Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses     

Murphy  Sarah J.  Washington  Richard  Downing  Thomas E.  Martin  Randall V.  Ziervogel  Gina  Preston  Anthony  Todd  Martin  Butterfield  Ruth  Briden  Jim 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):171-196

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.  相似文献   

Assessment of flow–ecology relationships for environmental flow standards: a synthesis focused on the southeast USA     

Sarah Praskievicz  Cehong Luo 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(4):571-582

ABSTRACT

Environmental flow standards are a management tool that can help to protect the ecosystem services sustained by rivers. Although environmental flow requirements can be assessed using a variety of methods, most of these methods require establishing relationships between flow and habitat of species of concern. Here, we conducted a synthesis of past flow–ecology studies in the southeast USA. For each state or interstate river basin, we used the published data to determine the flow metrics that resulted in the greatest changes in ecological metrics, and the ecological metrics that were most sensitive to hydrologic alteration. The flow metrics that were most important in preserving ecological metrics were high-flow duration and frequency, 3-day maximum and minimum, and number of reversals. The ecological metrics most sensitive to hydrologic alteration were mostly related to presence or absence of key indicator species.  相似文献   

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary     

Oros DR  Jarman WM  Lowe T  David N  Lowe S  Davis JA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,46(9):1102-1110

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.  相似文献   

Burning issues: Whiteness, rurality and the politics of difference   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sarah L. Holloway 《Geoforum》2007,38(1):7-20

In the past decade geographers have critiqued the exclusivity of idyllic representations of rurality and sought to explore the diverse experiences of Other social groups in the countryside. This paper builds upon that small but significant strand of research which has highlighted the whiteness of representations of rurality and the consequences of this for racialised minorities. These debates have been crucially important in forwarding our understanding of racially-exclusive constructions of idyllic country living; however, it is important that academics neither assume that such ideas are forever fixed, nor that they affect all minority ethnic groups in the same ways. This paper takes both the potential power and frailty of these ideas seriously, as it examines how the concepts of race, racism and rurality are deployed by different commentators as they debate the place of one specific minority ethnic group in the English countryside. The route taken into this is a consideration of print-media reporting of events in Firle, Sussex, where, in 2003, some white rural residents symbolically purged their village of Gypsy-Travellers by burning a mock caravan complete with effigies at their annual bonfire celebrations. In conclusion, the paper challenges the relative lack of attention to these issues within the white-dominated discipline of geography, and argues that it is imperative to trace the dynamic ways in which the whiteness of idyllic understandings of the rural are reinforced and challenged through contemporary social practice.  相似文献   

The Green Revolution re-assessed: Insider perspectives on agrarian change in Bulandshahr District, Western Uttar Pradesh, India     

Sarah Jewitt  Kathleen Baker 《Geoforum》2007,38(1):73-89

In spite of raising Asian per capita food production by 27% and making India food self-sufficient, the Green Revolution has received much criticism for its environmental and socio-economic impacts. Taking on board post-development critiques of ‘speaking for’ Third World ‘others’, this paper seeks to examine the Green Revolution from the points of view of people directly affected by it. Comparative, historically-informed research in three villages for which 1972 baseline data exist reveal that the Green Revolution has ensured, in the words of one marginal farmer that ‘nobody sleeps with an empty stomach nowadays’. Most villagers associate the Green Revolution with increases in living standards and weakening community-based wealth hierarchies. Nevertheless, socio-economic inequalities between certain Scheduled Castes and other villagers are still very apparent.  相似文献   

Generalisation of a Nonlinear Dynamo Model     

Tanner  Sarah E. M.  Hughes  D. W. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1998,42(3):343-349

In order to gain a better understanding of the physical processes underlying fast dynamo action it is instructive to investigate the structure of both the magnetic field and the velocity field after the dynamo saturates. Previously, computational results have been presented (Cattaneo, Hughes and Kim, 1996) that indicate, in particular, that Lagrangian chaos is suppressed in the dynamical regime of the dynamo. Here we extend their model by removing the assumption of neglecting the inertial term. This allows for an investigation into the effect of this term on the evolution of the dynamo via a comparison of the two models. Our results indicate that this term plays a crucial role in the physics of the dynamo.  相似文献   

Chlorinated cooling waters in the marine environment: Development of effluent guidelines     

Judith M. Capuzzo  Joel C. Goldman  John A. Davidson  Sarah A. Lawrence 《Marine pollution bulletin》1977,8(7):161-163

The effects of free chlorine and chloramine on stage I lobster larvae and juvenile killifish were investigated in continuous flow bioassay units. In comparing mortality and changes in standard respiration rates during and after exposure to either chlorine form, significant respiratory stress was observed with exposure to sublethal levels. Sublethal responses to free and combined chlorine should be considered when establishing regulations for chlorine residuals in cooling waters.  相似文献   

Concentration–discharge relationships reflect chemostatic characteristics of US catchments     

Sarah E. Godsey  James W. Kirchner  David W. Clow 《水文研究》2009,23(13):1844-1864

Concentration–discharge relationships have been widely used as clues to the hydrochemical processes that control runoff chemistry. Here we examine concentration–discharge relationships for solutes produced primarily by mineral weathering in 59 geochemically diverse US catchments. We show that these catchments exhibit nearly chemostatic behaviour; their stream concentrations of weathering products such as Ca, Mg, Na, and Si typically vary by factors of only 3 to 20 while discharge varies by several orders of magnitude. Similar patterns are observed at the inter‐annual time scale. This behaviour implies that solute concentrations in stream water are not determined by simple dilution of a fixed solute flux by a variable flux of water, and that rates of solute production and/or mobilization must be nearly proportional to water fluxes, both on storm and inter‐annual timescales. We compared these catchments' concentration–discharge relationships to the predictions of several simple hydrological and geochemical models. Most of these models can be forced to approximately fit the observed concentration–discharge relationships, but often only by assuming unrealistic or internally inconsistent parameter values. We propose a new model that also fits the data and may be more robust. We suggest possible tests of the new model for future studies. The relative stability of concentration under widely varying discharge may help make aquatic environments habitable. It also implies that fluxes of weathering solutes in streams, and thus fluxes of alkalinity to the oceans, are determined primarily by water fluxes. Thus, hydrology may be a major driver of the ocean‐alkalinity feedback regulating climate change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth,retreat and dynamics     

Sarah L. Greenwood  Chris D. Clark 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(27-28):3101-3123

The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel – Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid collapse would sever the ties between the British and Irish Ice Sheets and drive flow configuration changes in response. Enhanced calving and flow acceleration in response to rising relative sea level is speculated to have undermined the integrity of the ice stream system, precipitating its collapse and driving the reconstructed pattern of ice sheet evolution.  相似文献   

Evidence of space weathering in regolith breccias II: Asteroidal regolith breccias     

Sarah K. NOBLE  Lindsay P. KELLER  Carlé M. PIETERS 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(12):2007-2015

Abstract– Space weathering products, such as agglutinates and nanophase iron‐bearing rims are easily preserved through lithification in lunar regolith breccias, thus such products, if produced, should be preserved in asteroidal regolith breccias as well. A study of representative regolith breccia meteorites, Fayetteville (H4) and Kapoeta (howardite), was undertaken to search for physical evidence of space weathering on asteroids. Amorphous or npFe⁰‐bearing rims cannot be positively identified in Fayetteville, although possible glass rims were found. Extensive friction melt was discovered in the meteorite that is difficult to differentiate from weathered materials. Several melt products, including spherules and agglutinates, as well as one irradiated rim and one possible npFe⁰‐bearing rim were identified in Kapoeta. The existence of these products suggests that lunar‐like space weathering processes are, or have been, active on asteroids.  相似文献