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21.
22.
The Timor Orogen represents one of the youngest arc–continent collisions exposed on the Earth. It has the potential to provide some of the key parameters about how this style of orogeny evolves. However, the metamorphic age of the highest-grade rocks formed in the collision remains controversial. Using U–Th–Pb dating of monazite from amphibolite-grade sillimanite and garnet-bearing schists we show the peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–4.7 Ma. The young age of the monazite and the presence of significant amounts of common Pb required the development of a new protocol to simultaneously account for the 230Th disequilibrium and the 207Pb common Pb correction. The new estimate of metamorphic age is consistent with the estimates based on plate reconstructions for the initiation of arc–continent collision in East Timor. The metamorphic event is a result of this collision.  相似文献   
23.
With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.  相似文献   
24.
The Olympic iron oxide–copper–gold province in South Australia contains numerous deposits and prospects, including the Olympic Dam Cu–U–Au–Ag deposit and the Acropolis prospect. The Acropolis prospect comprises massive, coarse-grained magnetite–apatite veins partly replaced by a hematite-stable assemblage. The apatite grains in the veins contain zones with abundant inclusions of other minerals (including monazite and xenotime) and low trace-element concentrations relative to the inclusion-free zones. The inclusion-rich apatite zones are interpreted to be formed from the recrystallisation of the inclusion-free apatite and remobilisation of U, Th and rare earth element (REE) from apatite into monazite and xenotime. Apatite, monazite and xenotime are all established U–Th–Pb geochronometers and offer the potential to constrain the alteration history of the Acropolis prospect. The LA-ICPMS U–Pb age of inclusion-free apatite is within error of the age of the host volcanic units (ca 1.59 Ga). Inclusion-rich apatite yields both near-concordant analyses that are within error of the inclusion-free apatite as well as highly disturbed (discordant) analyses. The most concordant analyses of monazite (Th–Pb) inclusions and xenotime (U–Pb) inclusions and rim grains indicate an alteration event occurred at ca 1.37 Ga and possibly also at ca 500 Ma. The disparity in age of the inclusion-rich apatite and the REE-phosphate inclusions (and rim grains) is suggested to be owing to the apatite being initially recrystallised at ca 1.59 Ga and modified again by a later event that also formed (or coarsened) most of the inclusions. Partial resetting of the majority of the monazite inclusions as well as the presence of significant amounts of common Pb has complicated the interpretation of the monazite results. In contrast, xenotime is a more robust geochronometer in this setting. The ages of the two post-1.59 Ga events that appear to have affected the Acropolis prospect do not correspond to any events known to have occurred in the Gawler Craton. The earlier (ca 1.37 Ga) age instead corresponds best with metamorphic–magmatic–hydrothermal activity in Laurentia, consistent with the proximity of Laurentia and the Gawler Craton inferred from palaeogeographic reconstructions. The later (ca 500 Ma) event corresponds to the Delamerian Orogeny and has been shown by prior studies to have also affected the Olympic Dam deposit.  相似文献   
25.
ABSTRACT

Since the 1990s, climate change impact discourse has highlighted potential for large scale violent conflicts. However, the role of climate stresses on local conflicts over natural resources, the role of policies and adaptation in these conflicts, and opportunities to enhance cooperation have been neglected. These gaps are addressed in this paper using evidence from participatory action research on 79 cases of local collective action over natural resources that experience conflicts in Bangladesh and Nepal. Climate trends and stresses contributed to just under half of these conflict cases. Nine factors that enable greater cooperation and transformation of conflict are identified. Participatory dialogue and negotiation processes, while not sufficient, changed understanding, attitudes and positions of actors. Many of the communities innovated physical measures to overcome natural resource constraints, underlying conflict, and/or institutional reforms. These changes were informed by improving understanding of resource limitations and indigenous knowledge. Learning networks among community organizations encouraged collective action by sharing successes and creating peer pressure. Incentives for cooperation were important. For example, when community organizations formally permitted excluded traditional resource users to access resources, those actors complied with rules and paid towards management costs. However, elites were able to use policy gaps to capture resources with changed characteristics due to climate change. In most of the cases where conflict persisted, power, policy and institutional barriers prevented community-based organizations from taking up potential adaptations and innovations. Policy frameworks recognizing collective action and supporting flexible innovation in governance and adaptation would enable wider transformation of natural resource conflicts into cooperation.

Key policy insights
  • Climate stresses, policy gaps and interventions can all worsen local natural resource conflicts.

  • Sectoral knowledge and technical approaches to adaptation are open to elite capture and can foster conflicts.

  • Many local natural resource conflicts can be resolved but this requires an enabling environment for participatory dialogue, external facilitation, flexible responses to context, and recognition of disadvantaged stakeholder interests.

  • Transforming conflict to greater cooperation mostly involves social and institutional changes, so adaptation policies should focus less on physical works and more on enabling factors such as negotiation, local institutions, knowledge, and incentives.

  相似文献   
26.
Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161 km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes).  相似文献   
27.
Abstract

Present‐day results and CO2 sensitivity are described for two versions of a global climate model (genesis) with and without sea‐ice dynamics. Sea‐ice dynamics is modelled using the cavitating‐fluid method of Flato and Hibler (1990, 1992). The atmospheric general circulation model originated from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1, but is heavily modified to include new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary‐layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle and the semi‐Lagrangian transport of water vapour. The surface models include an explicit model of vegetation (similar to BATS and SiB), multilayer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a slab ocean mixed layer.

When sea‐ice dynamics is turned off, the CO2‐induced warming increases drastically around ~60–80°S in winter and spring. This is due to the much greater (and unrealistic) compactness of the Antarctic ice cover without dynamics, which is reduced considerably when CO2 is doubled and exposes more open ocean to the atmosphere. With dynamics, the winter ice is already quite dispersed for 1 × CO2 so that its compactness does not decrease as much when CO2 is doubled.  相似文献   
28.
29.
A diverse volcanic and plutonic rock suite was recovered from the center of the 80 km long ridge segment of the Southwest Indian Ridge (54°S, 7°16 E) between the Islas Orcadas and Shaka Fracture Zones. The cumulus nature of the gabbroic rocks in the suite is indicated by phase, modal and cryptic layering, igneous lamination, and low incompatible element abundances. We present a mass-balance model for calculating the proportions and compositions of cumulus phases and crystallized intercumulus liquid from bulk-rock major element compositions. The model is based on the ability to define a compositional array of basaltic liquids and on the assumption that cumulus minerals are initially in equilibrium with trapped liquid. Calculated proportions of trapped liquid range from 3%–15%; values that are characteristic of adcumulates to mesocumulates. Models of postcumulus crystallization indicate significant enrichments of incompatible elements and buffering of compatible elements in residual trapped liquids, thus explaining the high TiO2 contents observed in magnesian clinopyroxenes. Cumulus phase assemblages and compositions suggest solidification in shallow level magma chambers, but disequilibrium plagioclase compositions suggest some crystallization at greater depth. Furthermore, basalt compositions projected onto the olivine-clinopyroxenequartz pseudoternary suggest magma generation over a range of pressures (from less than 10 to greater than 20 kb) as well as polybaric fractional crystallization. We suggest that the Southwest Indian Ridge is characterized by low magma supply with small batches of melt that either ascend directly to the surface having undergone limited polybaric crystallization or are trapped in shallow crustal magma chambers where they evolve and solidify to form cumulate gabbros. The adcumulus nature of the gabbros investigated here suggests slow cooling rates typical of large intrusions implying relatively large, but ephemeral magma chambers below segments of the Southwest Indian Ridge.  相似文献   
30.
Summary The measurement of evaporation and precipitation continues to be most problematic, particularly in terms of the accuracy of the instruments used and their standardization world-wide. This paper analyzes daily data from three rain gauges and two evaporimeters over a five-year period and correlates observed differences with the prevailing meteorological conditions. It was determined that ground-level gauges and large evaporation tanks provide the most acceptable and representative measurements from instruments currently in use. However, new developments are necessary for improved accuracy and world-wide adoption.With 2 Figures  相似文献   
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