Trends and climate evolution: Statistical approach for very high temperatures in France   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sylvie Parey  Farida Malek  Carine Laurent  Didier Dacunha-Castelle 《Climatic change》2007,81(3-4):331-352

The existence of an increasing trend in average temperatures during the last 50 years is widely acknowledged. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence of the variability of extremes, and rapid strides are made in studies of these events. Indeed, by extending the results of the “extreme value theory” (EVT) to the non-stationary case, analyses can examine the presence of trends in extreme values of stochastic processes. Definition of extreme events, their statistical significance as well as their interpretations have to be handled with great care when used for environmental concerns and public safety. Thus, we will discuss the validity of the hypothesis allowing the use of mathematical theories for these problems. To answer safety requirements, respect installation norms and reduce public risk, return levels are a major operational goal, obtained with the EVT. In this paper, we give quantitative results for observations of high temperatures over the 1950–2003 period in 47 stations in France. We examined the validity of the non-stationary EVT and introduced the notion of return levels (RL) in a time-varying context. Our analysis puts particular accent on the difference between methods used to describe extremes, to perform advanced fits and tests (climatic science), and those estimating the probability of rare future events (security problems in an evolving climate). After enouncing the method used for trend identification of extremes in term of easily interpretable parameters of distribution laws, we apply the procedure to long series of temperature measurements and check the influence of data length on trend estimation. We also address the problem of choosing the part of observations allowing appropriate extrapolation. In our analysis, we determined the influence of the 2003 heat wave on trend and return-level estimation comparing it to the RL in a stationary context. The application of the procedure to 47 stations spread over France is a first step for a refined spatial analysis. Working on the behavior of distribution parameters while assessing trend identification is a primary tool in order to classify climatic change with respect to the location of the station and open a systematic work using the same methodology for other variables and multivariate studies.  相似文献   

Standard candles from the Gaia perspective     

Laurent Eyer  Lovro Palaversa  Nami Mowlavi  Pierre Dubath  Richard I. Anderson  Dafydd W. Evans  Thomas Lebzelter  Vincenzo Ripepi  Laszlo Szabados  Silvio Leccia 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,341(1):207-214

The ESA Gaia mission will bring a new era to the domain of standard candles. Progresses in this domain will be achieved thanks to unprecedented astrometric precision, whole-sky coverage and the combination of photometric, spectrophotometric and spectroscopic measurements. The fundamental outcome of the mission will be the Gaia catalogue produced by the Gaia Data Analysis and Processing Consortium (DPAC), which will contain a variable source classification and specific properties for stars of specific variability types. We review what will be produced for Cepheids, RR Lyrae, Long Period Variable stars and eclipsing binaries.  相似文献   

Structure,composition, and location of organic matter in the enstatite chondrite Sahara 97096 (EH3)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laurette PIANI  François ROBERT  Olivier BEYSSAC  Laurent BINET  Michèle BOUROT‐DENISE  Sylvie DERENNE  Corentin LE GUILLOU  Yves MARROCCHI  Smail MOSTEFAOUI  Jean‐Noël ROUZAUD  Aurélien THOMEN 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(1):8-29

Abstract– The insoluble organic matter (IOM) of an unequilibrated enstatite chondrite Sahara (SAH) 97096 has been investigated using a battery of analytical techniques. As the enstatite chondrites are thought to have formed in a reduced environment at higher temperatures than carbonaceous chondrites, they constitute an interesting comparative material to test the heterogeneities of the IOM in the solar system and to constrain the processes that could affect IOM during solar system evolution. The SAH 97096 IOM is found in situ: as submicrometer grains in the network of fine‐grained matrix occurring mostly around chondrules and as inclusions in metallic nodules, where the carbonaceous matter appears to be more graphitized. IOM in these two settings has very similar δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C; this supports the idea that graphitized inclusions in metal could be formed by metal catalytic graphitization of matrix IOM. A detailed comparison between the IOM extracted from a fresh part and a terrestrially weathered part of SAH 97096 shows the similarity between both IOM samples in spite of the high degree of mineral alteration in the latter. The isolated IOM exhibits a heterogeneous polyaromatic macromolecular structure, sometimes highly graphitized, without any detectable free radicals and deuterium‐heterogeneity and having mean H‐ and N‐isotopic compositions in the range of values observed for carbonaceous chondrites. It contains some submicrometer‐sized areas highly enriched in ¹⁵N (δ¹⁵N up to 1600‰). These observations reinforce the idea that the IOM found in carbonaceous chondrites is a common component widespread in the solar system. Most of the features of SAH 97096 IOM could be explained by the thermal modification of this main component.  相似文献   

Finite Difference Implicit Structural Modeling of Geological Structures     

Irakarama  Modeste  Laurent  Gautier  Renaudeau  Julien  Caumon  Guillaume 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(5):785-808

We introduce a new method for implicit structural modeling. The main developments in this paper are the new regularization operators we propose by extending inherent properties of the classic one-dimensional discrete second derivative operator to higher dimensions. The proposed regularization operators discretize naturally on the Cartesian grid using finite differences, owing to the highly symmetric nature of the Cartesian grid. Furthermore, the proposed regularization operators do not require any special treatment on boundary nodes, and their generalization to higher dimensions is straightforward. As a result, the proposed method has the advantage of being simple to implement. Numerical examples show that the proposed method is robust and numerically efficient.

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Unbracketing the multiplicity of trauma in North Kivu,Democratic Republic of Congo     

Stephen Taylor  Laurent Mavinga  Moise Bashiga 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2023,44(2):339-355

As international health organizations have increasingly acknowledged the global burden of psychological trauma, global health experts have sought to appraise and organize the treatment of trauma through objective, neutral forms of classification and calculation. Rather than see trauma as a singular thing whose biological, social and psychological formation is bracketed by expert perspectives, this paper focuses on how psychological trauma is enacted—that is, brought into being and sustained—in particular contexts and practices. If trauma can be made and unmade in practices, rather than assumed to be a stable thing, then these practices become a matter of concern rather than fact for geographers. We take as our empirical focus the province of North Kivu in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where trauma has become a matter of growing local, national and international concern. Working with and beyond the conceptual work of Annemarie Mol, we demonstrate how different ‘versions’ of trauma uneasily co-exist in the region. Interrogating these versions, we explore the tensions that arise from attempting to explain and summate the incidence of trauma that is not singular or stable but is, instead, emergent and enacted in a variety of practices.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordli  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367

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The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

Temporal changes in the contribution of methane-oxidizing bacteria to the biomass of chironomid larvae determined using stable carbon isotopes and ancient DNA     

Simon Belle  Claire Parent  Victor Frossard  Valérie Verneaux  Laurent Millet  Panagiota-Myrsini Chronopoulou  Pierre Sabatier  Michel Magny 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(3):215-228

Freshwater lakes are important sources of methane (CH₄) emissions, by organic matter degradation under anaerobic conditions (methanogenesis). Previous studies suggest that lakes contribute up to 16 % of natural emissions. About 60 % of the CH₄ produced is used as an energy source by methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB—methanotrophs), which could support higher trophic levels, especially Chironomidae (Diptera). Because biogenic methane has a very low stable carbon isotope value, evidence of methane-derived organic-matter assimilation can be tracked by stable carbon isotope analysis in consumers such as chironomids. In some cases, however, chironomid δ¹³C values are not low enough to unambiguously demonstrate methanotroph assimilation and an alternative line of evidence is required. Analysis of ancient DNA (aDNA) from the methanotroph community preserved in lake sediment provides reliable information about past methane oxidation in freshwater lakes. A combination of these two approaches was used to study a sediment core from the deepest zone of Lake Narlay (Jura, France), which covers the last 1,500 years of sediment accumulation. Results show a significant change ca. AD 1600, with an increase in the proportion of MOB in the total bacteria community, and a decrease in chironomid head-capsule δ¹³C. These trends suggest assimilation of MOB by chironomid larvae, and account for up to 36 % of the chironomid biomass. The data also provide information about the feeding behavior of chironomids, with evidence for preferential assimilation of methanotroph type I and the NC10 phylum. The combination of aDNA analysis and carbon stable isotopes strengthens the reliability of inferences about carbon sources incorporated into chironomid biomass.  相似文献   

Crustal‐scale fluid flow during the tectonic evolution of the Bighorn Basin (Wyoming,USA)     

Nicolas Beaudoin  Nicolas Bellahsen  Olivier Lacombe  Laurent Emmanuel  Jacques Pironon 《Basin Research》2014,26(3):403-435

Stable isotope measurements (O, C, Sr), microthermometry and salinity measurements of fluid inclusions from different fracture populations in several anticlines of the Sevier‐Laramide Bighorn basin (Wyoming, USA) were used to unravel the palaeohydrological evolution. New data on the microstructural setting were used to complement previous studies and refine the fracture sequence at basin scale. The latter provides the framework and timing of fluid migration events across the basin during the Sevier and Laramide orogenic phases. Since the Sevier tectonic loading of the foreland basin until its later involvement into the Laramide thick‐skinned orogeny, three main fracture sets (out of seven) were found to have efficiently enhanced the hydraulic permeability of the sedimentary cover rocks. These pulses of fluid are attested by calcite crystals precipitated in veins from hydrothermal (T > 120 °C) radiogenic fluids derived from Cretaceous meteoric fluids that interacted with the Precambrian basement rocks. Between these events, vein calcite precipitated from formational fluids at chemical and thermal equilibrium with surrounding environment. At basin scale, the earliest hydrothermal pulse is documented in the western part of the basin during forebulge flexuring and the second one is documented in basement‐cored folds during folding. In addition to this East/West diachronic opening of the cover rocks to hydrothermal pulses probably controlled by the tectonic style, a decrease in ^87/86Sr values from West to East suggests a crustal‐scale partially squeegee‐type eastward fluid migration in both basement and cover rocks since the early phase of the Sevier contraction. The interpretation of palaeofluid system at basin scale also implies that joints developed under an extensional stress regime are better vertical drains than joints developed under strike‐slip regime and enabled migration of basement‐derived hydrothermal fluids.  相似文献   

Acoustic monitoring of gas emissions from the seafloor. Part I: quantifying the volumetric flow of bubbles     

Isabelle Leblond  Carla Scalabrin  Laurent Berger 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2014,35(3):191-210

Three decades of continuous ocean exploration have led us to identify subsurface fluid related processes as a key phenomenon in marine earth science research. The number of seep areas located on the seafloor has been constantly increasing with the use of multi-scale imagery techniques. Due to recent advances in transducer technology and computer processing, multibeam echosounders are now commonly used to detect submarine gas seeps escaping from the seafloor into the water column. A growing number of en-route surveys shows that sites of gas emissions escaping from the seafloor are much more numerous than previously thought. Estimating the temporal variability of the gas flow rate and volumes escaping from the seafloor has thus become a challenge of relevant interest which could be addressed by sea-floor continuous acoustic monitoring. Here, we investigate the feasibility of estimating the volumetric flow rates of gas emissions from horizontal backscattered acoustic signals. Different models based on the acoustic backscattering theory of bubbles are presented. The forward volume backscattering strength and the inversion volumetric flow rate solutions were validated with acoustic measurements from artificial gas flow rates generated in controlled sea-water tank experiments. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate the behavior of the 120-kHz forward solution with respect to model input parameters (horizontal distance between transducer and bubble stream, bubble size distribution and ascent rate). The most sensitive parameter was found to be the distance of the bubble stream which can affect the volume backscattering strength by 20 dB within the horizontal range of 0–200 m. Results were used to derive the detection probability of a bubble stream for a given volume backscattering strength threshold according to different bubble flow rates and horizontal distance.  相似文献