Modeling urban metabolism of Beijing city,China: with a coupled system dynamics: emergy model   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Tao Song  Jian-ming Cai  Teresa Chahine  Hui Xu  Fang-qu Niu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1511-1524

Chinese cities are plagued by the rise in resource and energy input and output over the last decade. At the same time, the scale and pace of economic development sweeping across Chinese cities have revived the debate about urban metabolisms, which could be simply seen as the ratio of output to resource and energy input in urban systems. In this study, an emergy (meaning the equivalent solar energy) accounting, sustainable indices of urban metabolisms, and an urban metabolic system dynamics model, are developed in support of the research task on Chinese cities ‘metabolisms and their related policies. The dynamic simulation model used in the paper is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, which is directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences. For the study case, interactions among a number of Beijing’s urban emergy components within a time frame of 20 years (from 2010 to 2030) are examined dynamically. Six alternative policy scenarios are implemented into the system simulation. Our results indicate that Beijing’s current model of urban metabolism—tertiary industry oriented development mode—would deliver prosperity to the city. However, the analysis also shows that this mode of urban metabolism would weaken urban self-support capacity due primarily to the large share of imported and exported emergy in the urban metabolic system. The keys of improving the efficiency of urban metabolism include the priority on the renewable resource and energy, increase in environmental investment and encouragement on innovative technologies of resource and energy utilization, et al.  相似文献   

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeohydrology in the western Mediterranean region: The Lake Estanya record (NE Spain)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mario Morelln  Blas Valero-Garcs  Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia  Penlope Gonzlez-Sampriz   scar Romero  Antonio Delgado-Huertas  Pilar Mata  Ana Moreno  Mayte Rico  Juan Pablo Corella 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(25-26):2582-2599

The multi-proxy analysis of sediment cores recovered in karstic Lake Estanya (42°02′ N, 0°32′ E; 670 m a. s. l., NE Spain), located in the transitional area between the humid Pyrenees and the semi-arid Central Ebro Basin, provides the first high-resolution, continuous sedimentary record in the region, extending back the last 21 000 years. The integration of sedimentary facies, elemental and isotopical geochemistry and biogenic silica, together with a robust age model based on 17 AMS radiocarbon dates, enables precise reconstruction of the main hydrological and environmental changes in the region during the last deglaciation.Arid conditions, represented by shallow lake levels, predominantly saline waters and reduced organic productivity occurred throughout the last glacial maximum (21–18 cal kyrs BP) and the lateglacial, reaching their maximum intensity during the period 18–14.5 cal kyrs BP (including Heinrich event 1) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.6 cal kyrs BP). Less saline conditions characterized the 14.5–12.6 cal kyrs BP period, suggesting higher effective moisture during the Bölling/Allerød. The onset of more humid conditions started at 9.4 cal kyrs, indicating a delayed hydrological response to the onset of the Holocene which is also documented in several sites of the Mediterranean Basin. Higher, although fluctuating, Holocene lake levels were punctuated by a mid Holocene arid period between 4.8 and 4.0 cal kyrs BP. A major lake-level rise occurred at 1.2 cal kyrs BP, conducive to the establishment of conditions similar to the present and interrupted by a last major water level drop, occurring around 800 cal yrs BP, which coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly.The main hydrological stages in Lake Estanya are in phase with most Western Mediterranean and North Atlantic continental and marine records, but our results also show similarities with other Iberian and northern African reconstructions, emphasizing peculiarities of palaeohydrological evolution of the Iberian Peninsula during the last deglaciation.  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Luca Lombardi  Massimiliano Nocentini  William Frodella  Teresa Nolesini  Federica Bardi  Emanuele Intrieri  Tommaso Carlà  Lorenzo Solari  Giulia Dotta  Federica Ferrigno  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):685-696

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.  相似文献   

A rootless suture and the loss of the roots of a mountain chain: The Variscan belt of NW Iberia     

José R. Martínez Catalán  Ricardo Arenas  Jacobo Abati  Sonia Sánchez Martínez  Florentino Díaz García  Javier Fernández Suárez  Pablo González Cuadra  Pedro Castiñeiras  Juan Gómez Barreiro  Alejandro Díez Montes  Emilio González Clavijo  Francisco J. Rubio Pascual  Pilar Andonaegui  Teresa E. Jeffries  James E. Alcock  Rubén Díez Fernández  Alicia López Carmona 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2009,341(2-3):114-126

Ophiolites of different Paleozoic ages occur in North-West (NW) Iberia in a rootless suture representing the remnants of the Rheic Ocean. Associated allochthonous terranes in the hanging- and foot-walls of the suture derive from the former margins, whereas the relative autochthon corresponds to the Paleozoic passive margin of northern Gondwana. The Paleozoic tectonic evolution of this part of the circum-Atlantic region is deduced from the stratigraphical, petrological, structural and metamorphic evolution of the different units and their ages. The tectonic reconstruction covers from Cambro-Ordovician continental rifting and the opening of the Rheic Ocean to its Middle to Upper Devonian closure. Then, the Variscan Laurussia–Gondwana convergence and collision is briefly described, from its onset to the late stages of collapse associated with the demise of the orogenic roots.  相似文献   

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes     

Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas  Servando De la Cruz-Reyna 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.  相似文献   

The ∼ 1245 yr BP Asososca maar: New advances on recent volcanic stratigraphy of Managua (Nicaragua) and hazard implications     

Natalia Pardo  Denis Ramón Avellán  José Luis Macías  Teresa Scolamacchia  Dionisio Rodríguez 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Asososca maar is located at the western outskirts of Managua, Nicaragua, in the central part of the active, N–S trending and right-lateral Nejapa–Miraflores fault that marks an offset of the Middle America Volcanic Arc. It constitutes one of the ∼ 21 vents aligned along the fault, between the Chiltepe Volcanic Complex to the North and Ticomo vents to the South.  相似文献   

Biomass Size Spectra of Near-Shore Shallow-Water Benthic Communities in the Gulf of Gdańsk Southern Baltic Sea     

Aleksander  Drgas  Teresa  Radziejewska Jan  Warzocha 《Marine Ecology》1998,19(3):209-228

The concept of size spectra, developed by S heldon & P arsons 1967 and S heldon et al. 1972, seeks to describe community structure by evoking the distribution of biomass over a sequence of equal intervals of the logarithm of body size. In this study, biomass size spectra were prepared for benthic macro- and meiobenthos communities at 5 stations, differing in their sediment characteristics, located in the shallow, coastal area of the Gulf of Gdańsk Southern Baltic Sea. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the community spectra would allow distinct separation of ecological categories of the benthos and whether habitat differences between stations would significantly affect benthic size spectra.
Benthic biomass at the stations sampled depended mainly on nematodes and oligochaetes among the meiobenthos and on hydrobiid snails and M. edulis among the macrobenthos. Regardless of habitat, size spectra peaked initially at the meiofaunal range weight class 25 1. 19–501.19 ng C, identical to that reported in other studies. The separation between meio- and macrobenthic peaks, however, was not as pronounced as that found in other studies. Normalized size spectra demonstrated that most of the variations in the spectra between stations was introduced by macrobenthos, which differed between the coarse- and fine-grained sediments. Nonetheless, those differences were not strong enough to significantly affect the spectra. In consequence, the benthic biomass spectra of all the stations were found to conform to a common pattern and could be represented by a single, average spectrum.  相似文献   

Geostatistical seismic Amplitude‐versus‐angle inversion          下载免费PDF全文

Leonardo Azevedo  Rúben Nunes  Amílcar Soares  Guenther Schwedersky Neto  Teresa S. Martins 《Geophysical Prospecting》2018,66(Z1):116-131

Seismic inversion plays an important role in reservoir modelling and characterisation due to its potential for assessing the spatial distribution of the sub‐surface petro‐elastic properties. Seismic amplitude‐versus‐angle inversion methodologies allow to retrieve P‐wave and S‐wave velocities and density individually allowing a better characterisation of existing litho‐fluid facies. We present an iterative geostatistical seismic amplitude‐versus‐angle inversion algorithm that inverts pre‐stack seismic data, sorted by angle gather, directly for: density; P‐wave; and S‐wave velocity models. The proposed iterative geostatistical inverse procedure is based on the use of stochastic sequential simulation and co‐simulation algorithms as the perturbation technique of the model parametre space; and the use of a genetic algorithm as a global optimiser to make the simulated elastic models converge from iteration to iteration. All the elastic models simulated during the iterative procedure honour the marginal prior distributions of P‐wave velocity, S‐wave velocity and density estimated from the available well‐log data, and the corresponding joint distributions between density versus P‐wave velocity and P‐wave versus S‐wave velocity. We successfully tested and implemented the proposed inversion procedure on a pre‐stack synthetic dataset, built from a real reservoir, and on a real pre‐stack seismic dataset acquired over a deep‐water gas reservoir. In both cases the results show a good convergence between real and synthetic seismic and reliable high‐resolution elastic sub‐surface Earth models.  相似文献   

Routine Method for the Analysis of Short‐Chain Chlorinated Paraffins in Surface Water and Wastewater          下载免费PDF全文

Adrià Rubirola  Francisco J. Santos  M. Rosa Boleda  M. Teresa Galceran 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2018,46(2)

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