北斗RDSS用户机测试系统指标监测校准方案设计     

唐斌  柳奇  张益青  舒展  李腾 《全球定位系统》2012,37(1):13-16

北斗卫星无线电测定业务(RDSS)用户机是我国北斗卫星导航试验系统的应用终端,测试系统可为用户机研制和使用提供可靠保障。鉴于RDSS体制的特殊性,测试系统的重要性能指标包括:用户机入站信号测量指标、用户机时延测量指标、以及用户机测试系统出站信号。为确保测试系统测试标准的统一,需要对测试系统的这些指标进行监测和校准。通过对普通用户机提出技术改进设计,为测试系统校准提供可行性方案,实现测试系统指标向标准测试仪器的溯源。  相似文献   

三种在线GPS精密单点定位软件的精度比较   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

夏朋飞  蔡昌盛  陈必焰 《全球定位系统》2012,37(2):61-64

利用APPS-PPP、CSRS-PPP和GAPS-PPP三种在线GPS精密单点定位（PPP）软件处理了不同纬度地区以及太阳耀斑爆发生期间的IGS跟踪站数据。通过对处理结果的精度分析可知：三种处理软件单天解在E、N、U三个方向上的精度均优于3.5cm,且三个坐标分量上的互差不超过1.5cm;在太阳耀斑发生期间的定位精度没有明显降低。  相似文献   

The Dynamical and Climate Tests of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Using the Second-Order Adams-Bashforth Method          下载免费PDF全文

赵滨  钟青 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(6):738-749

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A View of Earth System Model Development          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Bin  ZHOU Tianjun  YU Yongqiang  Bin WANG 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(1):1-17

This paper gives a definition of earth system model and shows three development phases of it, including physical climate system model, earth climate system model, and earth system model, based on an inves- tigation of climate system models in the world. It provides an expatiation on the strategic significance of future development of earth system model, an introduction of some representative scientific research plans on development of earth system model home and abroad, and a review of its status and trends based on the models of the fourth assessment report （AR4） ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. Some suggestions on future development of earth system model in China are given, which are expected to be helpful to advance the development.  相似文献   

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)     

Bin Wang  June-Yi Lee  In-Sik Kang  J. Shukla  C.-K. Park  A. Kumar  J. Schemm  S. Cocke  J.-S. Kug  J.-J. Luo  T. Zhou  B. Wang  X. Fu  W.-T. Yun  O. Alves  E. K. Jin  J. Kinter  B. Kirtman  T. Krishnamurti  N. C. Lau  W. Lau  P. Liu  P. Pegion  T. Rosati  S. Schubert  W. Stern  M. Suarez  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.  相似文献   

与广东持续性干旱事件有关的两类海温异常型   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

林爱兰  郑彬  谷德军  李春晖  梁建茵 《高原气象》2009,28(5):1189-1201

利用1961\_2005年广东省86个常规地面观测站降水资料、 ERSST全球月平均海温资料以及NCEP/NCAR 大气多要素再分析资料, 分析了广东跨季节持续性干旱事件(下称广东干旱)与海温外强迫之间的关系及其物理过程。结果表明, 与广东干旱相关的海温异常有赤道东太平洋海温负异常型（即La Nia型）、 赤道中太平洋海温正异常型两种类型。约在1975年之前, 广东干旱基本上属于La Nia型; 在1975年之后, 除了La Nia型外, 赤道中太平洋海温正异常型干旱出现概率明显增加。可见, 在全球气候变暖的背景下, 广东干旱成因更复杂。近几年来广东干旱频繁发生, 与赤道中太平洋海温正异常型出现概率增加有关。La Nia型、 赤道中太平洋海温正异常型与广东干旱之间都存在物理上的联系, 不同的海温异常型对广东干旱影响的物理过程有所不同, 即使同一种海温异常型对不同季节的影响过程也有所不同, 然而所有物理过程最终都是通过改变和削弱降水所需的动力条件或水汽条件, 从而造成局地干旱的发生。  相似文献   

2008年北京奥运会期间大气气溶胶物理特征分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

陈林  石广玉  秦世广  陈彬  陈丽琼  陈焕森 《气候与环境研究》2009,14(6):665-672

应用MODIS卫星的气溶胶产品资料和地面的光学粒子计数器的资料,对比分析了北京地区2006、2007、2008年7～9月的气溶胶光学厚度、细粒子光学厚度、Angstrom指数、气溶胶粒子数浓度谱及体积谱,发现2008年北京奥运会期间(7月20日～9月20日)的气溶胶光学厚度比2006、2007年同期明显降低,气溶胶细模态光学厚度占总光学厚度的比上升,Angstrom指数上升,气溶胶细粒子数浓度没有明显相对变化,而粗粒子数浓度则减少约50%.利用大气标高,将MODIS反演的气溶胶柱的质量浓度转化为地面气溶胶质量浓度.用粒子计数器得到的体积谱,在假定气溶胶粒子密度的情况下,计算出其质量浓度.将这两种方法得到的气溶胶质量浓度与国家环境保护部公布的空气质量指数换算得到的可吸入颗粒物(PM10)质量浓度进行比较.结果表明:北京奥运期间空气质量总体达到了国家二级空气质量标准;与2006、2007年同期相比,2008年气溶胶PM10质量浓度明显下降,而这主要是由气溶胶粗粒子的减少引起的.  相似文献   

陆面气温资料的一种推广三维变分同化方法及其在简化情形的检验     

张海玲  王斌  毛嘉富 《气候与环境研究》2009,14(3):273-283

发展了一种同化窗口为1个月的陆面气温推广三维变分资料同化方法,并建立了逐日资料到月平均资料的观测算子.作为对该同化方法的初步检验,以2000年1月中国陆地区域时间分辨率低、空间分辨率较高且在高原地区与台站观测资料比较接近的CRU(Climate Research Unit)月平均陆面气温资料作为观测,以时间分辨率高、空间分辨率较低且在高原地区与台站资料有较大误差的NCEP逐日气温资料作为背景场,采用背景误差协方差矩阵(简称B矩阵)的两种简化对角形式进行同化试验,得到高时空分辨率的格点陆面气温分析场,并进行对比分析和均方根误差检验.结果显示,由两种简化形式得到的逐日资料和月平均资料的质量均得到改善,在我国东南和中部大部分地区与台站观测基本一致,在青藏高原、新疆等台站稀疏地区与地形对应良好,为M-SDGVM模型或其他陆面过程模式高质量陆面气象驱动场的准备提供了一种新的手段.尤其在B矩阵中考虑了方差逐日变化的简化形式所得到的分析场整体上要优于不考虑的,这为最终在B矩阵中考虑协方差(即对推广三维变分同化不作简化)进一步改进同化效果打下了基础.  相似文献   

冰雪灾害对吉安市青原区森林资源危害及恢复措施     

李彬  李如珠  曾正泉 《气象与减灾研究》2009,32(3):48-51

2008年的低温冻雨冰雪灾害性天气对吉安市青原区林业生产造成了极大损失。以青原区8个乡镇森林为调查对象,调查不同区域、不同海拔、不同坡度、不同林种、不同树种的受灾若干特征,了解各种树种的防御雪灾的能力,提出恢复重建的具体措施,认为需要政府支持、科学经营和加强管护。  相似文献   

一次强对流的三维数值模拟分析   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

张晶晶  于华英  吴彬 《气象与减灾研究》2009,32(1):39-45

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的完全弹性三维雹云数值模式（IAP—CSM3D）,对2007年7月21日发生在湛江的一次强对流进行数值模拟,分析了强对流的气流结构、垂直涡度、雷达回波及含水量分布变化特征。结果表明,模拟的回波最大强度与雷达实测结果较吻合。模拟的强对流发展阶段气流结构的典型特征为下层水平辐合,上层水平辐散,气流在5km高度发生转向;处于成熟阶段的底层辐合比发展阶段的更强。随着时间的推移,近地层气流先辐合后辐散,下沉辐散气流一直持续到冰雹云消散。模拟的风暴云高含水量中心与强回波中心相对应,出现在上升气流最大区域附近,这说明该风暴云的动力场与物质场配合较好。  相似文献