Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction     

Chun Jiang  Xueli Wei Xiaofeng Cui  Dexiang You Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality  Tianjin  China Tianjin University of Technology  Tianjin  China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(3):315-320

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake pre-diction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and ...  相似文献   

增强责任感使命感最大限度减轻地震灾害——中国地震局局长陈建民在汶川地震抗震救灾一周年纪念大会上的讲话摘要     

中国地震局办公室 《国际地震动态》2009,(8):1-2

陈建民局长指出,党中央、国务院高度重视防震减灾工作。胡锦涛总书记在全国抗震救灾总结表彰大会和2008年两院院士大会上强调指出,“提高防灾减灾能力,是保护人民生命财产安全、保卫改革开放和社会主义现代化建设成果的必然要求,必须把防灾减灾工作作为关系经济社会发展全局的一项重大工作进一步抓紧抓好。要做好自然灾害规律研究、加强自然灾害监测和预警能力建设等六个方面的工作”。  相似文献   

北塘凹陷古近系沙河街组三段物源体系分析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

黄传炎  王华  周立宏  任培罡  刘军  白云风 《地球科学》2009,34(6):975-984

物源分析是盆地分析的重要内容之一.北塘凹陷古近系沙河街组三段(Es₃) 湖泊范围广、沉积厚度大, 而勘探程度低, 是大港油田未来勘探的重要突破区, 精细刻画北塘凹陷沙三段物源体系对沉积体系重建、有利区带预测具有重要意义.采用构造格架及古地貌宏观区分物源区与沉积区, 根据碎屑矿物组合特征划分物源区块, 依据地震反射特征勾绘物源在盆内进积方向, 利用砂体等厚图和砂地比等值线图精细描绘物源分支, 从不同角度、不同层次对北塘凹陷沙三段古物源体系进行精细研究.结果表明, 北塘凹陷物源来自北部燕山褶皱带和西部沧县隆起, 具体分为西部的沧县物源、西北角的汉沽物源、北部的大神堂物源和东北角的涧南物源.在物源体系和构造组合特征的控制下, 沙三段主要发育扇三角洲沉积体系.   相似文献   

Structures of the Bohai Petroliferous Area, Bohai Bay Basin   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

CAI Dongsheng  LUO Yuhui  YAO Changhu  Research Institute of the Bohai Corporation of CNOOC  Tianjin HE Jiankun  HU Shengbiao  Institute of Geology  Geophysics  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing LU Huafu  WANG Liangshu Department of Earth Sciences  Nanjing University  Nanjing  Jiangsu 《《地质学报》英文版》2000,74(3):641-650

This paper, for the first time, deals with a more systematic study of the structures in the Bohaipetroliferous area that covers nearly one third of the Bohai Bay basin. The study mainly involves the effects of preexisting basement faults on the basin formation, the characteristics of basin geometry and kinetics, the modelling of the tectonic-thermal history, the polycyclicity and heterogeneity in the structural evolution and the natural seismic tomographic images of the crust and upper mantle. The authors analyze the features of the dynamic evolution of the basin in the paper and point out that the basin in the Bohai petroliferous area is an extensional pull-apart basin.  相似文献   

Preliminary Study on Horizontal Deformation and Tectonic Activity in the Northern Part of North China Using GPS Remeasurement Results     

Guo Liangqian  Ying ShaofenFirst Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center  CSB  Tianjin  China 《中国地震研究》1999,(3)

In this paper, the baseline variation and displacement vector was analyzed using the calculated results of GPS measurements carried out from 1995 to 1996 in North China. Based on these analytical results, we studied the recent tectonic activity. In general, the regional extension is dominant in the direction of proximately EW, but there is a difference in the SN direction. Extension is significant in the Shanxi fault-depression zone and Bohai region, while compression with strike-slip is characterized along the Yishui-Tancheng segment of the Tanlu fault zone. The baseline shortening zone is distributed along the Baotou-Zhangjiakou-Ninghe areas. It is a boundary zone of regional variation where many differences of crustal horizontal deformation are discovered between the southern part and the northern part of this zone. The baseline shortening zone in NE direction is distributed along the Jianchang-Tangshan-Gucheng area. It is consistent with the Tangshan-Xingtai seismic zone which indicates that tectoni  相似文献   

本刊加入万方数据(ChinaInfo)系统科技期刊群的声明     

<海洋地质与第四纪地质>编辑部 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》1999,19(3)

为了实现科技期刊编辑、出版发行工作的电子化,推进科技信息交流的网络化进程,我刊现已入网"万方数据(ChinaInfo)系统科技期刊群",所以,向本刊投稿并录用的稿件文章,将一律由编辑部统一纳入万方数据(ChinaInfo)系统,进入因特网提供信息服务.凡有不同意者,请另投它刊.本刊所付稿酬包含刊物内容上网服务报酬,不再另付.  相似文献   

Dynamic Behaviour of a Caisson Quaywall Under Strong Earthquake     

LIU Hanlong  DAI Huichao  Susumu IAI Professor  Geotechnical Engineering Research Institute  Hohai University  Nanjing  China. Senior Engineer  China Yangtze Three Gorges Project Development Corporation  Yichang  China. Doctor  Port  Harbour Research Institute  Ministry of Transport  Nagase  Japan. 《中国海洋工程》1999,(1)

—Effective stress analysis is performed to evaluate the residual displacement of a caissonquaywall during 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki Earthquake and 1993 Kushiro-Oki Earthquake.Theconstitutive model used in this study is a multiple shear mechanism type defined in strain space and cantake into account the effect of rotation of principal stress axis.The earthquake accelerations recorded atthe outcropping rock during the earthquake are used as input bedrock motion.The results of finite ele-ment analysis are in good agreement with the observed behaviour of the quaywall.The analysis also indi-cates that liquefaction and high excess pore water pressure have a significant effect on the deformation ofthe caisson.Soil improvement is speculated as the most reliable measures against liquefaction.The influ-ence of soil improvement and the reasonable improved area are discussed in the paper.  相似文献   

基于二维模式的PDM与MRPⅡ无缝衔接可行性分析     

丁香乾  冯天瑾  高新生  毕黎明  于树松 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1998,(4)

ＣＩＭＳ工程的重要思想是将企业全部生产经营活动视为有机整体,可以集成与优化。但是,目前我国ＣＩＭＳ工程中ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ分系统并未真正实现紧密结合与集成,甚至是彼此分离,无直接衔接。在实践经验的基础上,作者探讨了基于二维模式的ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ紧密衔接可行性,提出了实现这一衔接的初步设想  相似文献   

盐湖地球化学家──于升松教授     

本刊编辑部 《海洋与湖沼》1998,29(1):111-112

于升松,教授,男,于1941年10月出生,山东文登人,汉族,1965年毕业于北京地质学院水文地质及工程地质系;1986－1988年作为访问学者赴美国迈阿密大学学习和研究两年。在这期间曾赴南极洲一个月,研究了干谷地区盐湖痕量元素地球化学;1990－1993年先后赴美国、俄罗斯和西班牙等国科学考察和学术交流;现为中国科学院盐湖研究所地球化学研究室主任,研究员,中国地质大学兼职教授,博士导师。于升松同志自1965年参加工作以来,主要从事盐湖地球化学及多学科交叉的盐湖学领域的研究,先后主持和参加了国家科技攻关、国际合作、国家自然科学…  相似文献   

A Modulated-Gradient Parametrization for the Large-Eddy Simulation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model     

Sina Khani  Fernando Porté-Agel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(3):385-404

The performance of the modulated-gradient subgrid-scale (SGS) model is investigated using large-eddy simulation (LES) of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer within the weather research and forecasting model. Since the model includes a finite-difference scheme for spatial derivatives, the discretization errors may affect the simulation results. We focus here on understanding the effects of finite-difference schemes on the momentum balance and the mean velocity distribution, and the requirement (or not) of the ad hoc canopy model. We find that, unlike the Smagorinsky and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) models, the calculated mean velocity and vertical shear using the modulated-gradient model, are in good agreement with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, without the need for an extra near-wall canopy model. The structure of the near-wall turbulent eddies is better resolved using the modulated-gradient model in comparison with the classical Smagorinsky and TKE models, which are too dissipative and yield unrealistic smoothing of the smallest resolved scales. Moreover, the SGS fluxes obtained from the modulated-gradient model are much smaller near the wall in comparison with those obtained from the regular Smagorinsky and TKE models. The apparent inability of the LES model in reproducing the mean streamwise component of the momentum balance using the total (resolved plus SGS) stress near the surface is probably due to the effect of the discretization errors, which can be calculated a posteriori using the Taylor-series expansion of the resolved velocity field. Overall, we demonstrate that the modulated-gradient model is less dissipative and yields more accurate results in comparison with the classical Smagorinsky model, with similar computational costs.  相似文献