A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sönke Dangendorf  Thomas Wahl  Enno Nilson  Birgit Klein  Jürgen Jensen 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):447-467

Atmosphere–ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In this study an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight is introduced. Monthly mean sea level (MSL) time series from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight and one virtual station record are evaluated in comparison to sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. A quasi-linear relationship between MSL in the German Bight and sea level pressure over Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula is found. This relationship is used (1) to evaluate the atmospheric contribution to MSL variability in hindcast experiments over the period from 1871–2008 with data from the twentieth century reanalysis v2 (20CRv2), (2) to isolate the high frequency meteorological variability of MSL from longer-term changes, (3) to derive ensemble projections of the atmospheric contribution to MSL until 2100 with eight different coupled global atmosphere–ocean models (AOGCM’s) under the A1B emission scenario and (4) two additional projections for one AOGCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) under the B1 and A2 emission scenarios. The hindcast produces a reasonable good reconstruction explaining approximately 80 % of the observed MSL variability over the period from 1871 to 2008. Observational features such as the divergent seasonal trend development in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. larger trends from January to March compared to the rest of the year, and regional variations along the German North Sea coastline in trends and variability are well described. For the period from 1961 to 1990 the Kolmogorov-Smirnow test is used to evaluate the ability of the eight AOGCMs to reproduce the observed statistical properties of MSL variations. All models are able to reproduce the statistical distribution of atmospheric MSL. For the target year 2100 the models point to a slight increase in the atmospheric component of MSL with generally larger changes during winter months (October–March). Largest MSL changes in the order of ~5–6 cm are found for the high emission scenario A2, whereas the moderate B1 and intermediate A1B scenarios lead to moderate changes in the order of ~3 cm. All models point to an increasing atmospheric contribution to MSL in the German Bight, but the uncertainties are considerable, i.e. model and scenario uncertainties are in the same order of magnitude.  相似文献   

Causal thinking and support for climate change policies: International survey findings     

Ann Bostrom  Robert E. O’Connor  Gisela Böhm  Daniel Hanss  Otto Bodi  Frida Ekström  Pradipta Halder  Sven Jeschke  Birgit Mack  Mei Qu  Lynn Rosentrater  Anethe Sandve  Ingrid Sælensminde 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):210-222

Few comparative international studies describe the climate change policies people are willing to support and the reasons for their support of different policies. Using survey data from 664 economics and business undergraduates in Austria, Bangladesh, Finland, Germany, Norway, and the United States, we explore how perceived risk characteristics and mental models of climate change influence support for policy alternatives. General green policies such as funding research on renewable technologies and planting trees were the overwhelmingly most popular policy alternatives. Around half the students support carbon reduction policies such as requiring higher car fuel efficiency and increasing taxes on fossil fuels. Least popular were engineering alternatives such as fertilizing the oceans and replacing fossil fuels with nuclear power. Variations among nations are generally small. Support for different policy alternatives corresponds with different causal thinking. Those who hold a pollution model of the causes of climate change, tend to blame environmental harms (e.g., air pollution from toxic chemicals), see general green policy alternatives as effective, and support general green policies. Support of carbon reduction strategies is associated with seeing carbon emissions as the cause and reducing carbon emissions as effective solutions. Support of engineering solutions increases with identifying volcanoes among causes and regarding engineering solutions as effective. Although these international students agree that climate change is a threatening problem, their causal thinking correlates with support for different mitigative policy actions, with the most popular ones not necessarily the most effective.  相似文献   

New high‐resolution age data from the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary indicate rapid,ecologically driven onset of the Cambrian explosion     

Ulf Linnemann  Maria Ovtcharova  Urs Schaltegger  Andreas Grtner  Michael Hautmann  Gerd Geyer  Patricia Vickers‐Rich  Tom Rich  Birgit Plessen  Mandy Hofmann  Johannes Zieger  Rita Krause  Les Kriesfeld  Jeff Smith 《地学学报》2019,31(1):49-58

The replacement of the late Precambrian Ediacaran biota by morphologically disparate animals at the beginning of the Phanerozoic was a key event in the history of life on Earth, the mechanisms and the time‐scales of which are not entirely understood. A composite section in Namibia providing biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data bracketed by radiometric dating constrains the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary to 538.6–538.8 Ma, more than 2 Ma younger than previously assumed. The U–Pb‐CA‐ID TIMS zircon ages demonstrate an ultrashort time frame for the LAD of the Ediacaran biota to the FAD of a complex, burrowing Phanerozoic biota represented by trace fossils to a 410 ka time window of 538.99 ± 0.21 Ma to 538.58 ± 0.19 Ma. The extremely short duration of the faunal transition from Ediacaran to Cambrian biota within less than 410 ka supports models of ecological cascades that followed the evolutionary breakthrough of increased mobility at the beginning of the Phanerozoic.  相似文献   

Automated derivation and spatio-temporal analysis of landslide properties in southern Kyrgyzstan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Darya Golovko  Sigrid Roessner  Robert Behling  Birgit Kleinschmit 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1461-1488

The study area located in southern Kyrgyzstan is affected by high and ongoing landslide activity. To characterize this activity, a multi-temporal landslide inventory containing over 2800 landslide polygons was generated from multiple data sources. The latter include the results of automated landslide detection from multi-temporal satellite imagery. The polygonal representation of the landslides allows for characterization of the landslide geometry and determination of further landslide attributes in a way that accounts for the diversity of conditions within the landslide, e.g., at the landslide main scarp opposed to its toe. To perform such analyses, a methodology for efficient geographic information system (GIS)-based attribute derivation was developed, which includes both standard and customized GIS tools. We derived a number of landslide attributes, including area, length, compactness, slope, aspect, distance to stream and geology. The distributions of these attributes were analyzed to obtain a better understanding of landslide properties in the study area as a preliminary step for probabilistic landslide hazard assessment. The obtained spatial and temporal attribute variations were linked to differences in the environmental characteristics within the study area, in which the geological setting proved to be the most important differentiating factor. Moreover, a significant influence of the different data sources on the distribution of the landslide attribute values was found, indicating the importance of a critical evaluation of the landslide data to be used in landslide hazard assessments.  相似文献   

Antarctic Ecosystems. An Extreme Environment in a Changing World A.D. Rogers,N.M. Johnston,E.J. Murphy,A. Clarke (Eds) Chichester,UK; Hoboken,NJ, USA: Wiley‐Blackwell, 2012. 756 pp. ISBN: 978‐1‐4051‐9840‐0. Hardback; GBP 85.     

Birgit Sattler 《Marine Ecology》2013,34(4):503-505

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基于变化轨迹探测的植被景观格局动态分析——以塔里木河下游生态输水区域为例   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘桂林  艾里西尔·库尔班  玉米提·哈力克  段含明  Philipp Gartner  阿布都米吉提·阿布利克木  牛婷 《中国沙漠》2012,32(5):1472-1478

 在遥感与GIS技术支持下,以2006、2007、2009、2010年Landsat-5/TM影像与2008年的CBERS/CCD影像为主要数据源,获得5 a的植被/非植被类型图。在此基础上,提取并归纳5 a间的植被变化轨迹:恒定植被、恒定非植被、转变为植被、转变为非植被、非稳定变化。利用景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS 3.3计算了变化轨迹景观格局的3种景观指标。结果表明,2006—2010年植被面积减小,主要因为生态输水量减小、输水间隔较大,导致草本植被、乔灌木幼苗死亡;恒定非植被的比重最大,表明非植被类型是研究区的基质,其次是转变为非植被的比重,说明5 a间植被的衰退程度要强于恢复程度;转变为植被与非稳定变化两种类型属于过渡性植被变化类型,受生态输水量、分布的制约严重;各种变化轨迹类型的形状规则较为稳定,其中以恒定非植被类型最稳定而非稳定变化类型最不稳定。  相似文献   

North Atlantic control on precipitation pattern in the eastern Mediterranean/Black Sea region during the last glacial   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Olga Kwiecien  Helge W. Arz  Frank Lamy  Birgit Plessen  Andr Bahr  Gerald H. Haug 《Quaternary Research》2009,71(3):375-384

Based on proxy records from western Black Sea cores, we provide a comprehensive study of climate change during the last glacial maximum and late-glacial period in the Black Sea region. For the first time we present a record of relative changes in precipitation for NW Anatolia based on variations in the terrigenous supply expressed as detrital carbonate concentration. The good correspondence between reconstructed rainfall intensity in NW Anatolia and past western Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) implies that during the glacial period the precipitation variability was controlled, like today, by Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances. Periods of reduced precipitation correlate well with low SSTs in the Mediterranean related to Heinrich events H1 and H2. Stable oxygen isotopes and lithological and mineralogical data point to a significant modification in the dominant freshwater/sediment source concomitant to the meltwater inflow after 16.4 cal ka BP. This change implies intensification of the northern sediment source and, with other records from the Mediterranean region, consistently suggests a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation pattern affecting the hydrology of the European continent. The early deglacial northward retreat of both atmospheric and oceanic polar fronts was responsible for the warming in the Mediterranean region, leading simultaneously to more humid conditions in central and northern Europe.  相似文献   

Implications of tree species–environment relationships for the responsiveness of Himalayan krummholz treelines to climate change     

Niels Schwab  Udo Schickhoff  Birgit Bürzle  Michael Müller  Jürgen Böhner  Ram Prasad Chaudhary  Thomas Scholten  Jens Oldeland 《山地科学学报》2017,14(3):453-473

Climate warming is expected to advance treelines to higher elevations. However, empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. In this context, we aim at investigating the sensitivity and responsiveness of the near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming. We analysed population densities of tree species along the treeline ecotone from closed forest stands via the krummholz belt to alpine dwarf shrub heaths (3700-4200 m) at 50 plots in 2013 and 2014. We quantified species - environment relationships, i.e. the change of environmental conditions (e.g., nutrient and thermal deficits, plant interactions) across the ecotone by means of redundancy analyses, variation partitioning and distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps. In particular, we focus on explaining the high competitiveness of Rhododendron campanulatum forming a dense krummholz belt and on the implications for the responsiveness of Himalayan krummholz treelines to climate change. Results indicate that treeline trees in the ecotone show species-specific responses to the influence of environmental parameters, and that juvenile and adult tree responses are modulated by environmental constraints in differing intensity. Moreover, the species - environment relationships suggest that the investigated krummholz belt will largely prevent the upward migration of other tree species and thus constrain the future response of Himalayan krummholz treelines to climate warming.  相似文献   

A cold air outbreak near Spitsbergen in springtime — Boundary-layer modification and cloud development     

Burghard Brümmer  Birgit Rump  Gottfried Kruspe 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1992,61(1-2):13-46

A moderate cold air outbreak from the Arctic ice over the warm West-Spitsbergen current on 15 and 16 May 1988 during the field experiment ARKTIS '88 is analysed using data from four aircraft and one research vessel.The downstream development of cloud coverage appears to depend sensitively on the moisture content above the inversion. The cloud amount determines the energy balance at the sea surface. Under daytime conditions and little cloud cover, energy is added to the ocean in spite of sensible and latent heat losses.The downstream temperature increase in the boundary layer is controlled by sensible heat flux and by longwave radiation cooling. The entrainment sensible heat flux is the dominating term in the region near the ice edge. The downstream moisture increase is controlled by surface evaporation. Condensation processes play no significant role.On 16 May 1988 cloud streets near the ice edge changed to closed cloud meanders in the downstream direction. The aspect ratio increased from 3 to around 10 over a distance of 200 km. In the cloud street region, the dynamical generation of turbulent kinetic energy due to wind shear at the tilted inversion was larger than the thermal generation.Cloud droplet concentration, mean droplet radius and liquid water content increased linearly with height. The maximum liquid water content was only 0.1 g/kg near the top of a 400 m thick closed cloud and clearly below the adiabatic value. The net longwave radiation flux decreased by 50 W/m² at cloud top and increased by 13 W/m² at cloud base.  相似文献   

Field Studies on the Fate and Transport of Pharmaceutical Residues in Bank Filtration   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Thomas Heberer  y Mechlinski  Britta Fanck  rea Knappe  Gudrun Massmann  Asaf Pekdeger  Birgit Fritz 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2004,24(2):70-77

Bank filtration and artificial ground water recharge are important, effective, and cheap techniques for surface water treatment and removal of microbes, as well as inorganic, and some organic, contaminants. Nevertheless, physical, chemical, and biological processes of the removal of impurities are not understood sufficiently. A research project titled Natural and Artificial Systems for Recharge and Infiltration attempts to provide more clarity in the processes affecting the removal of these contaminants. The project focuses on the fate and transport of selected emerging contaminants during bank filtration at two transects in Berlin, Germany. Several detections of pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) in ground water samples from bank filtration sites in Germany led to furthering research on the removal of these compounds during bank filtration. In this study, six PhACs including the analgesic drugs diclofenac and propyphenazone, the antiepileptic drugs carbamazepine and primidone, and the drug metabolites clofibric acid and 1-acetyl-1-methyl-2-dimethyl-oxamoyl-2-phenylhydrazide were found to leach from the contaminated streams and lakes into the ground water. These compounds were also detected at low concentrations in receiving public supply wells. Bank filtration either decreased the concentrations by dilution (e.g., for carbamazepine and primidone) and partial removal (e.g., for diclofenac), or totally removed PhACs (e.g., bezafibrate, indomethacine, antibiotics, and estrogens). Several PhACs, such as carbamazepine and especially primidone, were readily transported during bank filtration. They are thought to be good indicators for evaluating whether surface water is impacted by contamination from municipal sewage effluent or whether contamination associated with sewage effluent can be transported into ground water at ground water recharge sites.  相似文献