Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia     

Negash Wagesho  N.K. Goel  M.K. Jain 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):354-373

Abstract

Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook

Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373.  相似文献   

Surface exposure dating of non-terrestrial bodies using optically stimulated luminescence: A new method     

Reza Sohbati  Mayank Jain  Andrew Murray 《Icarus》2012,221(1):160-166

We propose a new method for in situ surface exposure dating of non-terrestrial geomorphological features using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL); our approach is based on the progressive emptying of trapped charge with exposure to light at depth into a mineral surface. A complete model of the resetting of OSL with depth and time is presented for the first time; this model includes the competing effects of both optical resetting and irradiation. We consider two extreme conditions at the time the resetting is initiated: (a) a negligibly small trapped charge population and (b) a saturated trapped charge population. The potential dating applications for (a) include dust accumulation, volcanic rocks and impact-related sediments, and for (b) fault scarps, rock-falls, landslides and ice-scoured bedrock. Using assumptions based on terrestrial observations we expect that this approach will be applicable over the last 100 ka. The method is ideally suited to in situ measurement using existing technology developed for space applications, and so offers for the first time the realistic possibility of direct determination of exposure ages of young non-terrestrial surfaces.  相似文献   

Identification and characterization of size-segregated bioaerosols at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Arun Srivastava  Manish Singh  V. K. Jain 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):485-499

Ambient levels of viable bioaerosol were measured at four different sites on the campus of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, India. Most of the viable bioaerosol was associated with the fungal fraction with the remainder due to bacteria. The highest concentrations of fungi were found at a health center (1,293 cfu/m³). The highest concentrations of both gram-positive (338.8 cfu/m²) and gram-negative (614 cfu/m²) bacteria were found at a garbage dump site. Gram-negative bacteria were found in larger numbers than gram-positive, possibly due to the higher ambient temperatures during their sampling. Most of the fungal bioaerosol identified is associated with immunotoxic diseases such as sick building syndrome and allergic diseases and was found in respirable fractions. Since the bacterial fractions were identified on the basis of morphology, i.e. only to the level of genus, their relationship to health effects could not be established. Although most of the sampling occurred indoors in naturally ventilated buildings, external temperature and humidity did not vary significantly during the study. Thus, it is more likely that the types of organisms and levels observed had more to do with the sources (decomposing garbage, spores carried from wooded areas, etc.) than the ambient or indoor environmental conditions.  相似文献   

X-ray emission characteristics of flares associated with CMEs     

Malini Aggarwal  Rajmal Jain  A. P. Mishra  P. G. Kulkarni  Chintan Vyas  R. Sharma  Meera Gupta 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2008,29(1-2):195-205

We present the study of 20 solar flares observed by “Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS)” mission during November 2003 to December 2006 and found associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) seen by LASCO/SOHO mission. In this investigation, X-ray emission characteristics of solar flares and their relationship with the dynamics of CMEs have been presented. We found that the fast moving CMEs, i.e., positive acceleration are better associated with short rise time (< 150 s) flares. However, the velocity of CMEs increases as a function of duration of the flares in both 4.1–10 and 10–20 keV bands. This indicates that the possibility of association of CMEs with larger speeds exists with long duration flare events. We observed that CMEs decelerate with increasing rise time, decay time and duration of the associated X-ray flares. A total 10 out of 20 CMEs under current investigation showed positive acceleration, and 5 of them whose speed did not exceed 589 km/s were associated with short rise time (< 150 s) and short duration (< 1300 s) flares. The other 5 CMEs were associated with long duration or large rise time flare events. The unusual feature of all these positive accelerating CMEs was their low linear speed ranging between 176 and 775 km/s. We do not find any significant correlation between X-ray peak intensity of the flares with linear speed as well as acceleration of the associated CMEs. Based on the onset time of flares and associated CMEs within the observing cadence of CMEs by LASCO, we found that in 16 cases CME preceded the flare by 23 to 1786 s, while in 4 cases flare occurred before the CME by 47 to 685 s. We argue that both events are closely associated with each other and are integral parts of one energy release system.  相似文献   

Seismic fragility of base-isolated water storage tanks under non-stationary earthquakes     

Sandip Kumar Saha  Vasant A. Matsagar  Arvind K. Jain 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(4):1153-1175

Seismic fragility curves for fixed-base and base-isolated liquid storage tanks are developed under non-stationary earthquakes, and their seismic performance are compared. The correlation between different earthquake intensity measure (IM) parameters and peak response quantities of the base-isolated liquid storage tanks are investigated. The failure criteria are chosen based on (1) the elastic buckling strength of the tank wall, which is defined in terms of critical base shear and critical overturning moment, and (2) in terms of the critical isolation displacement. The uncertainty involved is considered in the earthquake characteristics. Non-stationary earthquake ground motions are generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Influence of the isolator characteristic parameters and modeling approaches on the seismic fragility of the base-isolated liquid storage tanks is also investigated. Peak ground acceleration is found to be the well correlated IM parameter with the peak response quantities of the base-isolated liquid storage tanks. Substantial decrease in the seismic fragility of the base-isolated liquid storage tanks is observed as compared to the fixed-base tanks. Significant influence of the isolator characteristic parameters on the seismic fragility of the base-isolated liquid storage tanks are reported in the present study.  相似文献   

Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24     

Nipa J. Bhatt  Rajmal Jain  Malini Aggarwal 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2009,30(1):71-77

A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.  相似文献