Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies     

Weilai PEI  Shiyong ZHOU  Jiancang ZHUANG  Ziyao XIONG  Jian PIAO 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(2):257-268

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.  相似文献   

Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China     

Yin  Jiabo  Guo  Shenglian  Yang  Yan  Chen  Jie  Gu  Lei  Wang  Jun  He  Shaokun  Wu  Boyang  Xiong  Jinghua 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(9):1772-1787

Science China Earth Sciences - Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of the climate system, thus affecting the energy budget and water cycle process of the...  相似文献   

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 ​MS 6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai, China     

Hongfeng Yang  Dun Wang  Rumeng Guo  Mengyu Xie  Yang Zang  Yue Wang  Qiang Yao  Chuang Cheng  Yanru An  Yingying Zhang 《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(1):100113

The M_S 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province, west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022. The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region, with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 ?km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008. Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 ?km along strike, with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 ?m. We construct a finite fault model with constraints from InSAR observations, which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake. The major slip asperity is confined within 10 ?km at depth, with the maximum slip of 3.5 ?m. Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for ～10 ?s. Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area, consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys. Aftershock locations (up to January 21, 2022) exhibit two segments, extending to ～20 ?km in depth. The largest one reaches M_S 5.3, locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone. Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap, as well as estimated stressing rate on faults, significant surface-breaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system, which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks, and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.  相似文献   

内蒙古科右中旗两类基性岩的年代学、地球化学及其构造意义          下载免费PDF全文

金松  李英杰  钱程  张杨  孟都  杨海波  王博  伍光锋 《地球科学》2022,47(1):342-356

兴蒙造山带东段晚古生代构造演化存在争议,基性岩浆作用是构造演化过程中的良好地质记录. 对贺根山缝合带东段内蒙古科右中旗构造混杂岩带内的杜尔基基性岩和甲哈达基性岩进行了系统的地质特征、岩相学、年代学和地球化学研究. 杜尔基基性岩岩性为枕状玄武岩和辉绿岩,辉绿岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄为348.3±2.6 Ma,为低钾拉斑玄武系列,相对富集LILE,亏损Nb、Ta等高场强元素. 甲哈达基性岩岩性主要为玄武岩,锆石U-Pb年龄为317.6±3.0 Ma,为钙碱性系列,同样具有HFSE亏损和LILE富集的特点,与杜尔基基性岩相比更加富集LILE和LREE. 结合贺根山缝合带早石炭世蛇绿岩及洋内俯冲作用的研究成果,认为从杜尔基基性岩到甲哈达基性岩的演化,可能指示了古亚洲洋东段早-晚石炭世洋内俯冲的渐进过程,洋内弧从不成熟向逐渐成熟演化.   相似文献   

Melut盆地富含CO₂油气藏的成因及期次          下载免费PDF全文

李威  窦立荣  文志刚  张光亚  程顶胜 《地球科学》2022,47(4):1459-1469

Palogue油田的发现打开了Melut盆地古近系勘探新方向,证实了北部凹陷为富油气凹陷.Palogue油田具有以下白垩统为主力烃源岩,古近系为主力成藏组合的跨时代运聚风格,幔源CO₂气体对油气的聚集和改造具有不可忽略的作用.通过对CO₂气体、原油特征、生标特征、包裹体特征进行研究,结合地层埋藏史,分析油气特征及成藏期次.结果表明:Palogue油田具有两期成藏的特征,古近纪中期发生第1期油气成藏事件,随后原油被降解;古近纪晚期-新近纪以来,伴随幔源CO₂气体油气发生第2次运移充注事件,且CO₂气体对油藏进行了强烈的气洗作用.   相似文献   

川滇黔二叠系铅锌成矿物质来源：C-H-O-S-Pb同位素制约——以云南太平子铅锌矿为例          下载免费PDF全文

丁伟品  谢财富  黄诚  张斌  辛卓  詹华思  郑立龙  孔凡全  王红兵  黄福林 《中国地质》2022,49(6):1845-1861

【研究目的】川滇黔地区铅锌矿成因具有多样性,特别是与峨眉山玄武岩的关系存在较大的争议,本文从前人关注较少的二叠系碳酸盐岩中的铅锌矿入手,研究成矿物质来源。【研究方法】以云南寻甸县太平子铅锌矿为研究对象,运用S、Pb、C、H、O同位素实验数据及流体包裹体测温等方法,对成矿物质来源及成矿流体特征进行探讨。【研究结果】矿石铅同位素组成比较均一,分布集中,²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb、²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb、²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb的变化范围分别为18.543～18.584、15.646～15.694、38.799～38.958,属于正常普通铅,具壳源特征,主要来源于基底岩石,水岩反应可能使赋矿围岩贡献少量的成矿物质。矿石硫化物δ³⁴S变化范围为-13.6‰～-7.3‰,方铅矿的δ³⁴S高于闪锌矿,硫同位素分馏并未达到平衡,生物成因硫酸盐还原作用（BSR）是还原硫的主要来源。热液方解石δ¹³C_V-PDB范围为3.8‰～4.7‰,δ¹⁸O_V-SMOW范围为12.0‰～16.7‰,相较于滇东北其他重要的铅锌矿床,具有明显的低δD、高δ¹⁸O_fluid特点,成矿流体中的水主要来源于岩浆水和有机水的混合,具有中—高温、低盐度特征。【结论】太平子铅锌矿在成矿物质、流体、成矿温度等均与区域上其他典型铅锌矿有较明显差别,具有典型的岩浆-热液成因特点。  相似文献   

巯基改性凹凸棒石黏土对土壤有效态镉及油菜吸收镉的影响     

付成  雷泞菲  裴向军  李军亚  徐欢  苏鑫  朱霞萍 《岩石矿物学杂志》2022,41(5):941-949

重金属不可降解,长期存在于土壤环境会严重影响作物安全。添加巯基改性凹凸棒石黏土(ATP-SH)到不同Cd污染程度土壤中,进行盆栽油菜实验,以石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定了土壤有效态Cd和油菜不同部位Cd的含量;采用SPSS讨论了ATP-SH添加量、土壤有效态Cd、油菜不同部位Cd的相关性;计算了油菜对Cd的富集系数及转运系数,探究了ATP-SH对土壤Cd的钝化效果及对油菜富集和转运Cd的影响。实验结果显示,添加ATP-SH后,土壤有效态Cd、油菜各部位Cd含量显著降低,土壤有效态Cd降低率为40.65%~74.27%,油菜根、茎、枝、菜籽中Cd降低率分别为29.36%~79.46%、41.44%~88.45%、43.19%~95.89%和38.02%~95.81%;ATP-SH添加量与土壤有效态Cd、油菜各部位Cd含量均呈显著或极显著负相关,土壤有效态Cd与油菜各部位Cd含量均呈显著或极显著正相关,油菜各部位之间的Cd含量存在明显正相关关系;对照组油菜根、茎、枝、菜籽对Cd的富集系数分别是实验组的1.42~4.87倍、1.71~8.66倍、1.92~24.43倍、1.61~23.76倍,油菜各部位Cd的转运系数的大小是茎＞枝＞菜籽,且茎远大于枝和菜籽,是枝和菜籽转运系数的3.5~25倍。综上,ATP-SH能降低土壤Cd的生物有效性,阻隔土壤Cd向油菜迁移。  相似文献   

High effectiveness of GRACE data in daily-scale flood modeling: case study in the Xijiang River Basin,China     

Xiong  Jinghua  Wang  Zhaoli  Guo  Shenglian  Wu  Xushu  Yin  Jiabo  Wang  Jun  Lai  Chengguang  Gong  Qiangjun 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(1):507-522

Natural Hazards - The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual...  相似文献   

重庆市实物地质资料管理工作中的难点与对策探讨     

涂岩  张雄 《地质论评》2022,68(5):2022092010-2022092010

实物地质资料管理是自然资源主管部门和馆藏机构的一项法定工作职责。由于历史原因,重庆市自变为直辖市以来实物地质资料管理工作相对滞后,近年来实物地质资料筛选工作的分级开展,实物地质资料的种类和数量呈增长趋势,粗放式分散保管在地勘单位和野外工作现场的方式已不再适应新形势,亟需规范管理。本文主要论述了重庆市实物地质资料管理现状,阐述了在实物地质资料管理工作中急需解决的难点,提出了加强实物地质资料馆藏机构建设、理顺实物地质资料管理体系、落实实物地质资料管理专项资金以及编制重庆市实物地质资料收藏规划等相关对策,为推进重庆市实物地质资料管理工作提供参考。  相似文献   

贵州都匀大亮锌矿床闪锌矿稀土元素地球化学特征及其指示意义北大核心CSCD   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

程涌 《地质与勘探》2022,58(3):465-474

贵州都匀大亮锌矿床是牛角塘铅锌矿田的重要组成部分,目前所开采的对象为近年来在“陡倾斜带”中新发现的矿体,其研究还十分薄弱。本研究采用ICP-MS测试技术,对大亮锌矿闪锌矿进行了稀土元素测试,以揭示该矿床成矿作用。结果表明,10件闪锌矿样品的ΣREE值低,质量分数为(0.15~0.40)×10^(-6)(平均0.24×10^(-6))。样品的LREE/HREE值变化范围为7.07~15.76(平均10.95),(La/Yb)_(N)值范围为4.75~28.57(平均11.54),(La/Sm)_(N)值为2.16~6.01(平均3.49),(Gd/Yb)^(N)值为0.34~3.68(平均1.67)。闪锌矿样品稀土元素呈现轻稀土富集的右倾模式,且轻稀土元素的分异程度远远高于重稀土元素。样品具有显著Eu正异常(δEu为6.60~54.29,平均18.10),无明显的Ce异常(δCe主要为0.93~1.09,平均1.01)。闪锌矿轻稀土富集及显著Eu正异常的特点表明,其稀土元素为矿石初始沉淀时从成矿热液中继承而来,未明显受到后期地质作用的影响。稀土元素特征表明该闪锌矿形成于较低温度和极强还原条件。大亮锌矿闪锌矿Y/Ho比值为11.33~32.17(平均22.71),与区域矿床及地层的对比表明成矿物质主要来自下伏地层,可能有少量来自赋矿围岩。  相似文献