排序方式： 共有39条查询结果，搜索用时 156 毫秒
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Pichelli Emanuela Coppola Erika Sobolowski Stefan Ban Nikolina Giorgi Filippo Stocchi Paolo Alias Antoinette Belu&#;i&#; Danijel Berthou Segolene Caillaud Cecile Cardoso Rita M. Chan Steven Christensen Ole B&#;ssing Dobler Andreas de Vries Hylke Goergen Klaus Kendon Elizabeth J. Keuler Klaus Lenderink Geert Lorenz Torge Mishra Aditya N. Panitz Hans-Juergen Sch&#;r Christoph Soares Pedro M. M. Truhetz Heimo Vergara-Temprado Jesus 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3581-3602
This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.
相似文献33.
Nesar Ahmed Sanzidur Rahman Stuart W. Bunting Cecile Brugere 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2013,34(1):86-102
Socio‐economic and ecological challenges faced by the small‐scale fishers dependent on the Old Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh are assessed using a combination of questionnaire survey, co‐monitoring of fish catch, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Results reveal that the fishers are involved in professional, seasonal or subsistence fishing. Fish catches from the river have declined significantly because of overfishing, destructive use of fishing gear, water pollution, siltation, rapid urbanization and human encroachment, thereby threatening the health of the river ecosystem as well as the future of small‐scale fishing. We evaluate various social, economic and ecological challenges faced by the fisher communities. We propose a conceptual framework that recognizes linkages among social, economic and ecological aspects in devising a sustainable river fisheries management system. We recommend effective legal enforcement of policies and regulations, strong institutional collaboration and active fisher community participation in management to ensure sustainable use of the resource base. 相似文献
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Alix Lombard Anny Cazenave Kien DoMinh Cecile Cabanes R. Steven Nerem 《Global and Planetary Change》2005,48(4):155
In this paper we compare sea level trends observed at a few selected tide gauges of good quality records with thermosteric (i.e., due to ocean temperature change) sea level trends over 1950–1998 using different gridded ocean temperature data sets from Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.], Ishii et al. (2003) [Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., Kachi, M., 2003. Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 51–73.] and Levitus et al. (2005) [Levitus S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2005. Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02604. doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.]. When using the Levitus data, we observe very high thermosteric rates at sites located along the northeast coast of the US, north of 37°N. Such high rates are not observed with the Ishii data. Elsewhere, thermosteric rates agree reasonably well whatever the data set. Excluding the northeast US coastline sites north of 37°N, we compare tide gauge-based sea level trends with thermosteric trends and note that, in spite of a significant correlation, the latter are too small to explain the observed trends. After correcting for thermosteric sea level trends, residual (observed minus thermosteric) trends have an average value of 1.4 ± 0.5 mm/year, which should have an eustatic (i.e., due to ocean mass change) origin. This result supports the recent investigation by Miller and Douglas (2004) [Miller, L., Douglas, B.C., 2004. Mass and volume contributions to 20th century global sea level rise. Nature 428, 406–408.] which suggests that a dominant eustatic contribution is needed to explain the rate of sea level rise of the last decades observed by tide gauges, and shows that Cabanes et al. (2001) [Cabanes, C., Cazenave, A., Le Provost, C., 2001. Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations. Science 294, 840–842.] arrived at an incorrect conclusion due to peculiarities in the gridded Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., and Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.] data set. 相似文献
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David W. Peate Joel A. Baker Sveinn P. Jakobsson Tod E. Waight Adam J. R. Kent Nathalie V. Grassineau Anna Cecile Skovgaard 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(3):359-382
We present new compositional data on a suite of historic lava flows from the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland. They were erupted
over a short time period between c. 940 and c. 1340 ad and provide a snap-shot view of melt generation and evolution processes beneath this onshore, 65 km long, ridge segment.
The lavas are tholeiitic basalts (MgO 6.5–9.2 wt%) and sparsely (≪5%) olivine and/or plagioclase phyric (±trace clinopyroxene).
Individual eruptive events show remarkable compositional homogeneity. Despite a limited variation in Sr–Nd isotope compositions,
high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data show tight coherent arrays that, together with correlations with incompatible
trace element ratios, indicate control by binary mixing processes. Poor correlations with elemental abundances require that
this mixing took place prior to extensive fractional crystallisation. Olivines in the historic lavas have light δ18O values (+4.2 to +4.3‰), which is likely to be a feature of the enriched mantle source to Reykjanes Peninsula lavas. High
precision Pb isotope analyses of other post-glacial Reykjanes Peninsula lavas show significant variability in 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb at lower 206Pb/204Pb values than in the historic lavas. This variation demonstrates that at least three compositionally distinct components
within the mantle are required to explain the Pb isotope variations within the Reykjanes Peninsula as a whole.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
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Edward S. Gilfillan Nicole P. Maher Cecile M. Krejsa Mary E. Lanphear Christopher D. Ball Jeremy B. Meltzer David S. Page 《Marine pollution bulletin》1995,30(12):780-787
Image analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to examine the effects of the Amoco Cadiz oil spill and resulting clean-up on marsh ecology. Two heavily oiled marsh systems were compared. The marsh which received no clean-up recovered to its prior condition. The marshes in the system cleaned by sediment removal were extensively altered as a result of changes in intertidal height of the sediment surface. 相似文献
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Channel and floodplain sediment dynamics in a reach of the tropical meandering Rio Beni (Bolivian Amazonia) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Emmanuèle Gautier Daniel Brunstein Philippe Vauchel Jean‐Marie Jouanneau Marc Roulet Coral Garcia Jean‐Loup Guyot Marcello Castro 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(15):1838-1853
The study investigates interactions, water and sediment exchanges, between a rapidly migrating meander and its associated floodplain at fine temporal and spatial scales. The Beni River, an Amazonian free meandering river, makes the transition between Andean ranges and Amazonian lowlands. For the period 2002–2006, an assemblage of tools and methods (water and sediment discharges, topometric and bathymetric surveys, sedimentation rate estimations from unsupported 210Pb and sediment trapping system) was used to jointly analyse the influence on the sediment budget of external factors (mainly water and sediment discharge) and the inherent behaviour of the system. The main issue addressed is the investigation of the complex relationship between ‘morphological conditioning’ of fluvial landform and process. The first part of the study was undertaken with the aim of linking erosion–deposition in an active meander with water and sediment fluxes. The three inter‐annual evolutions are characterized by very unequal sediment budgets; the first two intervals underwent predominant erosion, and the latter slight accumulation. Digital elevation models, evaluated for the active meander, demonstrate that sedimentation on the point bar depends more on external factors than erosion of the concave bank, which fluctuates slightly. The second part of the study, focusing on water and sediment exchanges between active bend and floodplain, examines the respective parts played by overbank flow and by an abandoned channel on the diffusion and sequestration of sediment. The association of short‐ and long‐term estimation of sedimentation rates suggests that floodplain construction is associated with two different processes and rhythms of sediment transportation. Finally, a sediment budget is proposed for the Beni River in the upper part of the Amazonian lowlands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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