Advancing tsunami risk assessment by improving spatio-temporal population exposure and evacuation modeling     

Sergio Freire  Christoph Aubrecht  Stephanie Wegscheider 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(3):1311-1324

Tsunamis are among the most destructive and lethal of coastal hazards. These are time-specific events, and despite directly affecting a narrow strip of coastline, a single occurrence can have devastating effects and cause massive loss of life, especially in urbanized coastal areas. In this work, in order to consider the time dependence of population exposure to tsunami threat, the variation of spatio-temporal population distribution in the daily cycle is mapped and analyzed in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. High-resolution daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using ‘intelligent dasymetric mapping,’ that is, applying areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Workplace information and mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution. In combination with a tsunami hazard map, information on infrastructure, land use and terrain slope, the modeled population distribution is used to assess people’s evacuation speed, applying a geospatial evacuation modeling approach to the city of Lisbon. The detailed dynamic population exposure assessment allows producing both daytime and nighttime evacuation time maps, which provide valuable input for evacuation planning and management. Results show that a significant amount of population is at risk, and its numbers increase dramatically from nighttime to daytime, especially in the zones of high tsunami flooding susceptibility. Also, full evacuation can be problematic in the daytime period, even if initiated immediately after a major tsunami-triggering earthquake. The presented approach greatly improves tsunami risk assessment and can benefit all phases of the disaster management process.  相似文献   

Linking pattern to process in reef sediment dynamics at Lady Musgrave Island,southern Great Barrier Reef   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Sarah M. Hamylton  Rafael C. Carvalho  Stephanie Duce  Chris M. Roelfsema  Ana Vila‐Concejo 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1634-1650

Linking surficial sediment patterns in reef environments to the processes that underlie their depositional dynamics enables predictions to be made of how environmental changes will influence reef‐associated sedimentary landforms, such as islands and beaches. Geomorphic linkages between sediment deposition patterns and the biophysical processes that drive them are often poorly resolved, particularly at broad landscape scales where tangible statements can be made about structural changes to landforms. The present study applies geospatial techniques to link patterns in reef sediment dynamics at Lady Musgrave Island to the underlying processes driving them. In situ calcification is characterized by developing a high resolution map of the surficial calcium carbonate producing communities inhabiting the reef platform, and associated sediments across the reef flat are analysed for grain size, kurtosis, sorting and threshold bed shear stress to explore transport pathways across the reef flat and lagoon. Wave energy is modelled across the entire reef platform as a potential driver of sediment dynamics, and morphometric linkages are empirically defined between wave energy and grain size. Findings indicate that carbonate sediments are primarily sourced from calcifying communities colonizing the outer periphery of the reef platform and that sediment grain size can be reliably linked to wave energy by virtue of a linear model.  相似文献   

Environmental integrity of international carbon market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lambert Schneider  Stephanie La Hoz Theuer 《Climate Policy》2019,19(3):386-400

The Paris Agreement establishes provisions for using international carbon market mechanisms to achieve climate mitigation contributions. Environmental integrity is a key principle for using such mechanisms under the Agreement. This paper systematically identifies and categorizes issues and options to achieve environmental integrity, including how it could be defined, what influences it, and what approaches could mitigate environmental integrity risks. Here, environmental integrity is assumed to be ensured if the engagement in international transfers of carbon market units leads to the same or lower aggregated global emissions. Four factors are identified that influence environmental integrity: the accounting for international transfers; the quality of units generated, i.e. whether the mechanism ensures that the issuance or transfer of units leads to emission reductions in the transferring country; the ambition and scope of the mitigation target of the transferring country; and incentives or disincentives for future mitigation action, such as possible disincentives for transferring countries to define future mitigation targets less ambitiously or more narrowly in order to sell more units. It is recommended that policy-makers combine several approaches to address the significant risks to environmental integrity.

Key policy insights

• Robust accounting is a key prerequisite for ensuring environmental integrity. The diversity of nationally determined contributions is an important challenge, in particular for avoiding double counting and for ensuring that the accounting for international transfers is representative for the mitigation efforts by Parties over time.

• Unit quality can, in theory, be ensured through appropriate design of carbon market mechanisms; in practice, existing mechanisms face considerable challenges in ensuring unit quality. Unit quality could be promoted through guidance under Paris Agreement Article 6, and reporting and review under Article 13.

• The ambition and scope of mitigation targets is key for the incentive for transferring countries to ensure unit quality because countries with ambitious and economy-wide targets would have to compensate for any transfer of units that lack quality. Encouraging countries to adopt ambitious and economy-wide NDC targets would therefore facilitate achieving environmental integrity.

• Restricting transfers in instances of high environmental integrity risk – through eligibility criteria or limits – could complement these approaches.

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Detailed models of the binary pulsars J1141−6545 and B2303+46     

Ross P. Church  Stephanie J. Bush  Christopher A. Tout  Melvyn B. Davies 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(2):715-727

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Ferric iron in tourmaline     

Stephanie M. Mattson  George R. Rossman 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1984,11(5):225-234

Red Fe³⁺-rich and black Fe³⁺, Fe²⁺-rich tourmalines have been studied by optical and Mössbauer spectroscopies to determine the optical characteristics of Fe³⁺ in tourmaline. Prominent optical absorption features at 485 and 540 nm are assigned to transitions of multiple exchange-coupled Fe³⁺ pairs in several site combinations. These transitions are more intense than those of isolated Fe³⁺ and are polarized along the vector between the interacting ions, thus permitting site assignments. The 485 nm band occurs at an unusually low energy for Fe³⁺ in silicate minerals. Similar behavior has been observed in the spectrum of coalingite, Mg₁₀Fe ₂ ³⁺ (OH)₂₄CO₃·2H₂O, in which Fe³⁺ occurs in related pairs in edge-shared sheets. These lower energies are proposed to result from magnetic exchange in edge-shared geometries. Antiferromagnetic exchange has been confirmed by a variable temperature magnetic susceptibility study of a Kenyan dravite with 3.36 wt percent Fe. The Mössbauer spectrum of this sample is unusual in that it shows a pronounced decrease in width of component peaks from 298 K to 5 K.  相似文献   

Fe2+-Fe3+ interactions in tourmaline     

Stephanie M. Mattson  George R. Rossman 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1987,14(2):163-171

The color and spectroscopic properties of ironbearing tourmalines (elbaite, dravite, uvite, schorl) do not vary smoothly with iron concentration. Such behavior has often been ascribed to intervalence charge transfer between Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ which produces a new, intense absorption band in the visible portion of the spectrum. In the case of tourmaline, an entirely different manifestation of the interaction between Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ occurs in which the Fe²⁺ bands are intensified without an intense, new absorption band. At low iron concentrations, the intensity of light absorption from Fe²⁺ is about the same for E∥c and E⊥c polarizations, but at high iron concentrations, the intensity of the E⊥c polarization increases more than ten times as much as E∥c. This difference is related to intensification of Fe²⁺ absorption by adjacent Fe³⁺. Extrapolations indicate that pairs of Fe²⁺-Fe³⁺ have Fe²⁺ absorption intensity ～200 times as great as isolated Fe²⁺. Enhanced Fe²⁺ absorption bands are recognized in tourmaline by their intensity increase at 78 K of up to 50%. Enhancement of Fe²⁺ absorption intensity provides a severe limitration on the accuracy of determinations of Fe²⁺ concentration and site occupancy by optical spectroscopic methods. Details of the assignment of tourmaline spectra in the optical region are reconsidered.  相似文献   

New satellite derived sea ice motion tracks Arctic contamination     

W. J. Emery  C. Fowler  J. Maslanik  Stephanie Pfirman 《Marine pollution bulletin》1997,35(7-12):345-352

Sea ice has been reported to contain contaminants from atmospheric and nearshore sediment resuspension processes. In this study successive passive microwave images from the 85.5 GHz channels on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were merged with drifting buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Program to compute Arctic sea ice motion in the Russian Arctic between 1988 and 1994. Smooth daily motion fields were averaged to prepare monthly maps making it possible to compute the 7-year mean and mean seasonal ice motions as well as principal components of directional variability of sea ice motion for the entire Arctic and surrounding basins. These mean motion vectors are used to simulate the advection of contaminants deposited on or contained within the sea ice and subsequently transported into the Arctic Ocean in order to predict both their mean trajectories and dispersal over time. The 3-year displacement of contaminants from a number of Russian sites and one American site display various behaviours from substantial displacement and dispersal to almost no movement. This computational procedure could be applied to realtime SSM/I and ice buoy data to provide detailed, all-weather, vector motion maps of ice circulation to predict the path and dispersal of any new substance introduced to the sea ice and transported into the Arctic or Antarctic ocean surface.  相似文献   

The Impact of Sediment-Laden Snow and Sea Ice in the Arctic on Climate     

Tamara Shapiro Ledley  Stephanie Pfirman 《Climatic change》1997,37(4):641-664

Sea ice formed over shallow Arctic shelves often entrains sediments resuspended from the sea floor. Some of this sediment-laden ice advects offshore into the Transpolar Drift Stream and the Beaufort Gyre of the Arctic Basin. Through the processes of seasonal melting at the top surface, and the freezing of clean ice on the bottom surface, these sediments tend, over time, to concentrate at the top of the ice where they can affect the surface albedo, and thus the absorbed solar radiation, when the ice is snow free. Similarly, wind-blown dust can reduce the albedo of snow. The question that is posed by this study is what is the impact of these sediments on the seasonal variation of sea ice, and how does it then affect climate? Experiments were conducted with a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model to examine the impact of including sediments in the sea ice alone and in the sea ice and overlying snow. The focus of these experiments was the impact of the radiative and not the thermal properties of the sediments. The results suggest that if sea ice contains a significant amount of sediments which are covered by clean snow, there is only a small impact on the climate system. However, if the snow also contains significant sediments the impact on sea ice thickness and surface air temperature is much more significant.  相似文献   

Detecting sampling outliers and sampling heterogeneity when catch-at-length is estimated using the ratio estimator     

Vigneau  Joel; Mahevas  Stephanie 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(5):1028-1032

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On the solution of the carbonate chemistry system in ocean biogeochemistry models   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Michael J. Follows  Taka Ito  Stephanie Dutkiewicz   《Ocean Modelling》2006,12(3-4):290-301

We present a simplified method for solving the local equilibrium carbonate chemistry in numerical ocean biogeochemistry models. Compared to the methods typically used, the scheme is fast, efficient and compact. The accuracy of the solution is dictated by the number of species retained in the expression for alkalinity and there is almost no computational penalty for retaining minor contributions. We demonstrate that this scheme accurately reproduces the results of the commonly used method in the context of a three-dimensional global ocean carbon cycle model. Using this model we also show that neglecting the regional variations in surface dissolved inorganic phosphorus and silicic acid concentrations can lead to significant systematic bias in regional estimates of air–sea carbon fluxes using such models.  相似文献