Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change     

Shaochun Huang  Valentina Krysanova  Hermann Österle  Fred F. Hattermann 《水文研究》2010,24(23):3289-3306

In most of Europe, an increase in average annual surface temperature of 0·8 °C is observed, and a further increase is projected. Precipitation tends to increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, with variable trends in central Europe. The climate scenarios for Germany suggest an increase in precipitation in western Germany and a decrease in eastern Germany, and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter. When investigating the effects of climate change, impacts on water resources are among the main concerns. In this study, the first German‐wide impact assessment of water fluxes dynamics under climate change is presented in a spatially and temporally distributed manner using the state‐of‐the‐art regional climate model, Statistical Regional (STAR) model and the semi‐distributed process‐based eco‐hydrological model, soil and water integrated model (SWIM). All large river basins in Germany (lower Rhine, upper Danube, Elbe, Weser and Ems) are included. A special focus of the study was on data availability, homogeneity of data sets, related uncertainty propagation in the model results and scenario‐related uncertainty. After the model calibration and validation (efficiency from 0·6 to 0·9 in 80% of cases) the water flow components were simulated at the hydrotope level, and the spatial distributions were compared with those in the Hydrological Atlas of Germany. The actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions. The results for the second scenario period 2051–2060 show that water discharge in all six rivers would be 8–30% lower in summer and autumn compared with the reference period, and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). However, the uncertainty of impacts, especially in winter and for high water flows, remains high. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flexural uplift of a lithospheric slab near the Vema transform (Central Atlantic): Timing and mechanisms     

Enrico Bonatti  Daniele Brunelli  W. Roger Buck  Anna Cipriani  Paola Fabretti  Valentina Ferrante  Luca Gasperini  Marco Ligi   《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(3-4):642-655

The Vema Transverse Ridge (VTR) is a prominent, long and narrow topographic anomaly that runs for over 300 km along a sea floor spreading flow line south of the Vema transform at 11° N in the Atlantic. It rises abruptly about 140 km from the axis of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) in 10 Myr old crust and runs continuously up to 25 Myr old crust. It reaches over 3 km above the predicted lithospheric thermal contraction level. It is absent in crust younger than 10 Myr; thus, the uplift of the VTR must have ended roughly 10 Ma. The VTR is interpreted as the exposed edge of a flexured and uplifted slab of oceanic lithosphere that was generated at an 80 km long MAR segment. Based on satellite gravimetry imagery this MAR segment was born roughly 50 Ma and increased its length at an average rate of 1.6 mm/yr. Multibeam data show that the MAR-parallel sea floor fabric south of the VTR shifts its orientation by 5° to 10° clockwise in 11–12 Myr old crust, indicating a change at that time of the orientation of the MAR axis and of the position of the Euler rotation pole. This change caused extension normal to the transform, followed between 12 and 10 Ma by flexure of the edge of the lithospheric slab, uplift of the VTR at a rate of 2 to 4 mm/yr, and exposure of a lithospheric section (Vema Lithospheric Section or VLS) at the northern edge of the slab, parallel to the Vema transform. Ages of pelagic carbonates encrusting ultramafic rocks sampled at the base of the VLS at different distances from the MAR axis suggest that the entire VTR rose vertically as a single block within the active transform offset. A 50 km long portion of the crest of the VTR rose above sea level, subsided, was truncated at sea level and covered by a carbonate platform. Subaerial and submarine erosion has gradually removed material from the top of the VTR and has modified its slopes. Spreading half rate of the crust south of the transform decreased from 17.2 mm/yr between 26 and 19 Ma to 16.9 mm/yr between 19 and 10 Ma, to 13.6 mm/yr from 10 Ma to present. The slowing down of spreading occurred close in time to the change in ridge/transform geometry, suggesting that the two events are related. A numerical model relates lithospheric flexure to extension normal to the transform, suggesting that the extent of the uplift depends on the thickness of the brittle layer, consistent with the observed greater uplift of the older lithosphere along the VTR.  相似文献   

Problems of agriculture in Slovenia with special reference to Cirkovce     

Mirko Pak  Valentina Brečko 《GeoJournal》1998,46(3):257-261

The transition in the Slovenian countryside is examined through a case study of Cirkovce, a local centre for the central southern section of the Dravsko polje plain where natural and socio-geographical factors underpin a mixed rural-urban structure. Farming is intensive, but a high percentage of people are now employed outside agriculture; a situation which is reflected clearly in the appearance of the settlement. The process of rural depopulation, balanced by the growth of employment in industry and services, is reflected in a secondary knot of settlement around Cirkovce's railway station. Agriculture is still very significant but there needs to be some consolidation of landholding to create larger units suitable for market production and food processing. But the village must also improve its range of functions and provide a better environment for the non-agricultural population which will become increasing important for its future development. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Export fluxes of biogenic matter in the presence and absence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea     

Catherine Lalande  Jacqueline M. Grebmeier  Paul Wassmann  Lee W. Cooper  Mikhail V. Flint  Valentina M. Sergeeva 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

Drifting sediment traps were deployed at 9 stations in May-June (ice-covered conditions) and July-August (ice-free conditions) 2004 in the Chukchi Sea to investigate the variability in export fluxes of biogenic matter in the presence and absence of sea ice cover. Measurements of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), phytoplankton, zooplankton fecal pellets, and the stable carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) of the sinking material were performed along Barrow Canyon (BC) and a parallel shelf-to-basin transect from East Hanna Shoal (EHS) to the Canada Basin. POC export fluxes were similarly high in the presence (378±106 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) and in the absence of ice cover (442±203 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) at the BC stations, while fluxes were significantly higher in the absence (129±98 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) than in the presence of ice cover (44±29 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) at the EHS stations. The C/N ratios and δ¹³C values of sinking organic particles indicated that POC export fluxes on the Chukchi continental shelf were mostly composed of freshly produced labile material, except at the EHS stations under ice cover where the exported matter was mostly composed of refractory material probably advected into the EHS region. Chl-a fluxes were higher under ice cover than in ice-free water, however, relatively low daily loss rates of Chl-a and similar phytoplankton carbon fluxes in ice-covered and ice-free water suggest the retention of phytoplankton in the upper water column. An increase in fecal pellet carbon fluxes in ice-free water reflected higher grazing pressure in the absence of ice cover. Elevated daily loss rates of POC at the BC stations confirmed other indications that Barrow Canyon is an important area of carbon export to the basin and/or benthos. These results support the conclusion that there are large spatial and temporal variations in export fluxes of biogenic matter on the Chukchi continental shelf, although export fluxes may be similar in the presence and in the absence of ice cover in highly productive regions.  相似文献   

Spatial patterning of water quality in Biscayne Bay, Florida as a function of land use and water management   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Caccia VG  Boyer JN 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(11):1416-1429

An objective classification analysis was performed on a water quality data set from 25 sites collected monthly during 1994-2003. The water quality parameters measured included: TN, TON, DIN, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, TP, SRP, TN:TP ratio, TOC, DO, CHL A, turbidity, salinity and temperature. Based on this spatial analysis, Biscayne Bay was divided into five zones having similar water quality characteristics. A robust nutrient gradient, driven mostly by dissolved inorganic nitrogen, from alongshore to offshore in the main Bay, was a large determinant in the spatial clustering. Two of these zones (Alongshore and Inshore) were heavily influenced by freshwater input from four canals which drain the South Dade agricultural area, Black Point Landfill, and sewage treatment plant. The North Bay zone, with high turbidity, phytoplankton biomass, total phosphorus, and low DO, was affected by runoff from five canals, the Munisport Landfill, and the urban landscape. The South Bay zone, an embayment surrounded by mangrove wetlands with little urban development, was high in dissolved organic constituents but low in inorganic nutrients. The Main Bay was the area most influenced by water exchange with the Atlantic Ocean and showed the lowest nutrient concentrations. The water quality in Biscayne Bay is therefore highly dependent of the land use and influence from the watershed.  相似文献   

The 1999 M_w 6.0 earthquake sequence in the southern Baikal rift, Asia, and its seismotectonic implications     

Natalia Radziminovitch  Jacques Déverchère  Valentina Melnikova  Vladimir San'kov  Nadezhda Giljova 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,161(2):387-400

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Drought projection based on a hybrid drought index using Artificial Neural Networks          下载免费PDF全文

Tao Yang  Xudong Zhou  Zhongbo Yu  Valentina Krysanova  Bo Wang 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2635-2648

The Tarim River Basin is a special endorheic arid drainage basin in Central Asia, characterized by limited rainfall and high evaporation as common in deserts, while water is supplied mainly by glacier and snow melt from the surrounding mountains. The existing drought indices can hardly capture the drought features in this region as droughts are caused by two dominant factors (meteorological and hydrological conditions). To overcome the problem, a new hybrid drought index (HDI), integrating the meteorological and hydrological drought regimes, was developed and tested in the basin in the work. The index succeeded in revealing the drought characteristics and the ensemble influence better than the single standardized precipitation index or the hydrological index. The Artificial Neural Network approach based on temperature and precipitation observations was set up to simulate the HDI change. The method enabled constructing scenarios of future droughts in the region using climate simulation of the GCMs under four RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP5 project. The simulations in the study have shown that the water budget patterns in the Tarim River Basin are more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Dominated by temperature rise causing an accelerating snow/glacier melt, the frequency of drought months is projected to decrease by about 14% in the next decades (until 2035). The drought duration is expected to be shortened to 3 months on average, with the severity alleviated. However, the region would still suffer more severe droughts with a high intensity in some years. The general decrease in drought frequency and intensity over the region in the future would be beneficial for water resources management and agriculture development in the oases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Decomposition rate and invertebrate colonization of seagrass detritus along a hydrodynamic gradient in a Mediterranean coastal basin: The Stagnone di Marsala (Italy) case study     

Valentina Costa  Antonio Mazzola  Francesca Rossi  Salvatrice Vizzini 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(6)

Seagrass leaf litter decomposition is a key component of marine carbon flow driven by both biotic and abiotic factors, including water movement. In this study, we analyse Posidonia oceanica litter decomposition and invertebrate colonization in three sites with different hydrodynamics in a coastal basin. Litterbags were put on the sea bed along a gradient of distance from the open sea, implying a different level of water exchange. Leaf litter mass loss and carbon and nitrogen concentration were analysed, and density and biomass of benthic invertebrates colonizing litterbags were recorded after 3, 7, 14, 47, 101, 152 and 221 days. Results showed that in the most sheltered site, the leaf litter decomposition rate, the invertebrate density and biomass and the detrital carbon release were the lowest. The reduction of the decomposition rates of seagrass leaves in the site characterized by low hydrodynamic forces may promote organic matter burial and carbon stocks, emphasizing the role of coastal basins such as ponds and lagoons as sinks of carbon and the important role of seagrass detritus in the Blue Carbon global balance.  相似文献   

Limestone Provenance in Roman Lime‐Volcanic Ash Mortars from the Villa dei Quintili,Rome     

Giusj Valentina Fichera  Cristina Maria Belfiore  Mauro Francesco La Russa  Silvestro Antonio Ruffolo  Donatella Barca  Riccardo Frontoni  Giuliana Galli  Antonino Pezzino 《Geoarchaeology》2015,30(2):79-99

Roman mortars were collected from the Villa dei Quintili in Rome, an archaeological site consisting of numerous edifices from nine construction phases dating from the 2nd century A.D. to modern times. A multianalytical approach was used on 34 mortar samples to infer the evolution of production techniques over time and to identify the source area of calcareous raw materials used in the preparation of the lime. Optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy‐dispersive system, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to study the samples. The major and trace element data were compared with the compositions of two types of limestone samples (Calcare Massiccio and Calcare Maiolica) collected from the Cornicolani Mountains. The results suggest that the technological practices and the calcareous raw materials used for lime production remained unchanged over the time period considered (2nd century A.D. to 3rd century A.D.). The compositions of lime‐related particles in the mortars match those of Calcare Maiolica, which suggests its use as raw material for lime production. On the whole, the results are in agreement with data from existing literature regarding both the use by Roman builders of specific raw materials for the mortars’ production and the relative supply area.  相似文献   

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction     

Roland Hischier  Francesca Reale  Valentina Castellani  Serenella Sala 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).  相似文献