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51.
52.
Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models’ oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original global models. Furthermore, the downscaled results are closer to observations. On the other hand, the downscaled results from the scenario simulations are significantly different: while the heat transport into the Barents Sea and the salinity distribution change modestly from control to scenario with ROMS-G, in ROMS-N the heat transport is much larger in the scenario simulation, and the water masses become much less saline. The lack of robustness in the results from the scenario simulations leads us to conclude that the results for the regional oceanic response to changes in the radiative forcing depend on the choice of AOGCM and is not settled. Consequently, the effect of climate change on the marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea is anything but certain.  相似文献   
53.
Controls of Wellbore Flow Regimes on Pump Effluent Composition   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Where well water and formation water are compositionally different or heterogeneous, pump effluent composition will vary due to partial mixing and transport induced by pumping. Investigating influences of purging and sampling methodology on composition variability requires quantification of wellbore flow regimes and mixing. As a basis for this quantification, analytical models simulating Poiseuille flow were developed to calculate flow paths and travel times. Finite element modeling was used to incorporate influences of mixing. Parabolic velocity distributions within the screened interval accelerate with cumulative inflow approaching the pump intake while an annulus of inflowing formation water contracts uniformly to displace an axial cylinder of pre‐pumping well water as pumping proceeds. Increased dispersive mixing forms a more diffuse formation water annulus and the contribution of formation water to pump effluent increases more rapidly. Models incorporating viscous flow and diffusion scale mixing show that initially pump effluent is predominantly pre‐pumping well water and compositions vary most rapidly. After two screen volumes of pumping, 94% of pump effluent is inflowing formation water. Where the composition of formation water and pre‐pumping well water are likely to be similar, pump effluent compositions will not vary significantly and may be collected during early purging or with passive sampling. However, where these compositions are expected to be considerably different or heterogeneous, compositions would be most variable during early pumping, that is, when samples are collected during low‐flow sampling. Purging of two screen volumes would be required to stabilize the content and collect a sample consisting of 94% formation water.  相似文献   
54.
We investigated a small‐scale laboratory model of a talus slope evolution. Five different size classes of basaltic rock were selected and marked with different colours. Homogenized mixtures of grains of different sizes were dropped from a fixed height onto a tilted experimental board covered with a loose granular layer. This was conducted in a series of regular sequences, and the resulting distribution on the board was studied after each sequence. At the beginning of the experiment, the grains developed a longitudinal gradation similar to natural talus slopes, where small grains settle at the top while the large ones roll down to the distal part. However, after a transient period dominated by single‐particle dynamics on the inert granular medium, the evolution proved to be more variable than expected. Due to the continuous shower of falling grains, the shear stress at the bottom of the upper granular layer increased. This resulted initially in a slow creep down slope that finally collapsed in large avalanches homogenizing the material. The slides occurred at the boundary between a weaker layer created by migration of small grains through the interstices, and marked by a vertical transition between small and large grains. We compare the experimental findings with observations from natural talus slopes, and suggest that similar experiments may be helpful in understanding the evolution of taluses. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
55.
Diaz  John  Carnevale  Shannon  Millett  Cheryl  Abd-Elrahman  Amr  Britt  Katie 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(2):1905-1916
Natural Hazards - Natural ecosystems are characterized as dynamic systems that evolve through natural patterns of disturbance. Land managers can work within this system of natural disturbance by...  相似文献   
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