Measuring earthquake risk concentration for hazard mitigation     

Richard Bernknopf  Paul Amos 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2163-2192

One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations.  相似文献   

Environment aspects of manganese nodule mining     

Anthony F. Amos  Oswald A. Roels 《Marine Policy》1977,1(2):156-163

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Late Pleistocene and early Holocene ecological response of Lake El Trébol (Patagonia, Argentina) to environmental changes     

M.M. Massaferro  J. Massaferro  G. Roman Ross  A.J. Amos  A. Lami 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1999,22(2):137-148

Stratigraphy of Lake El Trébol (41°S 71°W, 758 m a.s.l.) described from an 11 m long sediment core provided a continuous record of patecenvironmental changes occurred during the last 14,000 years in southern South America east of the Andes. Located in an ecotonal area within a strong humidity gradient, this lake offers a unique opportunity to develop paleolimnological studies. Using a geochemical approach that includes elemental analysis, bulk organic matter, major nutrients and pigments combined with chironomids and pollen analysis, three zones were identified in the sedimentary record of this take. The oldest one (between 680 and 1,100 cm) corresponds to the late Glacial period. During that time, clayish laminated sediments were formed in a proglacial environment. Low organic matter, biogenic silica and nitrogen contents and the absence of pigments, pollen and chironomids characterise this period. At the end of this period, ca. 14,000 yr BP, a sharp increase in phosphorus concentrations predates major changes in limnological parameters. The transition zone (between 560 and 680 cm) is related to major changes in the drainage system that started soon after ca. 14,000 yr BP and continued to ca. 10,500 yr BP. The chemical composition of the sediments was affected by an increase in physical weathering mechanisms almost coincident with the increase in the regional volcanic activity that produced suspended volcanic detritus. The increase of mainly coarser detritical components may indicate a reorganisation of the fluvial system by that time. Simultaneously, an increase in the productivity of the lake accompanied by a gradual replacement of open vegetation with Nothofagus, Poaceae and Ericaceae, by Nothofagusforest, was observed. In the last zone (between 0 and 560 cm) the productivity of Lake El Trébol achieves maximum values. The trends in geochemical and biological indicators observed at Lake El Trébol can be up to some extent, correlated to those registered in Lake Mascardi. The results support earlier paleoctimatic scenarios from southern South America.  相似文献   

Stellar structure and mass loss on the upper asymptotic giant branch     

Noam Soker  Amos Harpaz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,310(4):1158-1164

We examine the envelope properties of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars as they evolve on the upper AGB and during the early post-AGB phase. Because of the high mass-loss rate, the envelope mass decreases by more than an order of magnitude. This makes the density profile below the photosphere much shallower, and the entropy profile much steeper. We discuss the possible role of these changes in the profiles in the onset of the high mass-loss rate (superwind) and the large deviation from spherical mass loss at the termination of the AGB. We concentrate on the idea that the shallower density profile and steeper entropy profile allow the formation of cool magnetic spots, above which dust forms much more easily.  相似文献   

Morphometry and distribution of isolated caves as a guide for phreatic and confined paleohydrological conditions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amos Frumkin  Itay Fischhendler 《Geomorphology》2005,67(3-4):457-471

Isolated caves are a special cave type common in most karst terrains, formed by prolonged slow water flow where aggressivity is locally boosted. The morphometry and distribution of isolated caves are used here to reconstruct the paleohydrology of a karstic mountain range. Within a homogenous karstic rock sequence, two main types of isolated caves are distinguished, and each is associated with a special hydrogeologic setting: maze caves form by rising water in the confined zone of the aquifer, under the Mt. Scopus Group (Israel) confinement, while chamber caves are formed in phreatic conditions, apparently by lateral flow mixing with a vadose input from above.  相似文献   

Influence of Zostera marina canopies on unidirectional flow,hydraulic roughness and sediment movement     

A. Lefebvre  C.E.L. ThompsonC.L. Amos 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

Seagrasses develop extensive or patchy underwater meadows in coastal areas around the world, forming complex, highly productive ecosystems. Seagrass canopies exert strong effects on water flow inside and around them, thereby affecting flow structure, sediment transport and benthic ecology. The influence of Zostera marina canopies on flow velocity, turbulence, hydraulic roughness and sediment movement was evaluated through laboratory experiments in 2 flumes and using live Z. marina and a mobile sand bed. Profiles of instantaneous velocities were measured and sediment movement was identified upstream, within and downstream of patches of different sizes and shoot density and at different free-stream velocities. Flow structure was characterised by time-averaged velocity, turbulence intensity and Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE). When velocity data were available above the canopy, they were fitted to the Law of the Wall and shear velocities and roughness lengths were calculated. When a seagrass canopy was present, three layers were distinguishable in the water column: (1) within canopy represented by low velocities and high turbulence; (2) transition zone around the height of the canopy, where velocities increased, turbulence decreased and TKE was high; and (3) above canopy where velocities were equal or higher than free-stream velocities and turbulence and TKE were lower than below. Shoot density and patch-width influenced this partitioning of the flow when the canopy was long enough (based on flume experiments, at least more than 1 m-long). The enhanced TKE observed at the canopy/water interface suggests that large-scale turbulence is generated at the canopy surface. These oscillations, likely to be related to the canopy undulations, are then broken down within the canopy and high-frequency turbulence takes place near the bed. This turbulence ‘cascade’ through the canopy may have an important impact on biogeochemical processes. The velocity above the canopy generally followed a logarithmic profile. Roughness lengths were higher above the canopy than over bare sand and increased with increasing distance from the leading edge of the canopy; however, they were still small (<1 cm) compared to other studies in the literature. Within and downstream of the canopy, sediment movement was observed at velocities below the threshold of motion. It was likely caused by the increased turbulence at those positions. This has large implications for sediment transport in coastal zones where seagrass beds develop.  相似文献   

The erosion rates of cohesive sediments in Venice lagoon,Italy     

Carl L. Amos  G. Umgiesser  C. Ferrarin  C.E.L. Thompson  R.J.S. Whitehouse  T.F. Sutherland  A. Bergamasco 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

The stability of cohesive sediments from Venice lagoon has been measured in situ using the benthic flume Sea Carousel. Twenty four stations were occupied during summertime, and a sub-set of 13 stations was re-occupied during the following winter. Erosion thresholds and first-order erosion rates were estimated and showed a distinct difference between inter-tidal and sub-tidal stations. The higher values for inter-tidal stations are the result of exposure that influences consolidation, density, and organic adhesion. The thresholds for each state of sediment motion are well established. However, the rate of erosion once the erosion threshold has been exceeded has been poorly treated. This is because normally a time-series of sediment concentration (C) and bed shear stress (τ₀(t)) is used to define threshold stress or cohesion (τ_crit,z) and erosion rate (E). Whilst solution of the onset of erosion, τ_crit,0, is often reported, the evaluation of the erosion threshold variation through the process of erosion (eroded depth) is usually omitted or not estimated. This usually leads to assumptions on the strength profile of the bed which invariably has no credibility within the topmost mm of the bed where most erosion takes place. It is possible to extract this information from a time-series through the addition of a step in data processing. This paper describes how this is done, and the impact of this on the accuracy of estimates of the excess stress (τ₀(t)–τ_crit,z) on E.  相似文献   

Storm-generated,hummocky stratification on the outer-Scotian Shelf     

Carl L. Amos  M. Z. Li  K. -S. Choung 《Geo-Marine Letters》1996,16(2):85-94

Hummocky megaripples occur on Sable Island Bank, Scotian Shelf. Submersible observations show that the megaripples form during winter storms and are subsequently obliterated through bioturbation and fair-weather reworking. The megaripples of this study were underlain by a storm bed composed of: (A) a basal scoured and infilled gravel lag facies; (B) low-angle tangential crossbedding in gravel to coarse sand; (C) anisotropic hummocky stratification in medium sand; and (D) wave ripple cross-lamination in medium/fine sand. This sequence forms a tempestite bed created by a winter storm during our sampling program. Numerical simulation of bed conditions during the storm suggests that the hummocky megaripples and hummocky stratification formed together during late stages of storm decay from conditions of sheet flow. Near-bed wave motion during deposition exceeded steady currents by an order of magnitude.  相似文献   

Low-mass red giants and masses of NPNs     

Amos Harpaz  Giora Shaviv 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1992,189(1):11-21

The evolutionary track of low-mass red giant stars (0.7–0.9M ) is computed with the aim to demonstrate the conditions under which low-mass white dwarfs (WDs) can form through the evolution of single stars. Also, the influence of the mixing length to the scale height ratio on the radius of the star is calculated and the coupling between the mixing-length and the mass-loss rate parameters is investigated. Our conclusions are that the uncertainties in mass-loss and mixing-length to scale-height ratio leave enough parameter space to allow the formation of low-mass WD via single star evolution. We also conclude that the gap between proto-WD stars without any nebula and stars with well-defined nebulae is bridged by stars which have a dilute gas cloud around them which cannot be observed as a nebula.  相似文献   

A model of sand transport in Treporti channel: northern Venice lagoon     

Georg Umgiesser  Francesca De Pascalis  Christian Ferrarin  Carl L. Amos 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):339-351

The origin of the sands in the Venice lagoon has been the subject of an extensive field survey in parallel with numerical modelling. Four transects along Treporti and Burano canals were conducted from which 33 bottom sediment samples were collected. These samples were analysed for grain size and sorting to examine any trends in the granulometry of these sediments that might shed light on transport paths. The modelling study consists of three parts: the sediment transport model sedtrans96 was used with a finite-element hydrodynamic model (Shyfem) and an empirical wave model (US Army Corps of Engineering) to simulate sand transport in the Treporti canal. A type of link box model was created where finite elements of the hydrodynamic model have been combined to macro-boxes on which the water and sediment flux over the sections, and a mass balance has been computed. Several grain size classes were simulated; the distributions before and after the simulation were examined. Idealised wind and tidal values were initially used to force 12 h simulations to test the sediment transport sensitivity. Finally, a full-year simulation (1987) has been carried out using measured tidal and wind data. Only a part of Venice lagoon was covered by the simulation: a major channel (Treporti) running from Lido inlet towards the northern lagoon. The total sand transport through all of the sections was computed for 1 year. Sediment mass balance was determined, and the resulting trends of erosion and deposition were computed. There were no trends in the median grain diameter and sorting of bottom samples from the Treporti canal; all sands were fine (120 μm, one outlier of 300 μm was removed). The absence of a trend in grain size suggests that there is no significant import of sand to the lagoon through the Lido inlet. The results from the simulations seem therefore to confirm the hypothesis of reworking of sand within the lagoon. The computed erosion is some centimeters per year diagnostic of channel scouring and enlargement with time. The Treporti canal is subject to strong current velocities of around 1 m/s, which hold fine sand in suspension and thus prevent sedimentation.  相似文献