台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析   总被引：3，自引：6，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

麻素红  瞿安祥张眙 《应用气象学报》2004,15(3):322-328

国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式经过串行优化及程序并行, 成功地实现了在国产超级计算机神威上的并行运算, 并可满足业务时效要求。基于并行程序及神威机计算平台的台风路径数值预报业务系统于2002年6月30日投入实时运行, 其初估场与侧边界条件从T106L19模式产品升级为T213L31模式产品 (称为基于T213台风预报系统, 原串行系统称为基于T106台风预报系统)。通过对2002年夏秋季台风路径的检验, 总体来看, 基于T213台风预报系统48 h内的平均路径预报误差小于基于T106台风预报系统的路径预报误差。对西行及西北行登陆的台风, 基于T106台风预报系统的48 h预报好于基于T213台风预报系统的预报。对于转向台风而言, 转向后的预报, 基于T213台风预报系统的预报要好于基于T106台风预报系统的预报, 有效地减小了基于T106台风预报系统对转向台风路径预报的系统性误差:即台风转向后预报路径较实况路径偏西。  相似文献   

国家级气象资料存储检索系统的建立   总被引：6，自引：8，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

沈文海赵芳  高华云高峰 马强 《应用气象学报》2004,15(6):727-736

对国家级气象资料存储检索系统的需求进行了分析，进而对系统进行了功能设计，并在技术调研和分析的基础上确定了功能实现的技术路线:在数据管理方面采用数据库和文件系统相结合的方式；在存储管理方面采用分级存储管理模式，并解决了数据库的分级存储管理技术；在检索应用方面提供了程序调用式检索方式，并通过采用中间件技术实现了基于B/S结构的程序调用式检索；通过选用HPSS技术解决了由异种机型构成的高性能计算机群存储池问题；通过分别建立实时数据库和综合数据库解决了气象资料的规范化存储和实时业务使用需求之间的矛盾；在应用软件开发方面严格按照有关规范进行。  相似文献   

用远场辐射场反演云闪放电参数   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

祝宝友  陶善昌  马明  吕伟涛 《气象学报》2004,62(4):498-503

用地面电磁场遥感闪电放电参数无论是在实际应用还是理论研究中都具有重要意义。文中基于电流传输线模式 ,提出了一种用单站远场VLF/LF辐射场反演云内放电参数的简便方法。当传输线电流从底部传播到顶部的时间只有几微秒时 ,整个传输线的VLF/LF辐射可以近似成偶极子辐射 ,即远场辐射场与电流的时间变化率和传输线长度的乘积成正比。因此 ,对远场辐射场做时间积分就能获得完整的电流矩波形 (上升沿有所加宽 ) ,而且传输线模式中的重要参数 ,电流从底部传播到顶端经历的时间 ,也可以近似地用辐射场时间积分幅度与辐射场幅度之比来估计。这一方法具有估计云闪双极性大脉冲辐射过程的放电参数的潜力。  相似文献   

加强气象依法行政促进气象事业发展          下载免费PDF全文

吴海颖  马朝鹏  陈虎胜 《山西气象》2004,(4):41-43

随着“依法治国”方略在气象部门的贯彻，作为气象行政执法主体机关，气象部门应如何搞好依法行政，保证气象事业快速有序发展，从而更好地为经济社会服务，本文从目前气象依法行政工作中面临的主要问题出发，结合市(地)气象部门的实际情况，提出了今后气象依法行政要做好的五方面工作。  相似文献   

Beryllium-10 in Australasian tektites: Constraints on the location of the source crater     

P. Ma  K. Aggrey  C. Tonzola  C. Schnabel  P. de Nicola  J.T. Wasson  L. Brown  R. Middleton 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(19):3883-3896

By using accelerator mass spectrometry we have measured the ¹⁰Be concentrations of 86 Australasian tektites. Corrected to the time of tektite production ∼0.8 My ago, the ¹⁰Be concentrations (10⁶ atom/g) range from 59 for a layered tektite from Huai Sai, Thailand, to 280 for an australite from New South Wales, Australia. The average value is 143 ± 50. When tektites are sorted by country, their average measured ¹⁰Be concentrations increase slowly with increasing distance from Southeast Asia, the probable location of the tektite producing event, from 59 ± 9 for 6 layered tektites from Laos to 136 ± 20 for 20 splash-form tektites from Australia. The lowest ¹⁰Be concentrations for tektites fall on or within a contour centered off the shore of Vietnam, south of the Gulf of Tonkin (107°E; 17°N), but also encompassing two other locations in the area of northeastern Thailand previously proposed for the site of a single tektite-producing impact. The ¹⁰Be concentrations of layered tektites show only a weak anticorrelation (R ∼ −0.3) with the numbers of relict crystalline inclusions.Loosely consolidated, fine-grained terrestrial sediments or recently consolidated sedimentary rocks are the most likely precursor materials. Dilution of sediments with other kinds of rock raises problems in mixing and is not supported by petrographic data. Sedimentary columns that have the right range of ¹⁰Be concentrations occur off the coasts of places where sedimentation rates are high relative to those in the deep sea. A single impact into such a region, 15 to 300 m thick, could have propelled near-surface, high-¹⁰Be material farthest—to Australia—while keeping the deeper-lying, low-¹⁰Be layers closer to home. We do not rule out, however, other proposed mechanisms for tektite formation.  相似文献   

Reply to the comment by Wen-Bin Zhu et al. on “Characteristics and dynamic origin of the large-scale Jiaoluotage ductile compressional zone in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China”     

Xing-Wang Xu  Tian-Lin Ma   《Journal of Structural Geology》2004,26(12):2337-2340

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Thermo-mechanical structure beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan     

Kuo-Fong Ma  Teh-Ru Alex Song 《Tectonophysics》2004,388(1-4):21

We investigate the thermo-mechanical properties beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan by constructing a shear strength profile from a vertical stratified rheological structure. The stratified rheological structure is estimated based on the recently developed thermal structure and its likely composition. Subduction–collision in the young orogenic belts and the thick accretionary wedge make a significant contribution to the growth of sialic crust in the hinterland. The sialic bulk crust not only results in a low seismic velocity but also produces weak crust in the hinterland. The earthquake depth–frequency distribution in the foreland and hinterland correlates very well with the regimes of the brittle/ductile transition revealed in the strength profile. Our results show that the observed two-layer seismicity in the foreland is due to a moderate geotherm and an intermediate mafic bulk composition; while single-layer seismicity in the hinterland is due to its felsic bulk composition. In the foreland, the mechanically strong crust (MSC) and the mechanically strong lithosphere (MSL) coincide with frequent seismicity. The shallow MSC in the hinterland is consistent with the 20- to 25-km seismicity occurring there. The total lithospheric integrated strength (LIS) in the hinterland is only about half of that in the foreland, suggesting a weak lower crust and lithosphere mantle in the hinterland. The results confirm that the earthquake cutoff depth is a proxy for temperature. The calculated decrease of effective elastic thickness (EET) from the orogenic margin (foreland) to the center (hinterland) is consistent with the results of flexure modeling in most orogenic belts. Due to the weak LIS in the hinterland, crustal thinning and rifting may occur in the future. Our results, thus, suggest that the mechanical structure is also closely related to the composition and is not directly reflected in the thermal structure.  相似文献   

基于等高线的DEM生成算法研究和实现   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

刘锦中  马辉 《现代测绘》2004,27(3):34-35,48

数字高程模型是近年来发展起来的为地理信息系统提供空间分析和辅助决策的数据基础。随着科学技术特别是计算机技术的迅速发展，DEM在数据获取方法、数据存储和数据处理速度等方面已经取得突破性进展。通过系统介绍生成DTM过程中等高线的离散化方法，DELAUNAY三角网的特性和基于等高线数据的TIN的建立，以及对产生的问题的一些解决方法。  相似文献   

2004年陕西春季沙尘天气环流特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

侯明全  王旭仙 《山西气象》2005,(2):1-4

应用我们已经建立的《阳泉市短期冰雹预报系统》分析预报阳泉市2004年6月份出现的连续冰雹天气,特别是该系统中的指标叠加方法,效果较好。  相似文献   

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析          下载免费PDF全文

高菊霞  李建芳 《山西气象》2005,(2):5-8

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。  相似文献