Flood hazard map of La Trinidad (NW Nicaragua). Method and results     

G. Furdada  L. E. Calderón  M. A. Marqués 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(2):183-195

During the Mitch Hurricane event (October 1998), severe floods occurred in the village of La Trinidad (Departamento de Estelí, NW Nicaragua), which spreads at the margin of La Trinidad river. As a consequence, the need for hazard assessment and land use planning to reduce the effects of these natural processes arose. Nicaragua is a developing country, which means that there is a scarcity of good quality data on which to base these hazard assessments (i.e., lack of detailed topographic maps, lack of meteorological and discharge data series). Therefore, the main objective of the present work was to generate a flood hazard map of La Trinidad by means of a simple method, with a resulting map easy to understand and to use by the municipality for land use planning. There is no topographic map of the area at a more detailed scale than 1:50,000. So the main document that supports all the data and on which the final hazard map was based is the orthophotograph at 1:5,000 scale (generated from vertical aerial photographs taken in 2000). The method used was based on classical interpretation of vertical aerial photographs (pre Mitch and a post Mitch event), detailed field work, inquiries among the population and analysis of the main pattern of storms occurring in the area. All these data allowed the reconstruction of different extensions and water levels corresponding to events of different frequency and magnitude, and the qualitative association of them to three hazard levels by means of energy and frequency. The use of orthophotographs of 1:5,000 proved to be very useful both for the development of the work and for the presentation of the final map, because they are very easily understandable for people not trained in the interpretation of topographic maps.  相似文献   

GPS/GNSS current bibliography     

Tomás Soler 《GPS Solutions》2008,12(1):71-76

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Heat flow variation with depth in Poland: evidence from equilibrium temperature logs in 2.9-km-deep well Torun-1     

Jacek?Majorowicz  Jan??afanda  Torun- Working Group 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2008,97(2):307-315

High-precision temperature measurements were carried out up to a depth of 2,930 m in the 5.5-km-deep well Torun-1, 26 years after completion of drilling. The temperature log provides equilibrium thermal state information for the Polish Lowland at the western margin of the Precambrian craton. Geothermal gradient calculated from the equilibrium temperature log, together with estimates of thermal conductivity from ‘net rock’ geophysical well logging analysis and available core measurements, yields heat flow in the range 50–60 mW/m² below 2-km depth. Heat flow of 50 mW/m² plus ∼10 mW/m² generated within thick sediments and highly metamorphosed sedimentary wedge is typical for the western margin of the Precambrian East European craton. Heat-flow variations with depth can be explained by a model of surface-temperature changes >10°C (glaciation to Holocene). Torun-1 Working Group: Marta Wróblewska, Jacek Majorowicz, Jan Szewczyk, Jan Šafanda, Vladimír Cermák  相似文献   

A Dynamic Model to Simulate Water Level and Salinity in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon     

Biel Obrador  Enrique Moreno-Ostos  Joan Lluís Pretus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2008,31(6):1117-1129

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Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability     

Jiangfeng?WeiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Paul?A.?Dirmeyer  Zong-Liang?Yang  Haishan?Chen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):793-800

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.  相似文献   

Use of regionalisation approach to develop fire frequency curves for Victoria,Australia     

Anirban?KhastagirEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Niranjali?Jayasuriya  Muhammed?A.?Bhuyian 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):849-858

It is important to perform fire frequency analysis to obtain fire frequency curves (FFC) based on fire intensity at different parts of Victoria. In this paper fire frequency curves (FFCs) were derived based on forest fire danger index (FFDI). FFDI is a measure related to fire initiation, spreading speed and containment difficulty. The mean temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and areal extent of open water (LC2) during summer months (Dec–Feb) were identified as the most important parameters for assessing the risk of occurrence of bushfire. Based on these parameters, Andrews’ curve equation was applied to 40 selected meteorological stations to identify homogenous stations to form unique clusters. A methodology using peak FFDI from cluster averaged FFDIs was developed by applying Log Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to generate FFCs. A total of nine homogeneous clusters across Victoria were identified, and subsequently their FFC’s were developed in order to estimate the regionalised fire occurrence characteristics.  相似文献   

Extreme maximum temperature events and their relationships with large-scale modes: potential hazard on the Iberian Peninsula     

Merino  Andrés  Martín  M. L.  Fernández-González  S.  Sánchez  J. L.  Valero  F. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):531-550

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The aim of this paper is to analyze spatiotemporal distribution of maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) by using various extreme maximum...  相似文献   

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties     

Ond?ej?LhotkaEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Jan?Kysely  Ale??Farda 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1043-1054

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970–1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020–2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070–2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.  相似文献   

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960–2013 in Hunan Province,central south China     

Ajiao?Chen  Xinguang?HeEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Huade?Guan  Yi?Cai 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):71-88

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960–2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960–1986 and 1987–2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970–1980 and after 1992.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variations of aridity indices in Iraq   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nermin??arlakEmail author  Omar?M.?A.?Mahmood Agha 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):89-101

In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.  相似文献