Neural-network predictability experiments for nearshore sandbar migration     

L. Pape  B.G. Ruessink 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(9):1033-1042

Cross-shore migratory behavior of nearshore sandbars is commonly studied with nearshore bathymetric-evolution models that represent underlying processes of hydrodynamics and sediment transport. These models, however, struggle to reproduce natural cross-shore sandbar behavior on timescales of a few days to weeks and have uncertain skill on longer scales of months to years. One particular concern for the use of models on prediction timescales that far exceed the timescale of the modeled processes is the exponential accumulation of errors in the nonlinear model equations. The relation between cross-shore sandbar migration, sandbar location and wave height has previously been demonstrated to be weakly nonlinear on timescales of several days, but it is unknown how this nonlinearity affects the predictability of long-term (months to years) cross-shore sandbar behavior. Here we study the role of nonlinearity in the predictability of sandbar behavior on timescales of a few days to several months with data-driven neural network models. Our analyses are based on over 5600 daily-observed cross-shore sandbar locations and daily-averaged wave forcings from the Gold Coast, Australia, and Hasaki, Japan. We find that neural network models are able to hindcast many aspects of cross-shore sandbar behavior, such as rapid offshore migration during storms, slower onshore return during quiet periods, seasonal cycles and annual to interannual offshore-directed trends. Although the relation between sandbar migration, sandbar location and wave height is nonlinear, sandbar behavior can be hindcasted accurately over the entire lifespan of the sandbars at the Gold Coast. Contrastingly, it is difficult to hindcast the long-term offshore-directed trends in sandbar behavior at Hasaki because of exponential accumulation of errors over time. Our results further reveal that during periods with low-wave conditions it becomes increasingly difficult to predict sandbar locations, while during high waves predictions become increasingly accurate.  相似文献   

CaSO4-C-H2O体系研究：模拟实验与热力学探讨     

丁康乐  罗跃  单敬福  关富佳  王莎莎 《地质学报》2013,87(3):424-432

传统认为TSR成因的固态沥青(焦沥青)属于热化学反应的终端产物,不会对TSR的反应进程起到重要作用.本文以活性炭作为固态沥青(焦沥青)的模型化合物,开展了CaSO4-C-H2O体系的热模拟实验研究,探讨了CaSO4-C-H2O体系发生TSR的热力学特征.实验结果表明,CaSO4-C-H2O体系在300℃时即可启动TSR,主要生成CaCO3、H2S和CO2等产物.这一TSR门限温度要远低于以往室内利用气态或液态烃类进行的TSR模拟实验温度范围,与热力学计算结果一致.利用HSC Chemistry 5.0软件进行TSR过程模拟,发现25～200℃时CaSO4-C-H2O体系发生的TSR完全受动力学控制,在温度保持不变情况下,压力增大不利于CaSO4-C-H2O体系发生TSR.较少的含水量对TSR有一定促进作用,而含水量过多则可能抑制TSR的进行,含水量对TSR的影响可能与CaSO4在水中的饱和浓度有关.在一定的温度下,当体系pH≤2时,随着pH逐渐降低,CaSO4的量呈线性递减,但在沉积盆地地层水pH范围内(pH＞4),pH对TSR的作用可以忽略不计.CaSO4-C-H2O体系发生的TSR反应是一个放热过程,并且随着温度升高,反应热逐渐增大.在25～200℃范围内,TSR反应热为12.9～133 J/molCaSO4.热力学计算以及模拟实验结果均暗示,固态沥青(焦沥青)可能比烃类更容易参与TSR.  相似文献   

钻孔水力采矿研究方法的探讨   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

乌效鸣  胡郁乐  杨倩云  李粮纲 《探矿工程》2002,(6):24-26

综合分析工艺流程、喷射机理，水枪设计，升举效率和安全稳定性等，将钻孔水力采矿的众多技术问题归纳为5个方面析要点内容，为开展钻孔水力采矿的技术研究和技术开发工作提出基本思路。  相似文献   

Oxygen isotope composition of phenocrysts from Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island lavas: variation with fractional crystallization and evidence for assimilation     

Chris Harris  H. Stuart Smith  Anton P. le Roex 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2000,138(2):164-175

We have measured the δ¹⁸O values of the major phenocrysts (olivine, clinopyroxene and plagioclase) present in lavas from Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island. These islands, which result from the same mantle plume, have enriched radiogenic isotope ratios and are, therefore, prime candidates for an oxygen isotope signature that is distinct from that of MORB. Consistent differences between the δ¹⁸O values of olivine, pyroxene and feldspar in the Gough lavas show that the phenocrysts in the mafic Gough Island lavas are in oxygen isotope equilibrium. The olivines in lavas with SiO₂ <50 wt% have a mean δ¹⁸O value of 5.19‰, consistent with crystallization from a magma having the same oxygen isotope composition as MORB. Phenocrysts in all the Gough lavas show a systematic increase in δ¹⁸O value as silica content increases, which is consistent with closed-system fractional crystallization. The lack of enrichment in δ¹⁸O of the Gough magmas suggests that the mantle source contained <2% recycled sediment. In contrast, the Tristan lavas with SiO₂ >48 wt% contain phenocrysts which have δ¹⁸O values that are systematically ∼0.3‰ lower than their counterparts from Gough. We suggest that the parental mafic Tristan magmas were contaminated by material from the volcanic edifice that acquired low δ¹⁸O values by interaction with water at high temperatures. The highly porphyritic SiO₂-poor lavas show a negative correlation between olivine δ¹⁸O value and whole-rock silica content rather than the expected positive correlation. The minimum δ¹⁸O value occurs at an SiO₂ content of about 45 wt%. Below 45 wt% SiO₂, magmas evolved via a combination of assimilation, fractionational crystallization and crystal accumulation; above 45 wt% SiO₂, magmas appeared to have evolved via closed-system fractional crystallization. Received: 23 November 1998 / Accepted: 27 September 1999  相似文献   

Multi-fidelity meta-modeling for reservoir engineering - application to history matching     

Arthur Thenon  Véronique Gervais  Mickaële Le Ravalec 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(6):1231-1250

Defining representative reservoir models usually calls for a huge number of fluid flow simulations, which may be very time-consuming. Meta-models are built to lessen this issue. They approximate a scalar function from the values simulated for a set of uncertain parameters. For time-dependent outputs, a reduced-basis approach can be considered. If the resulting meta-models are accurate, they can be called instead of the flow simulator. We propose here to investigate a specific approach named multi-fidelity meta-modeling to reduce further the simulation time. We assume that the outputs of interest are known at various levels of resolution: a fine reference level, and coarser levels for which computations are faster but less accurate. Multi-fidelity meta-models refer to co-kriging to approximate the outputs at the fine level using the values simulated at all levels. Such an approach can save simulation time by limiting the number of fine level simulations. The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of multi-fidelity for reservoir engineering. The reduced-basis approach for time-dependent outputs is extended to the multi-fidelity context. Then, comparisons with the more usual kriging approach are proposed on a synthetic case, both in terms of computation time and predictivity. Meta-models are computed to evaluate the production responses at wells and the mismatch between the data and the simulated responses (history matching error), considering two levels of resolution. The results show that the multi-fidelity approach can outperform kriging if the target simulation time is small. Last, its potential is evidenced when used for history matching.  相似文献   

Quality of coastal and estuarine essential fish habitats: estimations based on the size of juvenile common sole (Solea solea L.)     

O. Le Pape  J. Holley  D. Gurault  Y. Dsaunay 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,58(4):793-803

Survival and growth of early fish stages are maximal in coastal and estuarine habitats where natural shallow areas serve as nurseries for a variety of widely distributed species on the continental shelf. Processes occurring in these nursery grounds during the juvenile stage affect growth and may be important in regulating the year-class strength of fishes and population size. The need, therefore, exists to protect these essential fish habitats hence to develop indicators to estimate their quality.The purpose of the present study was to use the growth of juvenile sole as a means of comparing the quality of coastal and estuarine nursery habitats in the Bay of Biscay (France). These sole nurseries were clearly identified from studies based on trawl surveys carried out during the last two decades. The size of 1-group juveniles at the end of their second summer, as estimated from these surveys, is an indicator of growth in these habitats during the juvenile phase and can be used to compare habitat quality. A model taking into account the role of seawater temperature in spatial and interannual variations of juvenile size was developed to compare growth performance in the different nursery sectors.This study shows that the size of juvenile sole after two summers of life is not density-dependent, probably because the size of the population adapts to habitat capacity after high mortality during early-juvenile stages. Size is on one hand positively related to temperature and on the other hand higher in estuarine than in non-estuarine habitats. This high growth potential of juvenile fish in estuarine areas confirms the very important role played by estuaries as nursery grounds and the essential ecological interest of these limited areas in spite of their low water quality. If a general conclusion on habitat quality is to be reached about studies based on the growth of juvenile fish, it is necessary to use not only an integrative indicator of growth, like size, representative of the intrinsic habitat quality, but also more sensitive and less integrative means, such as otolith increments or caging experiments, which better respond to anthropogenic disturbance. Moreover, it is necessary to take juvenile densities into account.  相似文献   

Gravity and S-wave modelling across the Jan Mayen Ridge,North Atlantic; implications for crustal lithology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rolf Mjelde  Inger Eckhoff  Ståle Solbakken  Shuichi Kodaira  Hideki Shimamura  Karl Gunnarsson  Ayako Nakanishi  Hajime Shiobara 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2007,28(1):27-41

The horizontal components from fourteen Ocean Bottom Seismometers deployed along four profiles focused along the western margin of the Jan Mayen microcontinent, North Atlantic, have been modelled with regard to S-waves, based on P-wave models obtained earlier. The seismic models have furthermore been constrained by 2D gravity modelling. High V _p/V _s-ratios (2.3–7.9) within the Cenozoic sedimentary section are attributed to significant porosities, whereas V _p/V _s-ratios in the order of 1.9–2.2 for the Mesozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks indicate shale-dominated lithology throughout the area. The eastern side of the Jan Mayen Ridge is interpreted as a passive, volcanic margin, based on relatively high crustal V _p/V _s-ratios (1.9), whereas lower V _p/V _s-ratios (1.75–1.8) suggest the presence of intermediate composition crust and non-volcanic margin on the western side of the ridge. In the westernmost part of the Jan Mayen Basin, slightly increased upper mantle V _p/V _s-ratios may indicate some degree of serpentization of upper mantle peridotites.  相似文献   

Effect of internal overpressure on free spanning pipelines     

Geir Moe  Harald Stle Hansen  Terje Overvik 《Ocean Engineering》1986,13(2)

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Evolution des hydrocarbures et des populations bactériennes et microphytiques dans les sédiments des marais maritimes de l'ile grande pollués par l'Amoco cadiz: 2—Evolution des peuplements microphytiques     

Therese le Campion-Alsumard  Marie-Reine Plante-Cuny  Eveline Vacelet  Gilbert Mille 《Marine environmental research》1984,11(4):275-303

In this work we attempt to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the Amoco Cadiz oil spill on benthic microalgal populations (cyanophytes and diatoms) which, under natural conditions, live on upper layers of ‘schorres’ soils or of ‘slikke’ muds in the Ile Grande salt marsh system (Côtes du Nord, France). These populations were completely destroyed in 1978 in the oil-affected sites. Ubiquitous species settled fairly rapidly on intertidal polluted muds (tidal flat). The chlorophyll a content values reached 100 μg g⁻¹ dry sediment, i.e. 1000 mg m⁻² in 1980. Conversely, the salt marsh soils are still much less densely repopulated 3 years after the Amoco Cadiz grounding—especially when they are infrequently flooded (3 to 40 μg Chl.a g⁻¹, i.e. 40 to 270 mg m⁻²). Some of these soils remain ten times less populated than reference stations.  相似文献   

All washed up: spatial and temporal variation in the wash-up and fate of chondrichthyan egg cases along a section of the Garden Route,South Africa     

S Schmöle  M Brown 《African Journal of Marine Science》2020,42(2):141-149

Washed-up chondrichthyan egg cases were collected along three different sandy beaches around Plettenberg Bay, South Africa, between April 2016 and March 2017. GPS location was recorded upon collection, and, after being soaked in fresh water for 12 hours, egg cases were identified to species level. Additionally, boreholes, damage, biofouling and state of the hatchling slit were recorded. The hatching success of each egg case was inferred from these factors. Over the year, 6 996 egg cases of nine species were collected. Egg cases of the tiger catshark Halaelurus natalensis had the highest hatching rate at 70%. Egg cases of the leopard catshark Poroderma pantherinum had the highest predation rate at 57%. Season had no significant effect either on overall egg-case counts or on per-species counts. Location, however, significantly affected the overall egg-case counts, as well as per-species counts, with the exceptions of H. natalensis and the St Joseph Callorhinchus capensis. The results of this study provide insight into chondrichthyan species occurrence and spatial variation along a section of the Garden Route in the Western Cape Province and can act as a baseline for future research.  相似文献