A Methodology for Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Projections   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mort D. Webster  Andrei P. Sokolov 《Climatic change》2000,46(4):417-446

Possible climate change caused by an increase ingreenhouse gas concentrations, despite having been asubject of intensive study in recent years, is stillvery uncertain. Uncertainties in projections ofdifferent climate variables are usually described onlyby the ranges of possible values. For assessing thepossible impact of climate change, it would be moreuseful to have probability distributions for thesevariables. Obtaining such distributions is usuallyvery computationally expensive and requires knowledgeof probability distributions for characteristics ofthe climate system that affect climate projections. A fewstudies of this kind have been carried out with energybalance/upwelling diffusion models. Here wedemonstrate a methodology for performing a similarstudy with a 2 dimensional (zonally averaged) climatemodel that reproduces the behavior of coupledatmosphere/ocean general circulation models morerealistically than energy balance models. Thismethodology involves application of the DeterministicEquivalent Modeling Method to derive functionalapproximations of the model's probabilistic response.Monte Carlo analysis is then performed on theapproximations. An application of the methodology isdemonstrated by deriving the uncertainty in surfaceair temperature change and sea level rise due tothermal expansion of the ocean that result fromuncertainties in climate sensitivity and the rate ofheat uptake by the deep ocean for a prescribedincrease in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Wealso demonstrate propagation of correlateduncertainties through different models, by presentingresults that include uncertainty in projected carbonemissions.  相似文献   

Undersampling in action and at scale: application to the COVID-19 pandemic     

Langousis  Andreas  Carsteanu  Alin Andrei 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(8):1281-1283

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - It is the purpose of this short communication to analyze the possible caveats in the statistical interpretation of collected data,...  相似文献   

Superlarge-scale structure in the Durham/UKST Galaxy Redshift Survey     

Andrei G. Doroshkevich  Richard Fong  Henry J. McCracken  rew Ratcliffe  Tom Shanks  Victor I. Turchaninov 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,315(4):767-777

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Assessment of time-series of troposphere zenith delays derived from the Global Data Assimilation System numerical weather model     

Constantin-Octavian Andrei  Ruizhi Chen 《GPS Solutions》2009,13(2):109-117

Troposphere zenith path delays derived from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) numerical weather model (NWM) are compared with those of the International GNSS Service (IGS) solutions over a 1.5-year period at 18 globally distributed IGS stations. Meteorological parameters can be interpolated from the NWM model at any location and at any time after December 2004. The meteorological parameters extracted from the NWM model agree with in situ direct measurements at some IGS stations within 1 mbar for pressure, 3° for temperature and 13% for relative humidity. The hydrostatic and wet components of the zenith path delay (ZPD) are computed using the meteorological parameters extracted from the NWM model. The total ZPDs derived from the GDAS NWM agree with the IGS ZPD solutions at 3.0 cm RMS level with biases of up to 4.5 cm, which can be attributed to the wet ZPDs estimates from the NWM model, considering the less accurate interpolated relative humidity parameter. Based on this study, it is suggested that the availability and the precision of the GDAS NWM ZPD should be sufficient for nearly all GPS navigation solutions.

Constantin-Octavian AndreiEmail:

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Analytical expressions for the borehole seismic signatures excited by an explosive source buried in an elastic half‐space          下载免费PDF全文

Andrei M. Ionov 《Geophysical Prospecting》2018,66(Z1):161-174

Borehole guided waves that are excited by explosive sources outside of the borehole are important for interpreting borehole seismic surveys and for rock property inversion workflows. Borehole seismograms are typically modelled using numerical methods of wave propagation. In order to benchmark such numerical algorithms and partially to interpret the results of modelling, an analytical methodology is presented here to compute synthetic seismograms. The specific setup is a wavefield emanating from a monopole point source embedded within a homogeneous elastic medium that interacts with a fluid‐filled borehole and a free surface. The methodology assumes that the wavelength of the seismic signal is much larger than the borehole radius. In this paper, it is supposed that there is no poroelastic coupling between the formation and the borehole. The total wavefield solution consists of P, PP, and PS body waves; the surface Rayleigh wave; and the low‐frequency guided Stoneley wave (often referred as the tube wave) within the borehole. In its turn, the tube wave consists of the partial responses generated by the incident P‐wave and the reflected PP and PS body waves at the borehole mouth and by the Rayleigh wave, as well as the Stoneley wave eigenmode. The Mach tube wave, which is a conic tube wave, additionally appears in the Mach cone in a slow formation with the tube‐wave velocity greater than the shear one. The conditions of appearance of the Mach wave in a slow formation are formulated. It is shown that the amplitude of the Mach tube wave strongly depends on Poisson's ratio of the slow surrounding formation. The amplitude of the Mach tube wave exponentially decreases when the source depth grows for weakly compressible elastic media with Poisson's ratio close to 0.5 (i.e., saturated clays and saturated clay soils). Asymptotic expressions are also provided to compute the wavefield amplitudes for different combinations of source depth and source‐well offset. These expressions allow an approximate solution of the wavefield to be computed much faster (within several seconds) than directly computing the implicit integrals arising from the analytical formulation.  相似文献   

Risk-targeted maps for Romania     

Radu Vacareanu  Florin Pavel  Ionut Craciun  Veronica Coliba  Cristian Arion  Alexandru Aldea  Cristian Neagu 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(2):407-417

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.  相似文献   

Assessment of runoff,water and sediment quality in the Selenga River basin aided by a web-based geoservice     

Daniel Karthe  Sergey Chalov  Vsevolod Moreido  Margarita Pashkina  Anna Romanchenko  Gunsmaa Batbayar  Andrei Kalugin  Katja Westphal  Marcus Malsy  Martina Flörke 《Water Resources》2017,44(3):399-416

The Selenga River is the main artery feeding Lake Baikal. It has a catchment of ~450000 km² in the boundary region between Northern Mongolia and Southern Siberia. Climate, land use and dynamic socioeconomic changes go along with rising water abstractions and contaminant loads originating from mining sites and urban wastewater. In the future, these pressures might have negative impacts on the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River Delta, which is an important wetland region in itself and forms the last geobiochemical barrier before the Selenga drains into Lake Baikal. The following study aims to assess current trends in hydrology and water quality in the Selenga-Baikal basin, identify their drivers and to set up models (WaterGAP3 framework and ECOMAG) for the prediction of future changes. Of particular relevance for hydrological and water quality changes in the recent past were climate and land use trends as well as contaminant influx from mining areas and urban settlements. In the near future, additional hydrological modifications due to the construction of dams and abstractions/water diversions from the Selenga’s Mongolian tributaries could lead to additional alterations.  相似文献   

Perturbations in the Nodal Period of Artificial Satellites Caused by the Terrestrial Infrared Radiation Pressure     

V. Mioc  E. Radu 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1982,303(5):313-315

Considering the terrestrial infrared radiaton pressure as a disturbing factor, its influence on the nodal period of an artificial satellite moving in a quasi-circular orbit is estimated.  相似文献   

Types of river channel patterns and their natural controls     

Andrei M. Alabyan  Roman S. Chalov 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1998,23(5):467-474

River channel patterns are thought to form a morphological continuum. This continuum is two-dimensional, defined by plan features of which there are three (straight, meandering, branching), and structural levels of fluvial relief of which there are also three (floodplain, flood channel, low-water channel). Combinations of these three categories define the diversity of patterns. One of the most important factors in channel development is stream power, defined by water discharge and river slope. The greater the stream power, the stronger the branching tendency, but threshold values of stream power are different for the three different hierarchical levels of channel relief. The critical stream power values and hydrological regime together define the channel pattern, and analysis of the pattern type can be undertaken using effective discharge curves. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Late Pleistocene megafauna of the Chulym River basin,southeastern West Siberian Plain: chronology and stable isotope composition     

Yaroslav V. Kuzmin  Andrei V. Shpansky 《第四纪科学杂志》2023,38(1):2-7

New data were obtained for the Chulym River basin in the southeastern part of the West Siberian Plain, one of the understudied parts of Siberia in terms of age and composition of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes for Late Pleistocene megafauna. The ¹⁴C dates from the Sergeevo outcrop, the most complete section of Late Quaternary deposits in the region, are mostly greater than ~30 550 bp. Other localities yielded ¹⁴C values in the range from >44 500 to ~19 300 bp. The finite date of ~42 270 bp for the Khozarian steppe elephant (Mammuthus trogontherii chosaricus) from Asino is intriguing because previously it was not detected in the Late Pleistocene of Siberia after the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e), ~115 000–130 000 years ago. Stable isotope data show both similarities and differences compared to the pre-Last Glacial Maximum megafaunal species in other parts of Siberia.  相似文献