Simplified seismic fragility analysis of structures with two types of friction devices     

Silvia L. Dimova  Kazuta Hirata 《地震工程与结构动力学》2000,29(8):1153-1175

This paper presents a method and results of seismic fragility estimation of frame structures with friction devices and with friction devices and restrictors. The seismic intensity parameter, defined as the mean value of the pseudovelocity spectrum in a specified periods band, is proved to allow the use of linear regression analysis of the response parameters of the considered non‐linear structures on seismic intensity. A simplified method of fragility estimation is proposed, based on the concept of ‘mean seismic excitation’ and linear regression of the seismic response parameters on seismic intensity parameter. The key risk contributors for the system with friction devices and for the system with friction devices and restrictors are identified on the basis of the fragility analysis, and recommendations for improvement of the seismic response of the respective systems are derived. The results of the fragility study show that when the initial ‘bare’ frame is retrofitted by rigidly connected bracings the effect is much lower than in the case of connecting the bracings by friction devices and especially by friction devices and restrictors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Monitoring forest areas from continental to territorial levels using a sample of medium spatial resolution satellite imagery     

Hugh Eva  Silvia Carboni  Frédéric Achard  Nicolas Stach  Laurent Durieux  Jean-François Faure  Danilo Mollicone 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2010,65(2):191-197

A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems.  相似文献   

The initiation of the southern central Great Barrier Reef: New multiproxy data from Pleistocene distal sediments from the Marion Plateau (NE Australia)     

Nathalie Dubois  Pascal Kindler  Silvia Spezzaferri  Stjepan Coric   《Marine Geology》2008,250(3-4):223-233

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 ( 400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.  相似文献   

The sandy beach macrofauna of Gulf of Gabès (Tunisia)     

Silvia Pérez-Domingo  Carolina Castellanos  & Juan Junoy 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(S1):51-59

This study describes the macrofauna of the three beaches situated in central Gulf of Gabès (Tunisia): Ouderef, Gabès and Zarrat. The Gulf of Gabès has the largest tides in the Mediterranean and the beaches showed a wide intertidal zone. The beaches were sampled once during the spring low tides of June 2005. A transect was extended at each beach, from above the drift line to below the swash line at five sampled levels; at each level six 0.05 m² replicates were taken to a depth of 30 cm and sieved through a 1-mm mesh, and the organisms collected and preserved. The three beaches showed a different physical environment. Sediment type was medium sand at the steeper Ouderef beach, fine sands at Gàbes beach, and very fine sands at the flatter Zarrat beach. The total number of species collected was 31: 12 crustaceans, 10 polychaetes, four molluscs and five insects. The supralittoral and mediolittoral zones were very different. The supralittoral zone was dominated by Talitrus saltator and insects. The most abundant mediolittoral species were the amphipod crustacean Bathyporeia guilliamsoniana at Ouderef beach (23069 ind.m⁻¹), the surf clam Donax trunculus at Gabès beach (60711 ind.m⁻¹) and the spionid polychaete Scolelepis mesnili at Zarrat beach (18345.6 ind.m⁻¹).  相似文献   

Regulation of the fishing activities in the lagoon of Venice,Italy: Results from a socio-economic study     

Paulo A.L.D. Nunes  Silvia Silvestri  Michele Pellizzato  Vasco Boatto 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

In the last years, the overall fish industry in the lagoon of Venice has shown a gradual decline. In order to better understand this process, we carry out a socio-economic questionnaire next to the fisherman population. Questionnaire contains significant qualitative and quantitative data that allow us to evaluate the social and the cultural profile of the respondents, including information with respect to the different technological fishing characteristics involved, type and amount of the species harvested as well as the overall productivity of the activity. Furthermore, the questionnaire contains an economic valuation exercise so as to assess in monetary terms the preferences of the fishermen with respect to different alternative policy options that may characterize a future regulation of this economic activity. Estimation results show that fishermen welcome any regulation initiative that is characterized by: (1) banning all fishing activities during the night, (2) allocating fishing concessions areas to each fishermen in a way that minimize the distance between the fishing area and the harbor, and (3) by introducing of a labeling mechanism that certifies the origin of the product. Moreover, the underlying economic valuation mechanism reveals to sensitive to respondent's motivational profile, including the overall trust and confidence that fisherman community places on the current institutional bodies. This result reveals to be of particular significance when attempting the design of an efficient, widely supported regulation of the fishing activity in the lagoon of Venice.  相似文献   

Additive effects of climate change and human hunting explain population decline and extinction in cave bears     

Alessandro Mondanaro  Mirko Di Febbraro  Marina Melchionna  Francesco Carotenuto  Silvia Castiglione  Carmela Serio  Simone Danisi  Lorenzo Rook  Jose Alexandre F. Diniz‐Filho  Pasquale Raia 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(3):605-615

Cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) are an iconic component of the European late Quaternary Ice Age megafauna. Recent demographic analyses based on cave bear mtDNA sequences and refined radiocarbon dating indicate that cave bear population size and genetic diversity started to decline some 50 kilo years ago (kya). Hence, neither the coldest phase of the last glaciation (started some 24 kya), nor the colonization of Europe by Palaeolithic hunters (started some 45 kya) coincides with the beginning of population decline. Here, we reconstructed cave bear climatic niche evolution through time. Then, we performed spatially explicit population viability analyses to assess cave bear demographics through time in response to climatic changes, human effects on bear survival and their combination. We found that climate change was responsible for a 10‐fold decrease in cave bear population size after 40 kya. However, climate change on its own could not explain U. spelaeus extinction at 24 kya. Additional negative effects consistent with human population expansion are required to explain both U. spelaeus' retreat from eastern Europe since 40 kya and its final extinction.  相似文献   

Influence of the Sonic Anemometer Temperature Calibration on Turbulent Heat-Flux Measurements     

Renzo Richiardone  Massimiliano Manfrin  Silvia Ferrarese  Caterina Francone  Vito Fernicola  Roberto Maria Gavioso  Luca Mortarini 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,142(3):425-442

The speed of sound in moist air is discussed and a more accurate value for the coefficient of the linear dependence of sonic temperature on specific humidity is proposed. An analysis of speed-of-sound data measured by three sonic anemometers in a climate chamber and in the field shows that the temperature response of each instrument significantly influences not only the determination of sonic temperature, but also its fluctuations. The corresponding relative contribution to the error in the evaluation of the temperature fluctuations and the turbulent heat fluxes can be as high as 40%. The calibration procedure is discussed and a method of correction is proposed.  相似文献   

The spatial distribution of X-ray selected AGN in the Chandra deep fields: a theoretical perspective     

Federico Marulli  Silvia Bonoli  Enzo Branchini  Roberto Gilli  Lauro Moscardini  Volker Springel 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(3):1404-1414

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Indigenous perception of changes in climate variability and its relationship with agriculture in a Zoque community of Chiapas, Mexico     

Maria Silvia Sánchez-Cortés  Elena Lazos Chavero 《Climatic change》2011,107(3-4):363-389

This study analyses the perceptions of Zoque indigenous men and women of changes in climate variability, indicated by rainfall and temperature records from the region. Peasant farmers perceive decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature as these factors are related to modifications in the corn planting season and the introduction of crops which were usually only found in hot regions. The climate changes in the zone are attributed to vegetation loss and the eruption of the Chichón volcano in 1982. The Zoque perception is structured according to cultural and individual experience, tied to agriculture and the annual weather calendar. The volcanic eruption offers a significant chronological reference point in order to explain different environmental transformations, such as climate, within Zoque territory. Perception is the mental picture of local climate variability changes and the responses in seasonal agriculture modifications, utilizing individual and cultural experiences which are vulnerable to economic and environmental change.  相似文献   

Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources     

Pessacg Natalia  Flaherty Silvia  Solman Silvina  Pascual Miguel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(3):807-822

The current study presents an assessment of the impact of climate change on water yield, one of the main hydrological ecosystem services, in northern Patagonia. The outputs of regional climate models from the CORDEX Project for South America were used to drive the InVEST water yield model. CORDEX regional climate models project for the far future (2071–2100) an increase in temperature higher than 1.5 °C and a precipitation decrease ranging from − 10 to − 30% for the study area. The projected warmer and dryer climate emerges as a robust signal based on model agreement and on consistent physical drivers of these changes. Moreover, both the projected increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in precipitation contribute to a strong decrease in water yield of around − 20 to − 40% in the headwaters of northern Patagonian watersheds. Comparison of the results in the two basins reveals that the land cover may be considered a buffer of water yield changes and highlights the key role of protected areas in reducing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change.  相似文献