José Manuel Fernández Jaramillo 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(8):1037-1050

In this paper, a data assimilation scheme based on the adjoint free Four-Dimensional Variational(4DVar) method is applied to an existing storm surge model of the German North Sea. To avoid the need of an adjoint model, an ensemble-like method to explicitly represent the linear tangent equation is adopted. Results of twin experiments have shown that the method is able to recover the contaminated low dimension model parameters to their true values. The data assimilation scheme was applied to a severe storm surge event which occurred in the North Sea in December 5, 2013. By adjusting wind drag coefficient, the predictive ability of the model increased significantly. Preliminary experiments have shown that an increase in the predictive ability is attained by narrowing the data assimilation time window.  相似文献   

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides: a model for the triggering mechanism of some case studies in Northern Italy   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

Lorella Montrasio  Roberto Valentino  Gian Luca Losi 《Landslides》2009,6(3):241-251

The article relates the main findings of a recent investigation aimed at modeling the triggering of shallow landslides. A simplified model for assessing the safety factor of potentially unstable slopes, directly related with rainfall trends, was developed. Based on the geometric characteristics of the slope, the geotechnical properties, and strength parameters of the soil, the model makes it possible to define a safety factor of a slope as a function of time. The model is based on the limit equilibrium method and takes into account the seepage of underground water. The safety factor is, in turn, related to the seasonal rainfall. The model was applied on a local scale to some historical cases which had occurred recently in Northern Italy. The paper shows how the results of the application of the model on a local scale achieve a good agreement between the instability condition and the real date of each considered event.  相似文献   

Forest Fire Alert System: a Geo Web GIS prioritization model considering land susceptibility and hotspots – a case study in the Carajás National Forest,Brazilian Amazon     

Marcelo Roberto Barbosa  Mario Guimarães Buratto  Leonardo Santana de Oliveira Dias  João Paulo Carvalho Raivel  Flavio Lobos Martins 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):873-901

To increase the monitoring potential of forest fires, an alert classification methodology using satellite-mapped hotspots has been established to help forest managers in the prioritization of which hotspot to be verified in the field, thus potentially improving the distribution of fire-fighting resources. A computer application was developed based on web-distributed geographical information technology whose main function is to interact automatically generated satellite hotspots and risk areas indicated in fire-susceptibility maps and classify them into five alert levels. The location of the hotspots is available continuously every 4 h, and a susceptibility map is produced daily through map algebra algorithm, which uses static (topography, vegetation and land use) and dynamic (weather) variables. Every process runs through automated geoprocessing routines. The methodology was tested during the dry period of 2007 in the Carajás National Forest, in the Brazilian Amazon, within an area of 400,000 ha. It is a critical area constantly threatened by fires caused by invasions and deforestation owing to intense agribusiness advances and mining activities in its surroundings. This situation results in observations of many hotspots inside the study area for the same day and almost the same time period, in places of extreme opposites, demanding complex rapid analysis and hindering the decision of the displacement of fire-fighting teams. Further, a major mining company operates within the National Forest area, maintaining actions of protection as part of its environmental mining license. Results are presented under three aspects: (i) the credibility of the daily susceptibility map (algorithm), which showed strong correlation between areas of greatest risks and the confirmed forest fires; (ii) the reliability of hotspots (alert levels), confirming 71% of fires; (iii) accuracy in the decision of which hotspot to be checked, which revealed the same number of verifications at different alert levels, 82% confirmed alert 5 hotspots (maximum) and only 50% from alert 1 (minimum), resulting in faster fire-fighting actions, minimizing burned areas and, in some cases, allowing fire control before its spreading. Therefore, the methodology demonstrated that GIS routines are able to determine the relationship between a reality-based, interpreted susceptibility map of the area and satellite-generated hotspots, highlighting the ones of highest hazard level through the alert classification, becoming an important tool to help decisions from the fire-control center, especially for high-risk regions. The methodology may be extrapolated to other forested areas.  相似文献   

Geophysical-Archaeological Survey in Lake Tequesquitengo,Morelos, Mexico     

Roberto E. Galindo Domínguez  William L. Bandy  Carlos A. Mortera Gutiérrez  José Ortega Ramírez 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(3):261-275

In August 2009, a marine geophysical survey was conducted in Lake Tequesquitengo (located in the state of Morelos, Mexico) to delineate the extent of the remains of a small town that has been submerged since the mid 19th century. The survey consists of the acquisition and mapping of magnetic, single beam bathymetric and side-scan sonar data. A dual receiver marine GPS navigation system was used to position the boat during the survey. Except for the larger structural remains that are visible on the side scan sonar images, the magnetic anomaly map proved to be most useful in delineating the extent of the town. These anomalies exhibit short wavelength components in the area surrounding a submerged church, with the shortest wavelength components being confined to the area immediately east of the church. These short wavelength components are only observed near the church; therefore, we propose that they delineate the buried remnants of the submerged town.  相似文献   

Distinguishing the Regional Atmospheric Controls on Precipitation Isotopic Variability in the Central-Southeast Portion of Brazil     

Vinícius dos SANTOS  Peter MARSHALL FLEMING  Luís HENRIQUE MANCINI  Stela DALVA SANTOS COTA  Graziele Beatriz de LIMA  Rafaela RODRIGUES GOMES  Roberto Eduardo KIRCHHEIM  Ricardo SANCHéZ-MURILLO  Didier GASTMANS 《大气科学进展》2022,39(10):1693-1708

Precipitation isotope ratios (O and H) record the history of water phase transitions and fractionation processes during moisture transport and rainfall formation. Here, we evaluated the isotopic composition of precipitation over the central-southeastern region of Brazil at different timescales. Monthly isotopic compositions were associated with classical effects (rainfall amount, seasonality, and continentality), demonstrating the importance of vapor recirculation processes and different regional atmospheric systems (South American Convergence Zone-SACZ and Cold Fronts-CF). While moisture recycling and regional atmospheric processes may also be observed on a daily timescale, classical effects such as the amount effect were not strongly correlated (δ¹⁸O-precipitation rate r ≤ –0.37). Daily variability revealed specific climatic features, such as δ¹⁸O depleted values (~ –6‰ to –8‰) during the wet season were associated with strong convective activity and large moisture availability. Daily isotopic analysis revealed the role of different moisture sources and transport effects. Isotope ratios combined with d-excess explain how atmospheric recirculation processes interact with convective activity during rainfall formation processes. Our findings provide a new understanding of rainfall sampling timescales and highlight the importance of water isotopes to decipher key hydrometeorological processes in a complex spatial and temporal context in central-southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Two-dimensional dam break flooding simulation: a GIS-embedded approach   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Massimiliano?CannataEmail author  Roberto?Marzocchi 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):1143-1159

In the twenty-first century, around 200 notable dam and reservoir failures happened worldwide causing massive fatalities and economic costs. In order to reduce the losses, managers usually define mitigation strategies identifying flooding area due to dam break by using standalone hydrodynamic models and then importing the results within a GIS to perform risk analysis. This two-step procedure is time expensive, error prone due to export/import requirements and not user friendly. For this reason with this work, a new numerical model for the solution of the two-dimensional dam break problem has been implemented in the GRASS GIS with a GIS-embedded approach. The model solves the conservative form of the 2D shallow water equations using a finite volume method; the intercell flux is computed by one-side upwind conservative scheme extended to a two-dimensional problem. The newly developed GIS module, among others outputs, allows to derive maximum intensity maps that can be directly used for risk assessment. Finally, the model has been (1) tested against two standard synthetic problems referenced in literature showing differences in estimated water depth of 2, 3 and 15% and (2) verified against official flooding map of an existing dam (Verzasca) detecting 75% of similarity. The problem formulation, the new GRASS module and its validation is presented.  相似文献   

Macroseismic effects highlight site response in Rome and its geological signature     

Paola Sbarra  Valerio De Rubeis  Emiliano Di Luzio  Marco Mancini  Massimiliano Moscatelli  Francesco Stigliano  Patrizia Tosi  Roberto Vallone 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):425-443

A detailed analysis of the earthquake effects on the urban area of Rome has been conducted for the L??Aquila sequence, which occurred in April 2009, by using an online macroseismic questionnaire. Intensity residuals calculated using the mainshock and four aftershocks are analyzed in light of a very accurate and original geological reconstruction of the subsoil of Rome based on a large amount of wells. The aim of this work is to highlight ground motion amplification areas and to find a correlation with the geological settings at a subregional scale, putting in evidence the extreme complexity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of making a simplified model. Correlations between amplification areas and both near-surface and deep geology were found. Moreover, the detailed scale of investigation has permitted us to find a correlation between seismic amplification in recent alluvial settings and subsiding zones, and between heard seismic sound and Tiber alluvial sediments.  相似文献   

Structure and nuclear density distribution in the cheralite—CaTh(PO4)2: studies of its behaviour under high pressure (36?GPa)     

Philippe E. Raison  Stephen Heathman  Gilles Wallez  Carmen E. Zvoriste  Denis Bykov  Ga?l Ménard  Emmanuelle Suard  Karin Popa  Nicolas Dacheux  Rudy J. M. Konings  Roberto Caciuffo 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(8):685-692

The crystal structure of the cheralite—CaTh(PO₄)₂—has been revisited by neutron diffraction and its behaviour under high pressure investigated by X-ray diffraction up to 36?GPa. The neutron diffraction data at ambient pressure gave a more accurate determination of the Ca/Th cation position than previous XRD data, taking advantage that the neutron scattering lengths of calcium and thorium are of same order of magnitude. The nuclear density distribution was also determined using the maximum entropy method (MEM) confirming that the two cations are not located at the same position in the unit cell but are slightly displaced from one another along a specific direction in order to minimize the electrostatic repulsion with the surrounding phosphorus atoms. At high pressure, the compound did not show any phase transition or amorphization. From the evolution of the unit-cell volume as a function of the pressure, the zero-pressure bulk modulus B₀ and its pressure derivative B₀ ^′ have been determined by fitting the experimental compressibility curve to the Birch–Murnaghan equation of state. The results are B₀?=?140(2) GPa and B ₀ ^′ ?=?4.4(4) GPa.  相似文献   

Glaucony from the Cretaceous of the Sierra de Guadarrama (Central Spain) and its application in a sequence-stratigraphic context   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alessandro Amorosi  Roberto Guidi  Ramon Mas  Elisa Falanga 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(2):415-427

Detailed sedimentological and geochemical analyses of Upper Cretaceous glaucony-bearing deposits from the middle portion of the Castro de Fuentidueña Formation, in Central Spain, enable identification of a multiphase history of glaucony accumulation. Despite its relatively high maturity (K₂O > 7%), glaucony from the transgressive subtidal sandstones has anomalously low concentration in the host rock (generally <10%), suggesting remobilization from a different source. The remarkable thickness of the glaucony-bearing horizons, concurrently with concentration of glaucony in laminae, small size, and high degree of roundness and sorting provide further evidence for an allochthonous origin of the green grains. In contrast, authigenic glaucony from the overlying offshore clays exhibits higher abundance (up to 45%) and lower maturity (K₂O < 7%) and is interpreted to have formed in situ. Allochthonous glaucony originally developed in more distal areas during a prolonged period of sediment starvation. The green grains were then swept away from their place of origin and concentrated into tidal bars and channels within the upper transgressive systems tract of the third-order depositional sequence. Maximum concentration of autochthonous glaucony is recorded at the transition from tidal-influenced to offshore deposits: this glaucony, which is relatively less evolved due to lower time available for maturation, is interpreted to reflect the turnaround from transgressive to highstand conditions, marking the condensed section of the depositional sequence. As postulated by previous sequence-stratigraphic models, this study documents that allochthonous glaucony can be widespread throughout the transgressive systems tract (TST), while the condensed section (CS) typically hosts autochthonous glaucony. Contrary to the existing literature, however, this study shows that glaucony from the TST may be even more mature than glaucony from the CS, if enough time for maturation during transgression is allowed before the ultimate concentration of the green grains. Identification of spatial and temporal characteristics of glaucony, thus, is critical to a reliable sequence-stratigraphic interpretation of the glaucony-bearing deposits.  相似文献   

The 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Tsunami: Simulations Based on the First Focal Mechanism Solutions and Implications on Tsunami Early Warning Strategies     

Roberto Tonini  Alberto Armigliato  Stefano Tinti 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1113-1123

The tsunamigenic earthquake (Mw?=?8.1) that occurred on 29 September 2009 at 17:48 UTC offshore of the Samoa archipelago east of the Tonga trench represents an example of the so-called ??outer-rise?? earthquakes. The areas most affected were the south coasts of Western and American Samoa, where almost 200 people were killed and run-up heights were measured in excess of 5?m at several locations along the coast. Moreover, tide gauge records showed a maximum peak-to-peak height of about 3.5?m near Pago Pago (American Samoa) and of 1.5?m offshore of Apia (Western Samoa). In this work, different fault models based on the focal mechanism solutions proposed by Global CMT and by USGS immediately after the 2009 Samoan earthquake are tested by comparing the near-field recorded signals (three offshore DART buoys and two coastal tide gauges) and the synthetic signals provided by the numerical simulations. The analysis points out that there are lights and shadows, in the sense that none of the computed tsunamis agrees satisfactorily with all the considered signals, although some of them reproduce some of the records quite well. This ??partial agreement?? and ??partial disagreement?? are analysed in the perspective of tsunami forecast and of Tsunami Early Warning System strategy.  相似文献