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81.
82.
Ram Bichar Singh Yadav Jayant Nath Tripathi Bal Krishna Rastogi Sumer Chopra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(9-10):1813-1833
The Gujarat and adjoining region falls under all four seismic zones V, IV, III and II of the seismic zoning map of India, and is one of the most seismically prone intracontinental regions of the world. It has experienced two large earthquakes of magnitude M w 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and 2001, respectively and several moderate earthquakes during the past two centuries. In the present study, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 has been estimated during a specified time interval for different elapsed times on the basis of observed time intervals between earthquakes using three stochastic models namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. A complete earthquake catalogue has been used covering the time interval of 1819 to 2006. The whole region has been divided into three major seismic regions (Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh) on the basis of seismotectonics and geomorphology of the region. The earthquake hazard parameters have been estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to test the suitability of models in three different regions. It was found that the Weibull model fits well with the actual data in Saurashtra and Kachchh regions, whereas Lognormal model fits well in Mainland Gujarat. The mean intervals of occurrence of earthquakes are estimated as 40.455, 20.249 and 13.338 years in the Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh region, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur at a time later than some specific time from the last earthquake) for the earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 reaches 0.9 after about 64 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra, about 49 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 29 years from the last earthquake (2006) in the Kachchh region. The conditional probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur during some specific time interval after a certain elapsed time from last earthquake) is also estimated and it reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 during the time interval of about 57 to 66 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra region, 31 to 51 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 21 to 28 years from the last earthquake (2006) in Kachchh region. 相似文献
83.
84.
László I. Fodor Axel Gerdes István Dunkl Balázs Koroknai Zoltán Pécskay Mirka Trajanova Péter Horváth Marko Vrabec Bogomir Jelen Kadosa Balogh Wolfgang Frisch 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2008,101(1):255-271
New laser ablation-inductive coupled plasma-mass spectrometry U-Pb analyses on oscillatory-zoned zircon imply Early Miocene crystallization (18.64 ± 0.11 Ma) of the Pohorje pluton at the southeastern margin of the Eastern Alps (northern Slovenia). Inherited zircon cores indicate two crustal sources: a late Variscan magmatic population (~270–290 Ma), and an early Neoproterozoic one (850–900 Ma) with juvenile Hf isotope composition close to that of depleted mantle. Initial εHf of Miocene zircon points to an additional, more juvenile source component of the Miocene magma, which could be either a juvenile Phanerozoic crust or the Miocene mantle. The new U-Pb isotope age of the Pohorje pluton seriously questions its attribution to the Oligocene age ‘Periadriatic’ intrusions. The new data imply a temporal coincidence with 19–15 Ma magmatism in the Pannonian Basin system, more specifically in the Styrian Basin. K-Ar mineral- and whole rock ages from the pluton itself and cogenetic shallow intrusive dacitic rocks (~18–16 Ma), as well as zircon fission track data (17.7–15.6 Ma), gave late Early to early Middle Miocene ages, indicating rapid cooling of the pluton within about 3 Million years. Medium-grade Austroalpine metamorphics north and south of the pluton were reheated and subsequently cooled together. Outcrop- and micro scale structures record deformation of the Pohorje pluton and few related mafic and dacitic dykes under greenschist facies conditions. Part of the solidstate fabrics indicate E–W oriented stretching and vertical thinning, while steeply dipping foliation and NW–SE trending lineation are also present. The E–W oriented lineation is parallel to the direction of subsequent brittle extension, which resulted in normal faulting and tilting of the earlier ductile fabric at around the Early / Middle Miocene boundary; normal faulting was combined with strike-slip faulting. Renewed N–S compression may be related to late Miocene to Quaternary dextral faulting in the area. The documented syn-cooling extensional structures and part of the strike-slip faults can be interpreted as being related to lateral extrusion of the Eastern Alps and/or to back-arc rifting in the Pannonian Basin. 相似文献
85.
Understanding the linkages between the biogeophysical and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales is important for land cover change mitigation. This study analysed several factors that explained the forest-shrubland conversions, grassland conversions and cropland expansions in Lake Nakuru drainage basin and Eastern Mau forest reserve in Kenya from 1985 to 2011. Logistic regression models were developed using a combination of remote sensing-based land cover data, and geographical information systems-based geophysical and socio-economic data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness, curvature, soil pH, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), population density and distance to road, river and town). The results were varied; for example, in the period 1985–2000, forest-shrubland conversions were linked to distance to road), distance to town, soil pH, soil CEC, rainfall, topographic wetness, curvature and aspect. The same factors, in addition to slope and distance to river, also determined the likelihood of forest-shrubland conversions in the period 2000–2011. Overall, significance of the determining factors varied depending on time and nature of land cover change. For example, topographical factors influenced grassland conversions in the period 1985–2000, while soil-related factors did not. But in the period 2000–2011, the converse was true. Therefore, policies for restoration, conservation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems (e.g., forests) should be spatially targeted and time-specific. These results broaden our knowledge of land cover dynamics in this locality, and provide a base for effective environmental policy formulation, planning and management. 相似文献