Long-term statistics of potentially hazardous sea states in the North Sea 1958–2014     

Tobias Teich  Nikolaus Groll  Ralf Weisse 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(11):1559-1570

Significant wave height and mean wave period are two of the most commonly used parameters to describe wave climate, wave climate variability, and their potential long-term changes. While these parameters are generally useful to characterize the distribution of waves within a given sea state, they provide less information about potentially high-risk situations. Over the recent years, a number of criteria were suggested that are considered to better characterize high-risk situations and which could bear a potential for the development of safety warning indices. Based on a multi-decadal high-resolution wind-wave hindcast, a climatology of such parameters is developed for the North Sea covering the years 1958–2014. More specifically, average conditions, inter-annual variability and long-term changes for unusually steep, rapidly developing and crossing sea states are considered. Generally, there are pronounced spatial variations in the frequency of such sea states, while over time, there is some seasonal and inter-annual variability but no substantial long-term trend could be identified.  相似文献   

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(11):1705-1713

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Convection-driven kinematic dynamos with a self-consistent shear flow     

L. K. Currie  S. M. Tobias 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2019,113(1-2):131-148

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Co-evolution of coarse grain structuring and bed roughness in response to episodic sediment supply in an experimental aggrading channel     

Marwan A. Hassan  Matteo Saletti  Chendi Zhang  Carles Ferrer-Boix  Joel P.L. Johnson  Tobias Müller  Claudia von Flotow 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(4):948-961

We use flume experiments to better understand how gravel-bed channels maintain bed surface stability in response to pulses of sediment supply. Bed elevations and surface imagery at high spatial resolutions were used to quantify the co-evolution of surface grain-size distribution (GSD), bed roughness statistics, and bed surface structures (clusters, cells and transverse features). Using a new semi-automated method, we identified individual stone structures over a 2 m × 1 m area throughout the experiments. After an initial coarsening, surface GSD and armouring ratio remained nearly stable as sediment pulses caused net bed aggradation. In contrast, individual grain structures continued to form, increase or decrease in size, and disappear throughout the experiments. The response of the bed to sediment pulses depended on the history of surface roughness evolution and bed surface structure development, as these factors changed much more in response to supply perturbations earlier in the experiments compared to later, even as the bed continued to aggrade. We interpret that the dynamic production and destruction of bed surface structures can act as a ‘buffer’ to sediment supply pulses, maintaining a stable bed surface during aggradation with minimal change in grain size or armouring. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fractionated martian atmosphere in the nakhlites?     

Michael J. Drake  Timothy D. Swindle  Tobias Owen  Donald S. Musselwhite 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1994,29(6):854-859

Abstract— Considerable evidence points to a martian origin of the SNC meteorites. Noble gas isotopic compositions have been measured in most SNC meteorites. The ¹²⁹Xe/¹³²Xe vs. ⁸⁴Kr/¹³²Xe ratios in Chassigny, most shergottites, and lithology C of EETA 79001 define a linear array. This array is thought to be a mixing line between martian mantle and martian atmosphere. One of the SNC meteorites, Nakhla, contains a leachable component that has an elevated ¹²⁹Xe/¹³²Xe ratio relative to its ⁸⁴Kr/¹³²Xe ratio when compared to this approximately linear array. The leachable component probably consists in part of iddingsite, an alteration product produced by interaction of olivine with aqueous fluid at temperatures lower than 150 °C. The elevated Xe isotopic ratio may represent a distinct reservoir in the martian crust or mantle. More plausibly, it is elementally fractionated martian atmosphere. Formation of sediments fractionates the noble gases in the correct direction. The range of sediment/atmosphere fractionation factors is consistent with the elevated ¹²⁹Xe/¹³²Xe component in Nakhla being contained in iddingsite, a low temperature weathering product. The crystallization age of Nakhla is 1.3 Ga. Its low-shock state suggests that it was ejected from near the surface of Mars. As liquid water is required for the formation of iddingsite, these observations provide further evidence for the near surface existence of aqueous fluids on Mars more recently than 1.3 Ga.  相似文献   

Chemical and isotopic compositions of fluids at Cumbal Volcano, Colombia: evidence for magmatic contribution     

Jennifer L. Lewicki  Tobias Fischer  Stanley N. Williams 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2000,62(4-5):347-361

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The composition and origin of Titan's atmosphere     

Tobias Owen 《Planetary and Space Science》1982,30(8):833-838

The discovery that Titan had an atmosphere was made by the identification of methane in the satellite's spectrum in 1944. But the abundance of this gas and the identification of other major constituents required the 1980 encounter by the Voyager 1 spacecraft. In the intervening years, traces of C₂H₂, C₂H₄, C₂H₆ and CH₃D had been posited to interpret emission bands in Titan's i.r. spectrum. The Voyager Infra-red Spectrometer confirmed that these gases were present and added seven more. The atmosphere is now known to be composed primarily of molecular nitrogen. But the derived mean molecular weight suggests the presence of a significant amount of some heavier gas, most probably argon. It is shown that this argon must be primordial, and that one can understand the evolution of Titan's atmosphere in terms of degassing of a mixed hydrate dominated by CH₄, N₂ and ³⁶Ar. This model satisfactorily explains the absence of neon and makes no special requirements on the satellite's surface temperature.  相似文献   

An Active Sun Throughout the Maunder Minimum     

Beer  Jürg  Tobias  Steven  Weiss  Nigel 《Solar physics》1998,181(1):237-249

Measurements of ¹⁰Be concentration in the Dye 3 ice core show that magnetic cycles persisted throughout the Maunder Minimum, although the Sun's overall activity was drastically reduced and sunspots virtually disappeared. Thus the dates of maxima and minima can now be reliably estimated. Similar behaviour is shown by a nonlinear dynamo model, which predicts that, after a grand minimum, the Sun's toroidal field may switch from being antisymmetric to being symmetric about the equator. The presence of cyclic activity during the Maunder Minimum limits estimates of the solar contribution to climatic change.  相似文献   

Geochemical and isotopic evidence for seawater contamination of the hydrothermal system of Taal Volcano, Luzon, the Philippines     

Pierre Delmelle  Minoru Kusakabe  Alain Bernard  Tobias Fischer  Simon de Brouwer  Esfeca del Mundo 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1998,59(8):562-576

 The hydrologic structure of Taal Volcano has favored development of an extensive hydrothermal system whose prominent feature is the acidic Main Crater Lake (pH<3) lying in the center of an active vent complex, which is surrounded by a slightly alkaline caldera lake (Lake Taal). This peculiar situation makes Taal prone to frequent, and sometimes catastrophic, hydrovolcanic eruptions. Fumaroles, hot springs, and lake waters were sampled in 1991, 1992, and 1995 in order to develop a geochemical model for the hydrothermal system. The low-temperature fumarole compositions indicate strong interaction of magmatic vapors with the hydrothermal system under relatively oxidizing conditions. The thermal waters consist of highly, moderately, and weakly mineralized solutions, but none of them corresponds to either water–rock equilibrium or rock dissolution. The concentrated discharges have high Na contents (>3500 mg/kg) and low SO₄/Cl ratios (<0.3). The Br/Cl ratio of most samples suggests incorporation of seawater into the hydrothermal system. Water and dissolved sulfate isotopic compositions reveal that the Main Crater Lake and spring discharges are derived from a deep parent fluid (T≈300  °C), which is a mixture of seawater, volcanic water, and Lake Taal water. The volcanic end member is probably produced in the magmatic-hydrothermal environment during absorption of high-temperature gases into groundwater. Boiling and mixing of the parent water give rise to the range of chemical and isotopic characteristics observed in the thermal discharges. Incursion of seawater from the coastal region to the central part of the volcano is supported by the low water levels of the lakes and by the fact that Lake Taal was directly connected to the China sea until the sixteenth century. The depth to the seawater-meteoric water interface is calculated to be 80 and 160 m for the Main Crater Lake and Lake Taal, respectively. Additional data are required to infer the hydrologic structure of Taal. Geochemical surveillance of the Main Crater Lake using the SO₄/Cl, Na/K, or Mg/Cl ratio cannot be applied straightforwardly due to the presence of seawater in the hydrothermal system. Received: 12 February 1997 / Accepted: 26 January 1998  相似文献   

Narrow-band photometry and the stellar populations in elliptical galaxies     

Karl D. Rakos  Tobias J. Kreidl  James M. Schombert 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,170(1-2):239-244

The modified Strömgrenuvby filter system, which has been used to investigate the spectrophotometric evolution of elliptical galaxies, is also found to be a powerful tool for the determination of stellar parameters in elliptical galaxies, especially metal content and the stellar type of the dominant population. We present an introduction to the behaviour of the filter system based on comparison to stellar libraries and then explore the results with respect to composite systems: globular clusters, spirals, and ellipticals.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献