Confidence Limits of Evolutionary Synthesis Models     

Miguel Cerviño  Valentina Luridiana 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):207-210

The probabilistic nature of the IMF in stellar systems implies that clusters of the same mass and age do not present the same unique values of their observed parameters. Instead they follow a distribution. We address the study of such distributions in terms of their confidence limits that can be obtained by evolutionary synthesis models. These confidence limits can be understood as the inherent uncertainties of synthesis models. We will compare such confidence limits arising from the discreteness of the number of stars obtained with Monte Carlo simulations with the dispersion resulting from an analytical formalism. We give some examples of the effects on the kinetic energy, V–K, EW(Hβ) and multiwavelength continuum. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Extinction within 10° of the Galactic centre using 2MASS     

C. M. Dutra  B. X. Santiago  E. L. D. Bica  B. Barbuy 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):253-262

  相似文献   

Chemical and isotopic investigations (δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O, δ<Superscript>2</Superscript>H, <Superscript>3</Superscript>H, <Superscript>87</Superscript>Sr/<Superscript>86</Superscript>Sr) to define groundwater processes occurring in a deep-seated landslide in flysch     

M. Deiana  F. Cervi  M. Pennisi  M. Mussi  C. Bertrand  A. Tazioli  A. Corsini  F. Ronchetti 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(8):2669-2691

Deep-seated landslides are complex systems. In many cases, multidisciplinary studies are necessary to unravel the key hydrological features that can influence their evolution in space and time. The deep-seated Berceto landslide, in the northern Apennines of Italy, has been investigated in order to define the origin and geochemical evolution of groundwater (GW), to identify the slope system hydrological boundary, and to highlight the GW flow paths, transit time and transfer modalities inside the landslide body. This research is based on a multidisciplinary approach that involves monitoring GW levels, obtaining analyses of water chemistry and stable and unstable isotopes (δ¹⁸O-δ²H, ³H, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr), performing soil leaching tests, geochemical modelling (PHREEQC), and principal component analysis (PCA). The results of δ¹⁸O-δ²H and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr analyses show that the source of GW recharge in the Berceto landslide is local rainwater, and external contributions from a local stream can be excluded. In the landslide body, two GW hydrotypes (Ca-HCO₃ and Na-HCO₃) are identified, and the results of PHREEQC and PCA confirm that the chemical features of the GW depend on water–rock interaction processes occurring inside the landslide. The ³H content suggests a recent origin for GW and appears to highlight mixing between shallow and deep GW aliquots. The ³H content and GW levels data confirm that shallow GW is mainly controlled by a mass transfer mechanism. The ³H analyses with GW levels also indicate that only deep GW is controlled by a pressure transfer mechanism, and this mechanism is likely the main influence on the landslide kinematics.  相似文献   

Post-processing of sequential indicator simulation realizations for modeling geologic bodies     

Jorge Kazuo Yamamoto  Paulo Milton Barbosa Landim  Antonio Tadashi Kikuda  Claudio Benedito Baptista Leite  Santiago Diaz Lopez 《Computational Geosciences》2015,19(1):257-266

  相似文献   

Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate,socio-economics and adaptation     

Eric Audsley  Mirek Trnka  Santiago Sabaté  Joan Maspons  Anabel Sanchez  Daniel Sandars  Jan Balek  Kerry Pearn 《Climatic change》2015,128(3-4):215-227

  相似文献   

Glacial to Holocene climate changes in the SE Pacific. The Raraku Lake sedimentary record (Easter Island, 27°S)     

Alberto Sáez  Blas L. Valero-Garcés  Santiago Giralt  Ana Moreno  Roberto Bao  Juan J. Pueyo  Armand Hernández  David Casas 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(25-26):2743-2759

Easter Island (SE Pacific, 27°S) provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct past climate changes in the South Pacific region based on terrestrial archives. Although the general climate evolution of the south Pacific since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is coherent with terrestrial records in southern South America and Polynesia, the details of the dynamics of the shifting Westerlies, the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Anticyclone during the glacial–interglacial transition and the Holocene, and the large scale controls on precipitation in tropical and extratropical regions remain elusive. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of lake dynamics, watershed processes and paleohydrology for the last 34 000 cal yrs BP based on a sedimentological and geochemical multiproxy study of 8 cores from the Raraku Lake sediments constrained by 22 AMS radiocarbon dates. This multicore strategy has reconstructed the sedimentary architecture of the lake infilling and provided a stratigraphic framework to integrate and correlate previous core and vegetation studies conducted in the lake. High lake levels and clastic input dominated sedimentation in Raraku Lake between 34 and 28 cal kyr BP. Sedimentological and geochemical evidences support previously reported pollen data showing a relatively open forest and a cold and relatively humid climate during the Glacial period. Between 28 and 17.3 cal kyr BP, including the LGM period, colder conditions contributed to a reduction of the tree coverage in the island. The coherent climate patterns in subtropical and mid latitudes of Chile and Eastern Island for the LGM (more humid conditions) suggest stronger influence of the Antarctic circumpolar current and an enhancement of the Westerlies. The end of Glacial Period occurred at 17.3 cal kyr BP and was characterized by a sharp decrease in lake level conducive to the development of major flood events and erosion of littoral sediments. Deglaciation (Termination 1) between 17.3 and 12.5 cal kyr BP was characterized by an increase in lake productivity, a decrease in the terrigenous input and a rapid lake level recovery, inaugurating a period of intermediate lake levels, dominance of organic deposition and algal lamination. The timing and duration of deglaciation events in Easter Island broadly agree with other mid- and low-latitude circum South Pacific terrestrial records. The transition to the Holocene was characterized by lower lake levels. The lake level dropped during the early Holocene (ca 9.5 cal kyr BP) and swamp and shallow lake conditions dominated till mid Holocene, partially favored by the infilling of the lacustrine basin. During the mid- to late-Holocene drought phases led to periods of persistent low water table, subaerial exposure and erosion, generating a sedimentary hiatus in the Raraku sequence, from 4.2 to 0.8 cal kyr BP. The presence of this dry mid Holocene phase, also identified in low Andean latitudes and in Patagonian mid latitudes, suggests that the shift of storm tracks caused by changes in the austral summer insolation or forced by “El Niño-like” dominant conditions have occurred at a regional scale. The palm deforestation of the Easter Island, attributed to the human impact could have started earlier, during the 4.2–0.8 cal kyr BP sedimentary gap. Our paleoclimatic data provides insights about the climate scenarios that could favor the arrival of the Polynesian people to the island. If it occurred at ca AD 800 it coincided with the warmer conditions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, whereas if it took place at ca AD 1300 it was favored by enhanced westerlies at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Changes in land uses (farming, intensive cattle) during the last century had a large impact in the hydrology and limnology (eutrophication) of the lake.  相似文献   

Structure and tectonic history of the foreland basins of southernmost South America     

Matías C. Ghiglione  Javier Quinteros  Daniel Yagupsky  Pedro Bonillo-Martínez  Julio Hlebszevtich  Victor A. Ramos  Gustavo Vergani  Daniel Figueroa  Santiago Quesada  y Tomás Zapata 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2010,29(2):262-277

The common elements and differences of the neighboring Austral (Magallanes), Malvinas and South Malvinas (South Falkland) sedimentary basins are described and analyzed. The tectonic history of these basins involves Triassic to Jurassic crustal stretching, an ensuing Early Cretaceous thermal subsidence in the retroarc, followed by a Late Cretaceous–Paleogene compressional phase, and a Neogene to present-day deactivation of the fold–thrust belt dominated by wrench deformation. A concomitant Late Cretaceous onset of the foreland phase in the three basins and an integrated history during the Late Cretaceous–Cenozoic are proposed. The main lower Paleocene–lower Eocene initial foredeep depocenters were bounding the basement domain and are now deformed into the thin-skinned fold–thrust belts. A few extensional depocenters developed in the Austral and Malvinas basins during late Paleocene–early Eocene times due to a temporary extensional regime resulting from an acceleration in the separation rate between South America and Antarctica preceding the initial opening of the Drake Passage. These extensional depocenters were superimposed to the previous distal foredeep depocenter, postdating the initiation of the foredeep phase and the onset of compressional deformation. Another pervasive set of normal faults of Paleocene to Recent age that can be recognized throughout the basins are interpreted to be a consequence of flexural bending of the lithosphere, in agreement with a previous study from South Malvinas basin. Contractional deformation was replaced by transpressive kinematics during the Oligocene due to a major tectonic plate reorganization. Presently, while the South Malvinas basin is dominated by the transpressive uplift of its active margin with minor sediment supply, the westward basins undergo localized development of pull-apart depocenters and transpressional uplift of previous structures. The effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere for different sections of each basin is calculated using a dynamic finite element numerical model that simulates the lithospheric response to advancing tectonic load with active sedimentation.  相似文献   

Food production and climate protection—What abandoned lands can do to preserve natural forests     

Thomas Knoke  Baltazar Calvas  Santiago Ochoa Moreno  Jonathan C. Onyekwelu  Verena C. Griess 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1064-1072

Approaches to reconciling food production with climatic and environmental protection often require agricultural intensification. The production of more food per unit of agricultural land through “sustainable intensification” is intended to enable the protection of natural ecosystems elsewhere (land sparing). However, there are problems associated with agricultural intensification; such as soil erosion, eutrophication or pollution of water bodies with chemicals, landscape homogenization and loss of biodiversity; for which solutions have not yet been found. Reuse of abandoned agricultural lands – which are abundant throughout the world – to address the rising demand for food is a potentially important alternative, which up to now has been widely ignored. To test the power of this alternative, equilibrium economic land allocation to various land-use practices by risk-avoiding tropical farmers in Ecuador was simulated. The reestablishment of pastures on abandoned cattle lands lowered prices for pasture products, and also triggered conversion of existing pasture into cropland. The resulting land-use change increased total annual food production in a moderate scenario from the current level of 17.8–23.1 petacalories (10¹⁵ calories), which amounted to a production increase of 30%. At the same time, there was a 19% reduction in the amount of payments to farmers required to preserve tropical forests – one of the world's greatest terrestrial carbon stores.  相似文献   

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marta Llopart  Erika Coppola  Filippo Giorgi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Santiago V. Cuadra 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):111-125

We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs.  相似文献   

Leaf retention in streams of the Agüera basin (northern Spain)     

Santiago Larrañaga  José Ramón Díez  Arturo Elosegi  Jesús Pozo 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2003,65(2):158-166

  相似文献