A severe autumn storm over the middle-east: synoptic and mesoscale convection analysis     

U. Dayan  B. Ziv  A. Margalit  E. Morin  D. Sharon 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2001,69(1-2):103-122

Summary  At times, a pronounced trough of low barometric pressure extends from equatorial Africa northward, over the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean countries, i.e., the Red Sea Trough. The associated weather is usually hot and dry, and consequently the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable. In cases in which additional moisture is supplied and dynamic conditions become supportive, as the case analyzed here, intense thunderstorms occur, with extreme rain rates, hail and floods. The storm herein analyzed caused extensive damage both in casualties and property and evolved in two main consecutive phases: In the first a Mesoscale Convective System that moved from Sinai northward over Israel dominated, and in the second deep convection was organized mainly along a cold front. Data analysis indicates several synoptic-scale factors that had a supportive effect on the storm formation and intensification: Conditional instability established by the Red Sea trough, mid-level moisture transport from Northern Africa, and upper-level divergence imparted by both polar and subtropical jet streams over the Middle-East. Mesoscale features were further investigated by means of a hydro-meteorological observational analysis with high spatio-temporal resolution using raingauge and radar data, and satellite imagery. It is shown that local factors, particularly topographic effects, play a major role in the evolution, intensity and spatial organization of the convective activity. Our findings support results of a numerical study of another autumn rainstorm associated with the Red Sea trough. In the present case we identify an additional contributing factor, i.e., a mid-latitude upper-level trough that further intensified the storm as it was approaching the Middle-East. Received July 4, 2000 Revised January 16, 2001  相似文献   

Biofouling confounds the uptake of trace organic contaminants by semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs)     

Richardson BJ  Lam PK  Zheng GJ  McClellan KE  De Luca-Abbott SB 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(12):1372-1379

The outer layers of layflat, low density polyethylene plastic tubing (the principal component of semi-permeable membrane devices, SPMDs) were biofouled at a clean site in Hong Kong coastal waters for periods of 1–4 weeks. Following pre-fouling, triolein was added to the SPMDs and, along with control (unfouled) devices, they were exposed to a range of organochlorine pesticides (-HCH, aldrin, p,p^′-DDT) and PAHs (anthracene, fluoranthene and benzo(a)pyrene) under laboratory conditions. Results showed that the uptake of contaminants by SPMDs was severely reduced by as much as 50% under fouling conditions in comparison to unfouled controls. The ultimate utility of SPMDs as passive monitors is thus reduced, although alternative measures, such as the use of permeability reference compounds may compensate, and allow for realistic evaluations of dissolved environmental concentrations in aquatic environments. However, due to the complexities involved in such procedures––especially as they need to be conducted on a case-by-case basis––the utility of SPMDs appears to be limited for estimates of bioavailability unless necessary calibrations are undertaken within each environment that the sampler is used.  相似文献   

Diurnal variation in the spatial structure of rainfall in the Northern Negev desert Israel     

H. Kutiel  Prof. D. Sharon 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1981,29(3):239-243

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Using Shoreline Video Assessment for coastal planning and restoration in the context of climate change in Kien Giang,Vietnam     

Van Cuong  Chu  Russell  Michael  Brown  Sharon  Dart  Peter 《Ocean Science Journal》2015,50(2):413-432

Kien Giang, bordering Cambodia in the Mekong River Delta, is one of the two most vulnerable provinces in the region to coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal protection can conflict with current land use and economic development activities. The conditions of the mangrove forest and mainland coastline of the Kien Giang province were assessed using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method (SVAM) backed up with information from satellite images. Half of the 206 km Kien Giang coastline has been eroded or is being eroded. Protective mangrove forests naturally occurred in 74% of the coastline but have been under threat from illegal cutting, erosion and coastal retreat. Accurate information on the state of the coastline and mangrove forest health provided invaluable data for developing a new coastal rehabilitation plan to guard against future sea level rise. In contrast to the current boundary management of land and natural resources, this plan divided the provincial coastline into 19 sections based on the landscape condition and exposure to erosion. Priority strategic actions for erosion management, mangrove restoration and sustainable livelihood development for local communities for each section of coast were developed based on an integrated cross sectoral approach and practical experience in the Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project.

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Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gurdak JJ  McCray JE  Thyne G  Qi SL 《Ground water》2007,45(3):348-361

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.  相似文献   

Assessing the response of watersheds to catastrophic (logging) and possible secular (global temperature change) perturbations using sediment-chemical chronologies     

David T. Long  Matthew J. Parsons  Catherine H. Yansa  Sharon S. Yohn  Colleen E. McLean  Ryan G. Vannier 《Applied Geochemistry》2010

Geochemical profiles of sediment cores from two oligotrophic lakes (Elk and Mullett) in northern Lower Michigan were studied to examine the response and recovery of watersheds to large-scale logging that occurred between 1850 and 1920. Specific questions addressed were: can the impact of extensive clear-cutting of forests be recognized in the sediment-chemical chronologies, can states of system stability be identified prior to the logging, and are there indications that the systems are recovering and possibly returning to a stable state? To answer these questions, elements were put into four groups as proxies for watershed runoff or export (e.g., Al, Mg), pollution (e.g., Pb, Cu), redox (e.g., Fe, As), and productivity (e.g., Ca, P). It was observed that vertical patterns of all proxies were influenced by logging and the early increases in concentration of pollution proxies were due to increased watershed export, not pollution. System stability might be recognized by relatively symmetrical vertical patterns among all of the proxies or secular changes of slowly increasing or decreasing vertical concentration trajectories. Some pre-logging trajectories were punctuated by episodes of slightly elevated concentrations that appear to be related to comparatively warmer periods during the Little Ice Age. Iron and Mn enrichments caused by increased watershed runoff might be misinterpreted as paleo-redox horizons. Results are interpreted to indicate that (1) reference conditions may be better defined as the temporal trends among proxy groups and not individual concentrations, (2) simply assuming pre-1800 conditions as a reference may not be appropriate, (3) inter-proxy group comparisons are needed to help for interpretations of intra-proxy group patterns, (4) the possible regime shift identified here might be expected for other ecosystems because of the intensity of human disturbances and secular changes, and (5) without consideration of a possible regime shift, recovery from logging is estimated to be on the order of 75–130 a, but shorter if regime shifts are considered.  相似文献   

Scales of perception: public awareness of regional and neighborhood climates     

Darren Ruddell  Sharon L. Harlan  Susanne Grossman-Clarke  Gerardo Chowell 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):581-607

Understanding public perceptions of climate is critical for developing an effective strategy to mitigate the effects of human activity on the natural environment and reduce human vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. While recent climate assessments document change among various physical systems (e.g., increased temperature, sea level rise, shrinking glaciers), environmental perceptions are relatively under-researched despite the fact that there is growing skepticism and disconnect between climate science and public opinion. This study utilizes a socio-ecological research framework to investigate how public perceptions compared with environmental conditions in one urban center. Specifically, air temperature during an extreme heat event was examined as one characteristic of environmental conditions by relating simulations from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model with self-reported perceptions of regional and neighborhood temperatures from a social survey of Phoenix, AZ (USA) metropolitan area residents. Results indicate that: 1) human exposure to high temperatures varies substantially throughout metropolitan Phoenix; 2) public perceptions of temperature are more strongly correlated with proximate environmental conditions than with distal conditions; and 3) perceptions of temperature are related to social characteristics and situational variables. The social constructionist paradigm explains public perceptions at the regional scale, while experience governs attitude formation at the neighborhood scale.  相似文献   

A low-level jet along the Benguela coast, an integral part of the Benguela current ecosystem     

Sharon E. Nicholson 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):613-624

The Benguela Current Ecosystem of Southern Africa is the strongest wind-driven coastal upwelling system known. This is one of the most productive ocean areas in the world, extremely rich in fishery resources with a total catch in excess of one million tons per annum. Marine life off the coast relies heavily on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current. Warming events occur along this coast in association with many El Niños. These tremendously disrupt the coastal ecosystem, reducing productivity and devastating the anchovy and sardine fisheries. This article demonstrates for the first time the existence of a low-level atmospheric jet along the Benguela Coast of the southeastern Atlantic. Blowing parallel to the coast, this jet drives the coastal upwelling system and is part of a mechanism that links Pacific El Niño events to Southern Africa. The existence of such a jet has tremendous implications for the Benguela current and its response to climatic variability and change because a positive feedback exists between the intensity of this jet and the intensity of coastal upwelling. This may enhance the response of the Benguela Current Ecosystem to climatic variability, making it particularly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change.  相似文献   

Trends in 1,4-Dioxane Analyses: Implications for Identification and Characterization of Contaminated Groundwater Sites     

David T. Adamson PhD  PE  Grayson Uhlir BS  Sharon R. Rauch BA  Tessa Klein BS  Anthony S. Danko PhD  PE 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2021,41(3):29-40

1,4-Dioxane is a contaminant of emerging concern, and there is significant uncertainty about how its environmental occurrence in groundwater is being assessed given the various analytical methods available. This study compiled public sampling records from 2000 to 2019 that included >106,000 analyses of 1,4-dioxane from 822 different U.S. sites. The 1,4-dioxane detection frequency in the entire dataset (including all methods) was 45%, and the median detected concentration was 10 μg/L, highlighting the dilute nature of 1,4-dioxane in environmental media and the importance of selecting methods with adequate sensitivity. The annual distribution of samples analyzed by each method type confirmed a shift towards methods designed for semi-volatile compounds (Method 8270 and Method 8270 SIM) that exhibited consistently lower reporting limits (median reporting limit for each year typically ≤1 μg/L). In contrast, the method designed for volatile compounds (Method 8260) exhibited less sensitivity for 1,4-dioxane (median reporting limit per year between 40 and 100 μg/L) and its use declined significantly over time with increasing use of the moderately sensitive Method 8260 SIM in later years. This shift contributed to an increase in the 1,4-dioxane detection frequency over time, with a strong correlation between the annual detection frequency and the median reporting limit. Sites where 1,4-dioxane was analyzed but not detected overwhelmingly used less-sensitive methods that may not have been adequate for the expected concentration levels. Given the sub-μg/L groundwater criteria issued for 1,4-dioxane by some regulatory agencies, more sensitive and accurate methods will be increasingly needed to assess compliance.  相似文献   

Historical and Modern Fluctuations of Lakes Tanganyika and Rukwa and Their Relationship to Rainfall Variability     

Sharon E. Nicholson 《Climatic change》1999,41(1):53-71

This paper describes the fluctuations of Lakes Tanganyika and Rukwa over the last two centuries. Lake chronologies extending back to the late eighteenth century are derived from reports of European visitors, settlers and explorers and from oral accounts of the local peoples. The historical fluctuations are meshed with the modern record to provide a picture of the lakes' fluctuations until the late twentieth century. The historical fluctuations of the lakes are quite similar. The most important of these are low levels during the first half of the nineteenth century, very high stands in the last decades of the nineteenth century, and, around the turn of the century, a rapid fall to twentieth century levels. This pattern is ubiquitous throughout eastern Africa and is apparent in numerous other lakes, including Victoria, Naivasha, Stefanie, Turkana, Malawi and Chilwa. Driest periods were in the 1920s or earlier and in the 1950s. Lake Tanganyika returned to extremely high stands in the 1960s and has continued to maintain relatively high stands since that time. Lake Rukwa rose to high stands during the 1980s and maintained them for several years. An analysis of rainfall variability shows that these trends are generally explained by variations in catchment rainfall. However, the lakes' responses to rainfall variability are sometimes dissimilar because Lake Rukwa is a closed basin. Our results demonstrate the complexity of the rainfall/lake-level relationships and the need to use water balance relationships in order to interpret the lakes' historical or paleo-fluctuations in terms of rainfall.  相似文献