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Two types of modelling approaches for simulating ground motion in Iceland are studied and compared. The first type of models, named discrete‐time series models (ARMA), are based solely on measured acceleration in earthquakes occurring in Iceland. The second type of models are based on a theoretical seismic source model called the extended Brune model. Based on measured acceleration in Iceland during the period 1986–1996, the parameters for the extended Brune models have been estimated. The seismic source models are presented here as ARMA models, which simplifies the simulation process. A single‐layer soil amplification model is used in conjunction with the extended Brune model to estimate local site amplification. Emphasis is put on the ground motion models representing the variability in the measured earthquakes, with respect to energy, duration and frequency content. Demonstration is made using these models for constructing linear and non‐linear probabilistic response spectra using a discretised version of the Bouc–Wen model for the hysteresis of the second‐order system. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Simulating search behaviour of fish towards bait 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Vabo Rune; Huse Geir; Ferno Anders; Jorgensen Terje; Lokkeborg Svein; Skaret Georg 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(7):1224-1232
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Drawing on some recent developments in so-called “interactive governance theory”, it is argued that fisheries and coastal governance is basically a relationship between two systems, which could be termed a “governing system” and a “system-to-be-governed.” The former system is social: it is made up of institutions and steering mechanisms. The latter system is partly natural, partly social: it consists of an ecosystem and the resources that it harbors, as well as a system of users and stakeholders who form political coalitions and institutions among themselves. Obviously, we need to be concerned with the relationship and interaction between the governing system and the system-to-be-governed, which forms a system in its own right. According to governance theory, these systems share similar structural attributes: they are diverse, complex, dynamic and vulnerable. In order for governance to work they must somehow be compatible, in order to be mutually responsive. This is not a matter of natural mechanism but of institutional design by societal actors such as legislative bodies, planning agencies and civic organizations—alone, or in concert. What conditions, mechanisms and institutions are conducive to creating a better rapport between the governing system and the system-to-be-governed? Before we can start this discussion, we need to rethink our basic assumptions of what governance is, what governors do, and what we can expect from governance. How do we get from where we are now to where we want to be? In order to accomplish this we need something other than an instrumental, rational model. We need “a technology of foolishness” that emphasizes institutional experimentation and learning by doing. 相似文献
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Einar Svendsen Morten Skogen Paul Budgell Geir Huse Jan Erik Stiansen Bjrn dlandsvik Frode Vikeb Lars Asplin Svein Sundby 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2810
The Norwegian Ecological Model (NORWECOM) biophysical model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic. Modeled time series of water volume fluxes, primary production, and drift of cod larvae through their modeled ambient temperature fields have been analyzed in conjunction with VPA estimated time series of 3-year-old cod recruits in the Barents Sea. Individual time series account for less than 50% of the recruitment variability; however, a combination of simulated flow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea and local primary production accounts for 70% of the variability with a 3-year lead. The associated regression predicts increased recruitment between 2007 and 2008 from about 450–700 million individuals with a standard error of nearly 150 million. 相似文献
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Former geological field investigations in the Rondane area, east-central southern Norway, have proposed that the maximum Fennoscandian ice-sheet coverage occurred during the Late Weichselian Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 20 ka) and that subsequent glaciofluvial sediments were first deposited in the early Holocene (after 10 ka). However, recent field investigations with ages from three internally consistent quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age series show an apparent deglaciation of northern Rondane in the period 20.0–13.8 ka. We examine here the possibility that these ages are too old because the sediment was not completely zeroed prior to deposition. Our investigations of incomplete bleaching use modern analogues, small aliquots, and single grains of quartz. First, the symmetric shape of small aliquot equivalent dose distributions suggests that the sediment was probably well bleached at deposition. This is supported by 5 modern analogue equivalent doses (De) of 0.6 Gy, 1.5% of the typical De from the deglaciation sediments. Finally, from single grain studies on three samples, we conclude that there is no evidence for poor bleaching in these samples; thus the weighted mean gives the best estimates of De, and these are completely consistent with both large and small aliquot estimates for these samples. These comparisons between large aliquots, modern analogues, small aliquots and single-grain analyses help to validate the OSL ages and confirm the complete resetting of these sediments prior to deposition. 相似文献
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In this paper we argue that what precedes the implementation of co-management is as important as what happens later in the process. To a selected group of fisheries and coastal co-management practitioners in various parts of the world, we posed questions about how the idea was conceived, who participated in the initial discussion, and the preparation required before implementation. Responses received suggest a wide range of possible beginnings. In some cases (e.g., Barbados, Mozambique, and Zambia/Lake Kariba), the government spearheaded the process, while in others (e.g., Brazil and Malawi), the process was initiated by local entrepreneurs. In other instances, the initial discussion took place between communities and researchers (e.g., South Africa) or environmental groups (e.g., the Philippines). Learning about the conditions and actions taken prior to co-management implementation can assist us in evaluating the likelihood of success. In addition, by taking the time to understand situations in a local context, researchers can avoid premature and hasty attempts to embrace co-management schemes. 相似文献