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Salvador Pueyo 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):131-161
Here I present a new approach to forecasting the effects of climate change on catastrophic events, based on the ‘self-organised
criticality’ concept from statistical physics. In particular, I develop the ‘self-organised critical fuel succession model’
(SOCFUS), which deals with wildland fires. I show that there is good agreement between model and data for the response pattern
of the whole fire size statistical distribution to weather fluctuations in a boreal forest region. I tentatively predict the
fire regime in this region for an instance of possible climate change scenario. I show that the immediate response is sharper
than usually thought, but part of the added burning rate might not persist indefinitely. A large fraction of the extra burning
in the transition period is likely to be concentrated in a few ‘climate change fires’, much larger than the largest fires
that could currently occur. I also suggest that the major fire events recently observed in some tropical rainforest regions
belong to a qualitatively different, even more abrupt type of response, which is also predicted by the model.
Electronic supplementary material Electronic supplementary material is available for this article at 相似文献
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Salvador E. Lluch-Cota Eugenio A. Aragón-Noriega David Aurioles-Gamboa Richard C. Brusca Roberto Cortés-Altamirano Alfonso Esquivel-Herrera Michel E. Hendrickx Hugo Herrera-Cervantes Miguel Lavín Daniel B. Lluch-Cota Silvio G. Marinone Sofia Ortega-García Alejandro Parés-Sierra Mauricio Ramírez-Rodríguez Richard A. Schwartzlose Arturo P. Sierra-Beltrán 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,73(1):1-26
The Gulf of California is unique because of its geographical location and conformation. It hosts diverse ecosystems and important fisheries that support industry and provide livelihood to coastal settlements. It is also the site of interests and problems, and an intense interaction among managers, producers, and conservationists. In this report, we scrutinize the abiotic (hydrography, climate, ocean circulation, and chemistry) and biotic (phyto- and zooplankton, fish, invertebrates, marine mammals, birds, and turtles) components of the marine ecosystem, and some particular aspects of climate variability, endemisms, harmful algal blooms, oxygen minimum layer, and pollution. We also review the current conditions and conflicts around the main fisheries (shrimp, small and large pelagic fishes, squid, artisanal and sportfishing), the most important human activity in the Gulf of California. We cover some aspects of management and conservation of fisheries, especially the claimed overexploitation of fish resources and the ecosystems, and review proposals for creating networks of marine protected areas. We conclude by identifying main needs for information and research, particularly the integration of data bases, the implementation of models and paleoreconstructions, establishment of monitoring programs, and the evaluation of fishing impacts and management actions. 相似文献
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Daniel B. Lluch-Cota Warren S. Wooster Steven R. Hare Daniel Lluch-Belda Alejandro Parés-Sierra 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(4):477-488
We examined monthly time-series (1950 to 1999) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 47 quadrants (2° × 2°) along the Pacific coast of North America. Correlation, clustering and principal components analyses were applied to identify the spatial structure in coastal SST. The resulting modes and the individual series were investigated using spectral analysis to identify the most significant time-scales of variability, and the propagation of the main signals was explored by computing the wavenumber-frequency spectrum of each spatial mode. Results showed that coastal SST variability in the northeast Pacific conformed to three main geographical modes. A tropical mode extends from the equator to about the entrance to the Gulf of California. This mode appears related to two low frequency components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation of about 3 and 5 years. The SST anomaly related to these signals propagates poleward, seemingly at low speeds (≈0.08 m s?1). A temperate (or transitional) mode, which includes the coastal areas along the California Current System, also shows the 5-year signal plus a decadal-scale component (periods between 10–17 years). Finally, a subarctic mode includes the coastal areas along the Gulf of Alaska and is dominated by the interdecadal variability that is characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 相似文献
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S.E. Lluch-Cota M. Tripp-Valdez D.B. Lluch-Cota J.J. Bautista-Romero D. Lluch-Belda J. Verbesselt H. Herrera-Cervantes 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):537-546
Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed. 相似文献
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Leopoldo Martínez Nieto Gassan Hodaifa Salvador Rodríguez José A. Giménez Javier Ochando 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2011,39(10):949-955
Flocculation and sedimentation of particles are essential to many environmental and industrial processes. Solid–liquid separation in olive‐oil mill wastewater treatment by means of Fenton system is the key to work continuously and maintain a constant outlet flow of clarified water at the end of the oxidation process. Natural sedimentation is not capable to eliminate the sludge formed. The efficiency of flocculation operation using different flocculants as QG‐2001, QG‐2002, DQGALFLOC‐130H, and Nalco‐77171 was investigated. The optimum dosage of each flocculant, 150, 2.5, 66, and 6 mg dm?3, respectively, was determined. The results revealed that the best flocculant was Nalco‐77171, which determined 13.5% v/v final sludge separation and 86.5% v/v final clarified water obtained. Kinetics of sludge removal in the transition zone was adjusted to power law, v/v0 = Ktε, where the exponent, ε, varied in the range 0.141–0.670. 相似文献
39.
The term Tertiary, subdivided into the Paleogene and Neogene, is traditionally used to represent the interval of geological time between the Cretaceous and Quaternary. In the 1990s, however, the Neogene and Paleogene were ratified by the International Union of Geological Sciences as periods/systems of the Cenozoic Era/Erathem, leaving the Tertiary officially undefined. The Tertiary nonetheless remains a formal term that has never been officially eliminated, and its widespread use today implies a long future. 相似文献
40.
M. Pilar Salvador Sanchis Dino Torri Lorenzo Borselli Rorke Bryan Jean Poesen Marta S. Yañez Cati Cremer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(15):2023-2030
Eroding channels can usually be characterized by a power relationship between channel width (W) and channel discharge (Q). This paper examines the WQ relation using a recently developed channel junction approach to extend the validity of the WQ relation and to develop a procedure for estimating the WQ exponent and proportionality coefficient. Rill and gully channel data from the literature, and new data collected in different badland areas and in a few forest mountain streams, are analysed. Analysis shows that the WQ relation for channel width collected in badlands and forests agrees with trends observed for cropland. The exponent increases with increasing channel width in a continuous fashion rather than in a step‐like way and tends to a maximum whose value ranges between 0·5 and 0·6. The proportionality coefficient can be split into two terms, one expressing the case in which an eroding channel can broaden, the other reflecting the difficulties in removing the less erodible clods or rock fragments from the channel bed. Its splitting allows the development of a more correct form of the WQ relation in agreement with modern approaches of channel geometry: one part has the dimension of a discharge and makes the power base dimensionless, while the other brings the dimension of a length, needed for the channel width, into the WQ relation. The interpretation of the two constants is supported by data collected in rainfall‐runoff simulation experiments conducted in the field. Values characterizing the two constants in some environments are also given. Nevertheless the approach is not sufficiently parameterized yet to be of practical use (e.g. in models or for estimating peak discharge in areas where rill channels have formed). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献