Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jongho Kim  Valeriy Y. Ivanov  Simone Fatichi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):923-944

Predictions of a warmer climate over the Great Lakes region due to global change generally agree on the magnitude of temperature changes, but precipitation projections exhibit dependence on which General Circulation Models and emission scenarios are chosen. To minimize model- and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were analyzed for mid- (2046–2065) and end-century (2081–2100) intervals, for six locations of a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. As a result of Bayesian Weighted Averaging, total annual precipitation averaged over all locations and the three emission scenarios increases by 7 % (mid-)–10 % (end-century), as compared to the control period (1961–1990). The projected changes across seasons are non-uniform and precipitation decreases by 3 % (mid-)–5 % (end-) for the months of August and September are likely. Further, average temperature is very likely to increase by 2.02–2.85 °C by the mid-century and 2.58–4.73 °C by the end-century. Three types of non-additive uncertainty sources due to climate models, anthropogenic forcings, and climate internal variability are addressed. When compared to the emission uncertainty, the relative magnitudes of the uncertainty types for climate model ensemble and internal variability are 149 and 225 % for mean monthly precipitation, and they are respectively 127 and 123 % for mean monthly temperature. A decreasing trend of the frost days and an increasing trend of the growing season length are identified. Also, a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected, with relatively more pronounced changes for heavy hourly rainfall as compared to daily events. Quantifying the inherent natural uncertainty and projecting hourly-based extremes, the study results deliver useful information for water resource stakeholders interested in impacts of climate change on hydro-morphological processes.  相似文献   

The importance of satellite quenching for the build-up of the red sequence of present-day galaxies     

Frank C. van den Bosch  Daniel Aquino  Xiaohu Yang  H. J. Mo  Anna Pasquali  Daniel H. McIntosh  Simone M. Weinmann  Xi Kang 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(1):79-91

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Mediterranean warming is especially due to summer season   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Giorgio Bartolini  Valentina di Stefano  Giampiero Maracchi  Simone Orlandini 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):279-295

We created a new homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data set (1955–2007) for the central Mediterranean area of Tuscany (Italy). Yearly and seasonal long-term trends of some climatic and extreme climatic indices were investigated. The results highlighted a positive trend for mean temperature of about 0.9°C per 50 years with a slightly more pronounced increase in maximum temperature. Seasonal analysis revealed a by far much greater increase in summer (June, July, August) and spring (March, April, May) temperature in respect of autumn and winter, this finding consistent with most recent Mediterranean evidences. Warm extremes showed an overall tendency to increase, while a slight not significant decrease trend was found in regard to frost days and cold extremes. Comparisons with different patterns of Mediterranean warming confirmed the magnitude of recent very fast rise in temperature, especially during summer. This change could be due to last decades modifications of general circulation patterns and land–temperature, land–precipitation positive feedback processes dependent from soil moisture. All these results confirm that the Mediterranean is a region especially responsive and thus very vulnerable to climate change.  相似文献   

Application of Advanced Analytics and Visualization in Mineral Systems     

MORRISON M. Shaunn  PRABHU Anirudh  ELEISH Ahme  PAN Feifei  ZHONG Hao  HUANG Fang  FOX Peter  MA Xiaogang  RALPH Jolyon  GOLDEN J. Joshu  DOWNS T. Robert  LIU Chao  RUNYON E. Simone  HAZEN M. Robert 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(Z1):55-55

正The key to answering many compelling and complex questions in Earth,planetary,and life science lies in breaking down the barriers between scientific fields and harnessing the integrated,multi-disciplinary power of Earth,planetary,and bioscience data resources.We have a unique opportunity to integrate large and rapidly expanding"big data"resources,to enlist powerful analytical and visualization methods,and to answer multi-disciplinary questions that cannot be addressed by one field alone.  相似文献   

Bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks: new challenges from structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry for post‐event analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Massimo Prosdocimi  Simone Calligaro  Giulia Sofia  Giancarlo Dalla Fontana  Paolo Tarolli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(14):1891-1906

Drainage channels are an integral part of agricultural landscapes, and their impact on catchment hydrology is strongly recognized. In cultivated and urbanized floodplains, channels have always played a key role in flood protection, land reclamation, and irrigation. Bank erosion is a critical issue in channels. Neglecting this process, especially during flood events, can result in underestimation of the risk in flood‐prone areas. The main aim of this work is to consider a low‐cost methodology for the analysis of bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks, and in particular for the estimation of the volumes of eroded and deposited material. A case study located in the Veneto floodplain was selected. The research is based on high‐resolution topographic data obtained by an emerging low‐cost photogrammetric method (structure‐from‐motion or SfM), and results are compared to terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data. For the SfM analysis, extensive photosets were obtained using two standalone reflex digital cameras and an iPhone5® built‐in camera. Three digital elevation models (DEMs) were extracted at the resolution of 0.1 m using SfM and were compared with the ones derived by TLS. Using the different DEMs, the eroded areas were then identified using a feature extraction technique based on the topographic parameter Roughness Index (RI). DEMs derived from SfM were effective for both detecting erosion areas and estimating quantitatively the deposition and erosion volumes. Our results underlined how smartphones with high‐resolution built‐in cameras can be competitive instruments for obtaining suitable data for topography analysis and Earth surface monitoring. This methodology could be potentially very useful for farmers and/or technicians for post‐event field surveys to support flood risk management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Local Holocene environmental indicators in Upper Mesopotamia: Pedogenic carbonate record vs. archaeobotanical data and archaeoclimatological models     

Simone Riehl  Konstantin E. Pustovoytov  Sara Hotchkiss  Reid A. Bryson   《Quaternary International》2009,209(1-2):154

It has been suggested that pedogenic carbonate coatings on stones in archaeological sites can be used to reconstruct late Quaternary environmental changes in the area of the Fertile Crescent. This research compares a pedogenic carbonate record from southeastern Turkey with three other local or regional sources of palaeoenvironmental information in order to evaluate the correlation of this new proxy with other independent data from the area: (1) ancient plant macroremains from archaeological sites as ecological indicators, (2) stable carbon isotope composition of ancient plant macroremains available in the literature and from our own investigations in six mid-Holocene archaeological sites, and (3) modelled Holocene precipitation and temperature changes in the northern Fertile Crescent. Comparison involved selected palynological and isotopic data from lacustrine sediments as well as speleothem isotopic records in Near Eastern locations available in the literature. Although the data show a certain amount of variation of proxy records on the regional scale, for the northern Fertile Crescent (Upper Mesopotamia) they suggest three pronounced features of the Holocene environmental history: (1) a trend toward warmer temperatures may have affected the area during the early Holocene (between ca. 10,000–6000 cal BP), (2) increased moisture availability and relatively high temperatures in the mid-Holocene (ca. between 5000 and 4000 cal BP), and (3) a significant decrease in moisture availability around 4000 cal BP.Further research is needed to enhance the chronological resolution of both pedogenic carbonate and plant macrofossil records. This study stresses the complexity of the Holocene palaeogeography of the Near East and underlines the need for careful analysis of local sources of palaeonvironmental information in the region.  相似文献   

Intrabasinal conditions promoting the development of a biogenic carbonate sedimentary facies associated with the seagrass Posidonia oceanica     

Giovanni De Falco  Maura Baroli  Andrea Cucco  Simone Simeone 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

This paper aims to elucidate the spatial relationships between the distribution and growth dynamics of Posidonia oceanica, the sedimentary depositional facies (carbonate vs. siliciclastic), and the hydrodynamic features of the Gulf of Oristano (Western Sardinia, Mediterranean sea), a complex depositional system characterized by multiple sources of sediments and a marked hydrodynamic gradient.  相似文献   

Organic matter characterisation of the Selli Level (Umbria-Marche Basin, central Italy)     

François Baudin  Nicolas Fiet  Rodolfo Coccioni  Simone Galeotti 《Cretaceous Research》1998,19(6):701-714

The Selli Level is a marker-bed in the Umbria-Marche Apennines that represents the regional sedimentary expression of the Lower Aptain Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a. This one to three-metre-thick interval shows a remarkable uniformity on a regional scale, with a green to grey marly lower part overlain by black shales. Bulk geochemical studies and an examination of palynofacies were carried out on three sections in order to characterise the distribution and nature of the organic matter in the Selli Level which has been poorly known hitherto. The organic content is medium (0.5 to 2.9% TOC) in the basal part and higher (4.5% on average, and up to 18% TOC) in the black shales. Pyrolysis and palynological data indicate that the organic matter is mainly of marine origin. The geochemical characteristics of the Selli Level are compared to other, more or less organic-rich marker-beds in the Cretaceous succession of the Umbria-Marche Apennines.

Abstract

Le Niveau Selli est un niveau-repère des Apennins d'Ombrie-Marches qui correspond à l'enregistrement régional de l'événement anoxique océanique 1a. Ce niveau, épais de un à trois mètres, présente une remarquable uniformité à l'échelle régionale avec une partie inférieure argileuse, verdâtre à grise, surmontée par des black shales. Des analyses géochimiques et l'examen des palynofacies ont été entreprises sur trois coupes afin de caractériser le contenu en matière organique du niveau Selli, jusqu'à présent mal connu. Les teneurs en carbone organique sont moyennes (0,5 à 2,9% COT) dans la partie basale et élevées (4,5% en moyenne et jusque 18% COT) dans les black shales. Les résultats de pyrolyse et des observations palynologiques indiquent que la matière organique est essentiellement d'origine marine. Les caractéristiques géochimiques du niveau Selli sont comparées aux autres niveaux repères, plus ou moins riches en carbone organique, qui émaillent la série du Crétacé du basin d'Ombrie-Marches.  相似文献   

Distribution of diatom assemblages and their relationship to environmental variables in the surface sediments of three northern Egyptian lakes     

Abdelfattah?ZalatEmail author  Simone Servant?Vildary 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,34(2):159-174

Surficial sediments of three northern Egyptian lakes (Manzala, Burullus and Edku) show differences in diatom assemblages deposited in different sites of these lakes. A total of 172 species and varieties belonging to 58 genera were identified and counted from 62 samples. Of these, 163 diatom taxa were recorded from Manzala Lake sediments, 147 taxa were found in Burullus Lake sediments, and 117 taxa were identified in Edku Lake sediments. The considerable variation in the composition and distribution of the diatom assemblages among these lakes was mainly related to differences in the water quality, salinity, the concentration of nutrients and climatic changes. The planktonic diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana was dominant in the majority of the samples from Manzala Lake, but dominant in only a few samples from the middle parts of Burullus and Edku lakes. The non-planktonic epiphytic taxa Cocconeis placentula and Epithemia sorex were the subdominant species in the surface sediments, especially in shallow and marginal parts of the lakes. Multivariate statistical techniques (hierarchical ascending clustering and canonical correspondence analysis) were used to identify ecological groups of diatoms and to investigate which environmental variables were important in explaining the variation between these groups. Eight ecological groups containing distinctive diatom assemblages reflect current environmental conditions; especially saltwater intrusion in the north and nutrient-rich freshwater in the south.  相似文献   

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: IV. Lacustrine paleoecology     

Manuel?R.?Palacios-FestEmail author  Simone?R.?Alin  Andrew?S.?Cohen  Brandon?Tanner  Heather?Heuser 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,34(1):51-71

Fossil invertebrates from cores collected in Lake Tanganyika provide a record of probable nearshore ecological response to recent watershed deforestation and sediment erosion in several East African watersheds. We compared paleoecological profiles (primarily from ostracodes) from watersheds spanning a range of sizes and present-day deforestation disturbance levels to understand the timing and magnitude of faunal changes, and their relationship in time to terrestrially-derived disturbance indicators. Profiles from the Lubulungu and Nyasanga/Kahama Rivers (Tanzania) provide a record of faunal variability in watersheds that are currently undisturbed with respect to deforestation. These records indicate continuous faunal turnover through time. However, this pattern of turnover is accompanied by relatively high levels of diversity throughout the record, with no wholesale extinction events. Ostracode taphonomic data and other fossil abundance data from the Lubulungu area provide strong evidence in support of at least two episodes of lower lake levels, associated with episodes of Late Holocene aridity. Records from deltas of disturbed watersheds at the Kabesi River (Tanzania) and those of Northern Burundi all show a combination of profound and abrupt faunal turnover, in some cases accompanied by local extinction and establishment of a few dominant taxa. At the Mwamgongo River delta, fed from a very small, disturbed watershed, species turnover was subtler. In disturbed watershed cores showing abrupt faunal changes the transitions mostly occurred in the late 19th to early 20th centuries, predating the major mid-20th century increase in sediment mass accumulation rates, with the latter only correlated with changing fossil abundance and flux. However, the earlier faunal community changes are contemporaneous with both palynological and geochemical changes in the core profiles indicative of changing land-use patterns. This suggests that lacustrine ecosystem response to deforestation was a two-stage process, with an earlier phase of response to changing quality of sediments or dissolved matter being discharged from the watershed, and a subsequent phase responding to increased quantity of sediment.  相似文献