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81.
The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
M. Bruno G. Cremonese S. Marchi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(3):1067-1071
In this work, we calculate the vapour and neutral Na production rates on the Moon, as due to the impacts of meteoroids in the radius range of 10−8 –0.15 m. We limit our calculations to this size range, since meteoroids with radius larger than 0.15 m have not been found to be important for the production of the exosphere in a time interval comparable with that of the observations.
We have considered a new dynamical model of the flux of meteoroids at the heliocentric distance of the Moon, regarding objects in the radius range of 10−2 –0.15 m. Instead, the flux of smaller meteoroids (radius range 10−8 –10−2 m) has been calculated using the two distributions adopted by Cintala and Love & Brownlee.
The results of our model are that (i) the neutral Na production rate is ∼3–4.9 × 104 atoms cm−2 s−1 , slightly larger than the previous estimates (∼2–3 × 104 atoms cm−2 s−1 ) , and (ii) only about 6 per cent of neutral Na is produced by the impacts of meteoroids in the size range 10−3 –0.15 m, whereas about 94 per cent of the Na comes from the 10−5 –10−3 m size range. 相似文献
We have considered a new dynamical model of the flux of meteoroids at the heliocentric distance of the Moon, regarding objects in the radius range of 10
The results of our model are that (i) the neutral Na production rate is ∼3–4.9 × 10
83.
We derive the transformations to convert the state vector in cartesian coordinates into geometric orbital elements (and conversely
the geometric elements into the state vector) for a test particle moving around an oblate planet. These transformations arise
from the epicyclic theory and are accurate to second order in eccentricity and inclination. This paper is written to be directly
used for computational purposes, such as the numerical study of ring dynamics. 相似文献
84.
Spectro-imaging of Venus' nightside in the 2.3-μm window provides a powerful means of probing the lower atmosphere in the 25-40 km altitude range. We present observations recorded at the NASA/IRTF in February 2003 and August 2004, using the SpeX spectro-imager in the 2.1-2.5-μm region. Abundances of CO and OCS have been derived as a function of latitude for different longitudes. The CO abundance increases by about 15% between the equatorial region and higher latitudes (±40°). No longitudinal or temporal variations are observed. The OCS abundance shows the opposite variation in observational sets with sufficient S/N. These variations and anticorrelation are consistent with upwelling motions in the equatorial region and downwelling at higher latitudes. 相似文献
85.
Xavier Bruna Catarino Egydio-Silva Marcos Sadowski Georg Robert de Assis Silva Bruno Takara Victor Junji 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2022,40(3):1345-1361
Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - To optimize the prediction of structural geological conditions in the underground as of data collected at the surface, due to the usual great uncertainties... 相似文献
86.
Abstract The Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP-9) decided to adopt an accounting system based on expiring carbon credits to address the problem of non-permanent carbon storage in forests established under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews and discusses carbon accounting methods that were under consideration before COP-9 and presents a model which calculates the minimum area that forest plantation projects should reach to be able to compensate CDM transaction costs with the revenues from carbon credits. The model compares different accounting methods under various sets of parameters on project management, transaction costs, and carbon prices. Model results show that under current carbon price and average transaction costs, projects with an area of less than 500 ha are excluded from the CDM, whatever accounting method is used. Temporary crediting appears to be the most favorable approach to account for non-permanent carbon removal in forests and also for the feasibility of smaller projects. However, lower prices for credits with finite lifetimes may prevent the establishment of CDM forestry projects. Also, plantation projects with low risk of unexpected carbon loss and sufficient capacity for insuring or buffering the risk of carbon re-emission would benefit from equivalence-adjusted average carbon storage accounting rather than from temporary crediting. 相似文献
87.
88.
Because of their fast response to hydrological events, small catchments show strong quantitative and qualitative variations in their water runoff. Fluxes of solutes or suspended material can be estimated from water samples only if an appropriate sampling scheme is used. We used continuous in‐stream measurements of the electrical conductivity of the runoff in a small subalpine catchment (64 ha) in central Switzerland and in a very small (0·16 ha) subcatchment. Different sampling and flux integration methods were simulated for weekly water analyses. Fluxes calculated directly from grab samples are strongly biased towards high conductivities observed at low discharges. Several regressions and weighted averages have been proposed to correct for this bias. Their accuracy and precision are better, but none of these integration methods gives a consistently low bias and a low residual error. Different methods of peak sampling were also tested. Like regressions, they produce important residual errors and their bias is variable. This variability (both between methods and between catchments) does not allow one to tell a priori which sampling scheme and integration method would be more accurate. Only discharge‐proportional sampling methods were found to give essentially unbiased flux estimates. Programmed samplers with a fraction collector allow for a proportional pooling and are appropriate for short‐term studies. For long‐term monitoring or experiments, sampling at a frequency proportional to the discharge appears to be the best way to obtain accurate and precise flux estimates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
89.
Data from the 13 May 1971 β Scorpii occultation by the southern polar region of Jupiter (Vapillon et al., 1973, Astron. Astrophys. 29, 135-149) are re-analyzed with current methods. We correct the previous results for an inacurrate background estimation and calculate new temperature profiles, that are now consistent with the results of other observers of this occultation, as well as with the current knowledge of the jovian atmosphere. The characteristics of the profiles of temperature gradient and the spectral behavior of the temperature fluctuations are found to be similar to the results of previous investigations of planetary atmospheres and in agreement with the presence of atmospheric propagating gravity waves in the jovian atmosphere. We use a wavelet analysis of the temperature profiles to identify the dominant modes of wave activity and compare the reconstructed temperature fluctuations to model-generated gravity waves. 相似文献
90.