Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure     

Mark Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Ian Chapman  Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

Eruption episodes and magma recharge events in andesitic systems: Mt Taranaki,New Zealand     

Michael B. Turner  Shane J. Cronin  Ian E. Smith  Robert B. Stewart  Vince E. Neall 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Eruption episodes, where a series of eruption events are generically related, can include the eruption of a wide spectrum of volcanic activity over decadal periods. This paper concentrates on the opening phases of an eruption episode which occurred approximately 1800 yrs BP from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. These events spanned the eruption of differing bulk compositions and styles from two distinct vent locations; an andesitic sub-plinian eruption from the summit vent and a scoria cone-building eruption of basaltic magma from a satellite vent. Compositional profiles and zoning textures of plagioclase, amphibole and clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the opening andesitic event show evidence of magma mixing and subsequent crystallisation just prior to the initiation of the eruption episode. Titanomagnetite grain morphology and Ti variation suggest that the magma mixing event occurred within a few days to weeks before the eruption acting as a trigger for it. We present a magmatic model which is constrained by the petrological observations and eruptions of the episode. In this model magma differentiation at depth causes its rise and recharging of a mid-crustal magma storage area at 5–7 km. Although the recharging magma differed slightly in oxygen fugacity and temperature, it was compositionally and physically similar enough to the residing andesitic magma to allow efficient mixing. The petrological characteristics described here can be readily observed and enable identification of mixing events in other recent eruption episodes.  相似文献   

Phytate as a novel phosphorus-specific paleo-indicator in aquatic sediments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Benjamin L. Turner  Kaarina Weckström 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,42(3):391-400

A reliable geochemical paleo-indicator for phosphorus remains elusive, despite the importance of understanding historical changes in the nutrient status of aquatic ecosystems. We assessed the potential of phytate (salts of myo-inositol hexakisphosphate) as a novel phosphorus-specific paleo-indicator by measuring its concentrations in dated sediments from an embayment in Helsinki, Finland, with a known 200-year history of trophic changes. Phytate was extracted in a solution containing sodium hydroxide and EDTA and detected by solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy with spectral deconvolution. Concentrations varied markedly with sediment depth and paralleled previously determined changes in diatom assemblages and geochemical indicators linked to trophic status. In contrast, total sediment phosphorus did not reflect phosphorus inputs to the embayment, presumably due to the mobilization of inorganic phosphate under anoxic conditions during periods of high pollutant loading. Importantly, phytate appeared to be stable in these brackish sediments, in contrast to other organic and inorganic phosphates which declined abruptly with depth. We therefore conclude that phytate represents a potentially important indicator of historical changes in phosphorus inputs to water bodies, although additional studies are required to confirm its stability under conditions likely to be encountered in lakes and coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki,New Zealand     

Michael B. Turner  Mark S. Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Robert B. Stewart 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(8):903-918

Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.  相似文献   

The price of spice: Ethnic minority livelihoods and cardamom commodity chains in upland northern Vietnam     

Claire Tugault‐Lafleur  Sarah Turner 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2009,30(3):388-403

The northern uplands of Vietnam are witness to rapidly developing commodity markets for a range of forest and agricultural products. Since the early 1990s the cultivation of black cardamom (Amomum aromaticum) has become a source of cash income for a growing number of ethnic minority households in these uplands. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, and utilizing a commodity chain and livelihoods approach, this article investigates the contemporary dynamics surrounding the cultivation, harvesting and trade of dried cardamom fruit from Hmong cultivators in Lao Cai province to consumers elsewhere in Vietnam and beyond to China and the global market. We analyse the spatial and social structures of these commodity chains, drawing attention to a range of mechanisms of access. We find that these mechanisms are reliant upon specific ethnic relations as well as different forms of capital that together sustain economic advantages for particular actors. While focusing on the ethnic minority cultivators active in these commodity chains, we also call for more nuanced understandings of how the trade in forest products fits within local agricultural systems and household livelihood decision making processes in the Vietnam uplands.  相似文献   

An XMM‐Newton survey of broad iron lines in AGN     

K. Nandra  P. M. O'Neill  I. M. George  J. N. Reeves  T. J. Turner 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2006,327(10):1039-1042

We report on the iron Kα line properties of a sample of Seyfert galaxies observed with the XMM‐Newton EPIC pn instrument. Using a systematic and uniform analysis, we find that complexity at iron‐K is extremely common in the XMM‐Newton spectra. Once appropriate soft X‐ray absorption, narrow 6.4 keV emission and associated Compton reflection are accounted for, ∼75% of the sample show an improvement when a further component is introduced. The typical properties of the broad emission are both qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with previous results from ASCA. The complexity is in general very well described by relativistic accretion disk models. In most cases the characteristic emission radius is constrained to be within ∼50R _g, where strong gravitational effects become important. We find in about 1/3 of the sample the accretion disk interpretation is strongly favoured over competing models. In a few objects no broad line is apparent. We find evidence for emission within 6R _g in only two cases, both of which exhibit highly complex absorption. Evidence for black hole spin based on the X‐ray spectra therefore remains tentative. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact     

Bryant M. Wyatt  Jonathan M. Petz  William J. Sumpter  Ty R. Turner  Edward L. Smith  Baylor G. Fain  Taylor J. Hutyra  Scott A. Cook  John H. Gresham  Michael F. Hibbs  Shaukat N. Goderya 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2018,39(2):26

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.  相似文献   

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea     

Adrianna Ianora  Raffaella Casotti  Mauro Bastianini  Christophe Brunet  Giuliana D’Ippolito  Francesco Acri  Angelo Fontana  Adele Cutignano  Jefferson T. Turner  Antonio Miralto 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(3):399-410

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.  相似文献   

Beach nourishments at Coolangatta Bay over the period 1987–2005: Impacts and lessons     

Bruno Castelle  Ian L. Turner  Xavier Bertin  Rodger Tomlinson 《Coastal Engineering》2009

Erosion of the southern Gold Coast beaches (SE Queensland, Australia) was exacerbated after the extension of the Tweed River training walls in the early 1960s. To achieve the objective of restoring and maintaining beach amenity, significant nourishment works have been undertaken in Coolangatta Bay over the past 30 years. Particularly, under the Tweed River Entrance Sand Bypassing Project (TRESBP) since 1995, a number of nourishment campaigns and the implementation of a permanent sand bypass system in 2001 have resulted in significant changes of Coolangatta Bay morphology. The present case study investigates the influence of both wave climate and nourishment works on the area extending from the updrift Snapper Rocks area to downdrift Kirra Beach. SWAN spectral wave model is implemented at Coolangatta Bay area and forced by the global wave model WW3 to estimate wave forcing and the potential natural longshore drift entering in Coolangatta. Specific transects extracted from accurate bathymetric surveys are used to investigate and quantify Coolangatta Bay sedimentation for the period 1987–2005. A network of Argus video stations provides high sample rate information on the shoreline evolution. Results show that, over the past 10 years, Coolangatta Bay has infilled rapidly. Sedimentation reached up to 6 m in some areas between 1995 and 2005, with beach width increasing by 200 m at Kirra Beach. Rapid seaward shoreline migration is consistent with the intense over-pumping of sand relative to the natural potential to move sand alongshore. The nourishment strategy used during this project has successfully delivered large amounts of sand to the southern Gold Coast embayment, although it has been up to now controversial from many community perspectives. The artificial sand bypassing process proved to be much more efficient than depositing the dredged sand in the nearshore area which requires a significant period of low energy condition in order for the deposited sediment to migrate shoreward and weld to the shore. This case study confirms that, when carefully undertaken, sand bypassing is a sustainable and flexible soft engineering approach which can work in concert with natural processes.  相似文献   

Accumulation of Cu and Zn in discarded antifouling paint particles by the marine gastropod, Littorina littorea     

Melanie Gammon  Andrew Turner  Murray T. Brown 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,84(4):447-452

The short-term (5 day) accumulation of Cu and Zn in different tissues of the marine gastropod, Littorina littorea, has been studied in the presence of 10 mg l⁻¹ of antifouling paint particles and pre- or simultaneously contaminated algal food (Ulva lactuca). Accumulation of Cu was observed in the head–foot, digestive gland–gonad complex and gills to extents dependent on how and when food was contaminated and administered. However, retention of Zn was only observed in the gills and only when L. littorea and U. lactuca were simultaneously exposed to paint particles. Relative to the alga, faecal material was highly enriched in Zn, suggesting that the animal is able to rapidly eliminate this metal, most likely through the formation and egestion of insoluble phosphate granules. Thus, L. littorea is a useful biomonitor of marine contamination by antifouling applications in respect of Cu but not Zn.  相似文献