Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Takeshi Izumo  Matthieu Lengaigne  Jérôme Vialard  Jing-Jia Luo  Toshio Yamagata  Gurvan Madec 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):291-310

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

Dynamical seasonal prediction of Southern African summer precipitation     

Chaoxia Yuan  Tomoki Tozuka  Willem A. Landman  Toshio Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3357-3374

Prediction skill for southern African (16°–33°E, 22°–35°S) summer precipitation in the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier coupled model is assessed for the period of 1982–2008. Using three different observation datasets, deterministic forecasts are evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficients, whereas scores of relative operating characteristic and relative operating level are used to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. We have found that these scores for December–February precipitation forecasts initialized on October 1st are significant at 95 % confidence level. On a local scale, the level of prediction skill in the northwestern and central parts of southern Africa is higher than that in northeastern South Africa. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the major source of predictability, but the relationship with ENSO is too strong in the model. The Benguela Niño, the basin mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, the subtropical dipole modes in the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Oceans and ENSO Modoki may provide additional sources of predictability. Within the wet season from October to the following April, the precipitation anomalies in December-February are the most predictable. This study presents promising results for seasonal prediction of precipitation anomaly in the extratropics, where seasonal prediction has been considered a difficult task.  相似文献   

Estimation of indirect economic loss caused by house destruction in a natural disaster     

Toshio Fujimi  Hirokazu Tatano 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):1367-1388

Designing appropriate post-disaster emergency and recovery housing policies requires accurate estimation of the indirect or “flow” loss generated by the involuntary displacement of households to housing other than their own destroyed homes. We employed the stated choice method to measure residence choice following a hypothetical disaster in a procedure developed to estimate flow loss due to house destruction. This method was applied to households in the city of Nagaoka in Niigata Prefecture to estimate flow loss for a range of residence types and residence attributes following relocation. The results revealed that the relocation residence type itself (such as a shelter, temporary dwelling, rental housing, or one’s own home) had a substantial effect on residence choice. Regarding residence attributes, residential expenses such as rent, housing loans, and spaciousness had a significant effect on residence choice. Moreover, we found that respondents placed a very high value on living in their own home compared with other residence types, indicating that subsidizing the prompt repair and rebuilding of private homes is likely to be an effective recovery support policy. In addition, a cost–benefit analysis of our results revealed that rent subsidies are more efficient than the construction of public housing as a means of financially assisting economically constrained households after a disaster.  相似文献   

Paleoenvironmental analysis of the Mawaki archaeological site,central Japan,in relation to the stratigraphic position of dolphin bones     

Yasuto Itoh  Keiji Takemura  Toshio Nakamura  Shin Hasegawa  Hideki Takada 《Geoarchaeology》2011,26(4):461-478

In order to elucidate the paleoenvironment associated with the early Holocene Mawaki archaeological site on the Noto Peninsula of central Japan, a high‐resolution stratigraphic study was conducted of 17 boreholes drilled at the archaeological site. We selected three boreholes for which lithological and/or chronological data are reported. Initial magnetic susceptibility was utilized for correlation of clastic core samples with the assistance of 26 radiocarbon dates. Four lithological units (A, B, C, and D in ascending order) were identified and interpreted as a sequence in a cycle of marine transgression and regression. Dated coastal horizons were chosen to indicate former sea levels. A Holocene relative sea level curve was generated on the basis of the geological data, and a rapid rise from 8000cal. yr B.P. to 7000cal. yr B.P. and a succeeding minor sea level fall represent the basic eustatic trend around the Sea of Japan because hydroisostatic and tectonic effects are moderate in the study area. Abundant dolphin bones lay just above the top of the marine sequence (boundary between Units C and D), located in the seashore environment. Cultural artifacts are found in a subaerial deposit (Unit D) near the dolphin bone level that is assigned to a period of high, stable sea level after the post‐glacial eustatic highstand. Dolphin bones are associated with stone artifacts (arrowheads, knives, and scrapers) and ritual wood columns, indicating the presence of a longstanding fishery during the early Holocene on the Sea of Japan coast. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Improved description of global mixed-layer depth using Argo profiling floats     

Shigeki Hosoda  Tsuyoshi Ohira  Kanako Sato  Toshio Suga 《Journal of Oceanography》2010,66(6):773-787

A global data set describing the gridded mixed-layer depth (MLD) in 10-day intervals was produced using high-quality Argo float data from 2001 to 2009. The characteristics and advantages provided by the new MLD data set are described here, including a comparison based on two different thresholds and using data sets of different vertical and temporal resolution. The MLD in the data set was estimated on the basis of a shallower depth of the iso-thermal layer (TLD) or iso-pycnal layer (PLD), calculated using the finite difference method. The MLD data are incorporated into 2° × 2° grid in the global ocean, including marginal seas. Also, two threshold values were used to examine differences in the MLD and its seasonal temporal variability. The characteristics and advantages of using the Argo 10-day intervals to determine the MLD were then confirmed by comparing those data with the station buoy daily means and the Argo monthly means. With respect to vertical and temporal resolutions, the Argo 10-day data has two distinct advantages: (1) improved representation of the MLD vertical change due to high vertical resolution, especially during periods of large MLD variability and (2) more detailed representation of the temporal change in MLD than achieved with the Argo monthly mean data, especially from winter to spring in mid and high latitudes. These advantages were maintained in the case of a larger threshold despite the fact that the MLD is rather deep and the detailed variation in its distribution differs depending on the season and location. This study also investigated the relative influence of TLD and PLD to the MLD calculation for each grid. Generally, the MLD is primarily determined based on the PLD at low and mid latitudes (TLD > PLD), whereas the TLD is more important at high latitudes, especially in winter (TLD < PLD). In the case of a larger threshold, the area of the larger PLD influence spreads polewards because of the greater effect of salinity in winter. Although there are some differences in the effect of temperature and salinity in estimations of the MLD, both are indispensable factors for the MLD estimations even at different thresholds.  相似文献   

Petrographic and magnetic properties of tephra in a deep-sea core from the northwest Pacific     

Toshio Furuta 《Marine Geology》1976,20(3):229-237

All the tephra layers sampled from a core in the northwest Pacific have both ortho-and clinopyroxenes as essential minerals, most of them containing hornblende and some of them biotite, zircon, apatite and olivine. Refractive indices of volcanic glass shards range between 1.49 and 1.53. Comparison of the refractive indices with those of artificial glass beads as well as the mineralogical composition of the tephra suggest that its sources are possibly acidic volcanoes in the Japanese island arc. Magnetic and crystallographic features of the ferromagnetic constituents in tephra have also shown that the tephra originated not from oceanic basalt but from acidic volcanoes.  相似文献   

Fifty years of the 137°E repeat hydrographic section in the western North Pacific Ocean     

Eitarou Oka  Masao Ishii  Toshiya Nakano  Toshio Suga  Shinya Kouketsu  Masatoshi Miyamoto  Hideyuki Nakano  Bo Qiu  Shusaku Sugimoto  Yusuke Takatani 《Journal of Oceanography》2018,74(2):115-145

The 137°E repeat hydrographic section of the Japan Meteorological Agency across the western North Pacific was initiated in 1967 as part of the Cooperative Study of the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions and has been continued biannually in winter and summer. The publicly available data from the section have been widely used to reveal seasonal to decadal variations and long-term changes of currents and water masses, biogeochemical and biological properties, and marine pollutants in relation to climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In commemoration of the 50th anniversary in 2016, this review summarizes the history and scientific achievements of the 137°E section during 1967–2016. Through the publication of more than 100 papers over this 50-year span, with the frequency and significance of the publication increasing in time, the 137°E section has demonstrated its importance for future investigations of physical–biogeochemical–biological interactions on various spatiotemporal scales, and thereby its utility in enhancing process understanding to aid projections of the impact of future climate change on ocean resources and ecosystems over the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Global surface layer salinity change detected by Argo and its implication for hydrological cycle intensification   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shigeki Hosoda  Toshio Suga  Nobuyuki Shikama  Keisuke Mizuno 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(4):579-586

We investigated changes in the global distribution of surface-layer salinity by comparing 2003–2007 Argo-float data with annual mean climatological surface-layer salinity data for 1960–1989 from the World Ocean Database 2005. The two datasets showed similar patterns, with low values in subpolar and tropical regions and higher values in the subtropics. The recent Argo data indicate that the contrast between low and high salinity has intensified in all areas except the subpolar North Atlantic. The intensified contrast of the surface layer salinity was maintaining for 2003–2007. Using a simple method, we attempted to estimate evaporation and precipitation changes on the basis of surface-layer salinity changes. The results show a high probability that the global hydrological cycle has increased in the past 30 years.  相似文献