Challenges to the development of carbon markets in China     

Alex Y. Lo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(1):109-124

China has introduced several pilot emission trading schemes to build the basis for a national scheme. The potential scale of this initiative raises prospects for a regional carbon trading network as a way to further engage other major Asian economies. However, the Chinese carbon markets rest upon a unique political-economic context and institutional environment that are likely to limit their development and viability. This article offers an overview of such structural economic and political constraints. Four main challenges are identified, namely, inadequate domestic demand, limited financial involvement, incomplete regulatory infrastructure, and excessive government intervention. The first two challenges concern economic dimensions and may be partially addressed by the incentives created by the newly introduced emission trading schemes. The other two are more deeply entrenched in the dominant political system and governing practice. They require fundamental changes to the ways in which the state and the market interact. The success of China's carbon market reform depends crucially on the ability of the ongoing efforts to transform the distorted state–market relationship.

Policy relevance

The burgeoning carbon markets offer opportunities for emissions mitigation at lower costs and enable circulation of a new form of capital, i.e. carbon credits, across borders. China accounts for a gigantic share of global GHG emissions and has the potential to significantly scale up these opportunities. There are clear implications for market developers and participants worldwide, including climate policy makers who attempt to link their emission trading schemes to other schemes, firms who seek to take advantage of the inexpensive carbon offsets generated in developing countries, international financial institutions who endeavour to establish their business in an emerging major carbon market, etc. This article can inform their decisions by identifying key issues that may undermine their ability to achieve these goals. Policy makers and stakeholders will benefit from this analysis, which shows how the Chinese carbon markets operate in ways that may be different from their experience elsewhere.  相似文献   

A model for assessing iceberg hazard     

Bigg  Grant R.  Cropper  T. E.  O’Neill  Clare K.  Arnold  Alex K.  Fleming  A. H.  Marsh  R.  Ivchenko  V.  Fournier  Nicolas  Osborne  Mike  Stephens  Robin 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):1113-1136

Natural Hazards - With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to...  相似文献   

Road distance and travel time for an improved house price Kriging predictor     

Henry Crosby  Theo Damoulas  Alex Caton  Paul Davis  João Porto de Albuquerque  Stephen A. Jarvis 《地球空间信息科学学报》2018,21(3):185-194

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Integrated cave drip monitoring for epikarst recharge estimation in a dry Mediterranean area,Sif Cave,Israel     

Nathan A. Sheffer  Moty Cohen  Efrat Morin  Tamir Grodek  Alex Gimburg  Einat Magal  Haim Gvirtzman  Manuela Nied  Daniel Isele  Amos Frumkin 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2837-2845

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. The objective of this study was to evaluate water percolation through epikarst by monitoring water flow into a cave and conducting artificial irrigation and tracer experiments, at Sif Cave in Wadi Sussi, Israel from 2005 through 2007. The research is based on continuous high‐resolution direct measurements of both rainfall and water percolation in the cave chamber collected by three large PVC sheets which integrate drips from three different areas (17, 46, and 52 m²). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas. The combined measured rainfall and cave data enables estimation of recharge into the epikarst and to better understand the relationship of rainfall‐recharge. Three distinct types of flow regimes were identified: (1) ‘Quick flow’ through preferential flow paths (large fractures and conduits); (2) ‘Intermediate flow’ through a secondary crack system; and (3) ‘Slow flow’ through the matrix. A threshold of ～100 mm of rain at the beginning of the rainy season is required to increase soil water content allowing later rainfall events to percolate deeper through the soil and to initiate dripping in the cave. During winter, as the soil water content rises, the lag time between a rain event and cave drip response decreases. Annual recharge (140–160 mm in different areas in the cave) measured represents 30–35% of annual rainfall (460 mm). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A flexible nonlinear modelling framework for nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis in hydroclimatology     

Alex J. Cannon 《水文研究》2010,24(6):673-685

Parameters in a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time or is dependent on time, then the GEV‐CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Owing to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV‐CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. Copyright © 2009 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Proportional Effect   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

J. G. Manchuk  O. Leuangthong  C. V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(7):799-816

Many regionalized variables encountered in geostatistical application show a proportional effect, that is, greater variability in high valued areas. The proportional effect is a consequence of the univariate distribution of the variable being considered. This presents several challenges including inference of variograms and conditional distributions. The correlogram and relative variogram were devised to mitigate challenges with variography. Other techniques such as normalization, direct simulation, and indicators provide a means to characterize conditional distributions. A review of these tools is given along with several examples to provide an explanation of the proportional effect.  相似文献   

Upscaling facies models to preserve connectivity of designated facies     

Erick R. Burns  Larry R. Bentley  Rene Therrien  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(6):1357-1373

An upscaling algorithm has been developed that generates an irregular coarse grid that preserves flow connectivity by applying a rule-based upscaling algorithm to a fine-scale facies distribution. The algorithm is demonstrated using stochastically generated paleo-fluvial facies distributions. First, an irregular grid honoring the channel facies is created, followed by computation of effective anisotropic parameters for all coarse-grid cells. For the apparent layer-cake geometry of overbank deposits seen in outcrop, two local upscaling methods are compared: (1) the layered system approximation and (2) the mode. To assess upscaling performance, flow simulations for the original and upscaled grids are compared. The horizontal layered approximation (arithmetic mean) performs poorly, over-predicting lateral connectivity where even infrequent disconnection becomes important. Performance of the mode as an upscaling algorithm depends on the probability that a coarse-grid cell will be dominated by a single facies, and it performs surprisingly well because the upscaled grid-generation algorithm honors the channels, informing the upscaling process. Lastly, the irregular coarse grid was compared to a uniform coarse grid, showing superior performance with the irregular grid. The reduction in grid size achieved by irregular-grid generation will be a function of the geometrical complexity of the geologic objects to be honored.  相似文献   

Comparative petrology of silicates in the Udei Station (IAB) and Miles (IIE) iron meteorites: Implications for the origin of silicate-bearing irons     

Alex Ruzicka  Melinda Hutson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(1):394-433

The textures and mineral chemistries of silicate inclusions in the Udei Station (IAB) and Miles (fractionated IIE) iron meteorites were studied using optical and electron microscopy, SEM, EMPA, and LA-ICP-MS techniques to better understand the origin of silicate-bearing irons. Inclusions in Udei Station include near-chondritic, basaltic/gabbroic, feldspathic orthopyroxenitic, and harzburgitic lithologies. In Miles, most inclusions can be described as feldspathic pyroxenite or pyroxene-enriched basalt/gabbro. The trace-element compositions of both orthopyroxene and plagioclase grains are similar in different lithologies from Udei Station; whereas in different inclusions from Miles, the compositions of orthopyroxene grains are similar, while those of clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and especially Cl-apatite are variable. Orthopyroxene in Miles tends to be enriched in REE compared to that in Udei Station, but the reverse is true for plagioclase and clinopyroxene.The data can be explained by models involving partial melting of chondritic protoliths, silicate melt migration, and redox reactions between silicate and metal components to form phosphate. The extent of heating, melt migration, and phosphate formation were all greater in Miles. Silicates in Miles were formed from liquids produced by ∼30% partial melting of a chondritic precursor brought to a peak temperature of ∼1250 °C. This silicate melt crystallized in two stages. During Stage 1, crystallizing minerals (orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, chromite, and olivine) were largely in equilibrium with an intercumulus melt that was evolving by igneous fractionation during slow cooling, with a residence time of ∼20 ka at ∼1150 °C. During Stage 2, following probable re-melting of feldspathic materials, and after the silicate “mush” was mixed with molten metal, plagioclase and phosphate fractionally crystallized together during more rapid cooling down to the solidus. In Udei Station, despite a lower peak temperature (<1180 °C) and degree of silicate partial melting (∼3-10%), silicate melt was able to efficiently separate from silicate solid to produce melt residues (harzburgite) and liquids or cumulates (basalt/gabbro, feldspathic orthopyroxenite) prior to final metal emplacement. Olivine was generally out of equilibrium with other minerals, but orthopyroxene and plagioclase largely equilibrated under magmatic conditions, and clinopyroxene in basalt/gabbro crystallized from a more evolved silicate melt.We suggest that a model involving major collisional disruption and mixing of partly molten, endogenically heated planetesimals can best explain the data for IAB and fractionated IIE silicate-bearing irons. The extent of endogenic heating was different (less for the IABs), and the amount of parent body disruption was different (scrambling with collisional unroofing for the IAB/IIICD/winonaite body, more complete destruction for the fractionated IIE body), but both bodies were partly molten and incompletely differentiated at the time of impact. We suggest that the post-impact secondary body for IAB/IIICD/winonaite meteorites was mineralogically zoned with Ni-poor metal in the center, and that the secondary body for fractionated IIE meteorites was a relatively small melt-rich body that had separated from olivine during collisional break-up.  相似文献   

Controls on the D/H ratios of plant leaf waxes in an arid ecosystem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sarah J. Feakins  Alex L. Sessions 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(7):2128-122

The extent to which leaf water D-enrichment (transpiration) and soil water D-enrichment (evaporation) affect the D/H ratio of plant leaf waxes remains a contentious issue, with important implications for paleohydrologic reconstructions. In this study we measure δD values of precipitation (δD_p), groundwater (δD_gw), plant xylem water (δD_xw) and leaf water (δD_lw) to understand their impact on the δD values of plant leaf wax n-alkanes (δD_wax) in an arid ecosystem. Our survey includes multiple species at four sites across an aridity gradient (80-30% relative humidity) in southern California.We find that many species take up groundwater or precipitation without significant fractionation. D-enriched soil water is a minor source even in species known to perform and utilize waters from hydraulic lift, such as Larrea tridentata (+10‰). Measurements of leaf water isotopic composition demonstrate that transpiration is an important mechanism for D-enrichment of leaf waters (+74 ± 20‰, 1σ), resulting in the smallest net fractionation yet reported between source water and leaf waxes (L. tridentata −41‰; multi-species mean value is −94 ± 21‰, 1σ). We find little change in leaf water D-enrichment or net fractionation across the climatic gradient sampled by our study, suggesting that a net fractionation of ca. −90‰ may be appropriate for paleohydrologic reconstructions in semi-arid to arid environments. Large interspecies offsets in net fractionations (1σ = 21‰) are potentially troublesome, given the observed floristic diversity and the likelihood of species assemblage changes with climate shifts.  相似文献   

Stones from Mohave County,Arizona: Multiple falls in the “Franconia strewn field”     

Melinda Hutson  Alex Ruzicka  A. J. Timothy Jull  James E. Smaller  Ryan Brown 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(3):365-389

One of the most productive and well‐sampled dense collection areas for meteorites on Earth is the “Franconia strewn field” in Mohave County, Arizona, which since 2002 has yielded hundreds of meteorites in an ellipsoidal area approximately 5 × 16 km across. Based on petrographic, mineral‐chemical, and terrestrial age data, we conclude that among 14 meteorites examined, there are at least 6 and possibly 8 distinct meteorites represented, which fell over a period of approximately 0–20 kyr ago. These include equilibrated H‐chondrites such as Franconia (H5) and Buck Mountains (BM) 001 (H6); H3–6 breccias such as Buck Mountains Wash and BM 004; and L6 chondrites such as BM 002 and BM 003 (which may be paired), Palo Verde Mine, and BM 005. To confidently pair such meteorites often requires thorough petrographic examination, mineral‐chemical analyses, and terrestrial ages. We estimate that 50 ± 10% of the larger specimens in this area are paired, yielding a relatively high value of approximately 2.3–2.9 distinct meteorites km^?2. The meteorite flux estimated for Franconia area is higher than the flux inferred from contemporary fireball data for larger masses. We suggest that one large H3–6 meteoroid fell in the area, most likely that of Buck Mountains Wash approximately 4 kyr ago, which produced an elliptical strewn field with masses generally increasing toward one end, and which raised the meteorite productivity in the recovery area.  相似文献