Modelling basin-scale distribution of fish occurrence probability for assessment of flow and habitat conditions in rivers     

Pengzhe Sui  Akito Iwasaki  Oliver C. Saavedra V.  Chihiro Yoshimura 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(3-4):618-628

Abstract

Flow regimes play an important role in sustaining biodiversity in river ecosystems. However, the effects of flow regimes on riverine fish have not been clearly described. Therefore, we propose a new methodology to quantitatively link habitat conditions (such as flow indices and physical habitat conditions) to the occurrence probability (OP) of fish species. We developed a basin-scale fish distribution model by integrating the concept of habitat suitability assessment with a distributed hydrological model in order to estimate the OP of fish, with particular attention to flow regime. A generalized linear model was used to evaluate the relationship between the probabilities of fish occurrence and major environmental factors in river sections. A geomorphology-based hydrological model was adopted to simulate river discharge, which was used to calculate 10 flow indices. The occurrence probabilities of 50 fish species in the Sagami River in Japan were modelled. For the prediction accuracy, field survey results that included at least five observations of both the presence and the absence of each species were required to obtain relatively reliable prediction (accuracy > 60%). Using the developed model, important habitat conditions for each species were identified, which showed the importance of low-flow events for more than 10 species, including Hypomesus nipponensis and Rhinogobius fluviatilis. The model also confirmed the positive effects of natural flow and the negative effect of river-crossing structures, such as dams and weirs, on the OP of most species. The suggested approach enables us to evaluate and project the ecological consequences of water resource management policy. The results demonstrate the applicability of the fish distribution model to provide quantitative information on the flow required to maintain fish communities.