Processes in the surface mixed layer of the ocean     

Chris Garrett 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1996,23(1-4)

Models for the evolution of the surface mixed layer need to be improved to include dominant processes such as Langmuir circulation. It is shown that the wave forcing in Langmuir circulation models is much stronger than that due to a surface buoyancy loss, and studies of the erosion by the cells of a pre-existing stratification are described. Mixed layer models will also need to allow for horizontal inhomogeneity. It is shown, for example, that the horizontal buoyancy gradient that may be left behind after a storm produces restratification that can be significant. The nonlinearity of the equation of state is another real-world factor; it gives rise to an annual average surface buoyancy that is misleading as it is compensated by interior cabbeling. Current work linking the mixed layer to water mass formation is also introduced.  相似文献   

POPULATION CENSUS WITH THE AID OF AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS: AN EXPERIMENT IN THE CITY OF LEEDS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. G. Collins  A. H. A. El-Beik   《The Photogrammetric Record》1971,7(37):16-26

This study shows how aerial photographs can be of value in a population census. The census and the enumeration district maps were used initially to obtain population data and the housing stock was derived from the aerial photographs. From these the population densities were determined of a number of sample enumeration districts containing a single type of house. Another set of enumeration districts was selected and the housing stock again derived from the aerial photographs. By considering the type and quantity of housing stock and the population density of each housing type, the population figures were estimated for each enumeration district. The values of these population estimates were then compared with the values recorded in the census. The overall population estimate had an error of only 2%, but the estimates for some of the individual enumeration districts showed greater errors. These errors are assessed and analysed and some suggestions are made to improve the methodology used in this study.  相似文献   

V473 Lyrae: a Blazhko-effect Cepheid?     

Chris Koen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,322(1):97-99

The amplitude spectra of the light curves of RR Lyrae Blazhko stars can often be typified by symmetrical triplets. It is shown that the same applies to V473 Lyr. Furthermore, the star is probably a radial pulsator – as is thought to be the case for the RR Lyrae stars – thus ruling out rotational splitting of a purely non-radial mode.  相似文献   

Meso-scale testing and development of test procedures to maintain mass balance     

Bonner J  Page C  Fuller C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,47(9-12):406-414

The Conrad Blucher Institute for Surveying and Science (Texas A&M University––Corpus Christi) has conducted numerous petroleum experiments at the Shoreline Environmental Research Facility (Corpus Christi, Texas, USA). The meso-scale facility has multiple wave tanks, permitting some control in experimental design of the investigations, but allowing for real-world conditions. This paper outlines the evolution of a materials balance approach in conducting petroleum experiments at the facility. The first attempt at a materials balance was during a 1998 study on the fate/effects of dispersant use on crude oil. Both water column and beach sediment samples were collected. For the materials balance, the defined environmental compartments for oil accumulation were sediments, water column, and the water surface, while the discharge from the tanks was presumed to be the primary sink. The “lessons learned” included a need to quantify oil adhesion to the tank surfaces. This was resolved by adhering strips of the polymer tank lining to the tank sides that could be later removed and extracted for oil. Also, a protocol was needed to quantify any floating oil on the water surface. A water surface (oil slick) quantification protocol was developed, involving the use of solid-phase extraction disks. This protocol was first tested during a shoreline cleaner experiment, and later refined in subsequent dispersant effectiveness studies. The effectiveness tests were designed to simulate shallow embayments which created the need for additional adjustments in the tanks. Since dispersant efficacy is largely affected by hydrodynamics, it was necessary to scale the hydrodynamic conditions of the tanks to those expected in our prototype system (Corpus Christi Bay, Texas). The use of a scaled model permits the experiment to be reproduced and/or evaluated under different conditions. To minimize wave reflection in the tank, a parabolic wave dissipater was built. In terms of materials balance, this design reduced available surface area as a sink for oil adsorption.  相似文献   

Efstadalsvatn – a multi-proxy study of a Holocene lacustrine sequence from NW Iceland     

Chris Caseldine  Áslaug Geirsdóttir  Peter Langdon 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2003,30(1):55-73

Multi-proxy data, both lithostratigraphic and biostratigraphic, are presented from Efstadalsvatn, a lake in NW Iceland. The sequence covers the period 10,000 to 3500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The biostratgraphic data include the first Icelandic chironomid-based reconstruction of Holocene mean July air temperatures, using a Norwegian training set in the absence of modern Icelandic data. The results show that deglaciation and ecosystem development probably began before 10,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and that July temperatures were around 4°C at ca. 9500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Temperatures then rose to ca. 8°C at the time of the deposition of the Saksunarvatn tephra (9100 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), reaching ca. 10°C by 8500 ¹⁴C yr B.P., high enough for the growth of tree birch, although successful birch colonisation did not take place until 6750 ¹⁴C yr B.P. There is some evidence for cooling immediately preceding 9100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. There is little firm biostratigraphic evidence for the 8200 cal. B.P. event, although this may be due to a relatively low resolution pollen sampling interval, but there are changes at this time in the total carbon (TC) and mass susceptibility (MS) data. Optimal temperatures and relative vegetation stability may have occurred between 8000–6100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. but the chironomid assemblages indicate higher temperatures after 5000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. This latter interpretation may, however, reflect delayed colonisation of thermophilous taxa and requires further investigation. There is evidence in the lithostratigraphy for greater local terrestrial instability after 6100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. but it seems unlikely that this led to the redevelopment of ice in the catchment. The biostratigraphic records appear to show a degree of resistence to climate forcing throughout the early and middle Holocene. The new chironomid-based temperature reconstruction needs to be refined by further studies in Iceland, particularly the development of an Icelandic training set, but has already demonstrated the problems of paleoclimatic interpretations based on pollen and/or macrofossil evidence alone.  相似文献   

The effects of rock uplift and rock resistance on river morphology in a subduction zone forearc,Oregon, USA     

Sam VanLaningham  Andrew Meigs  Chris Goldfinger 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(10):1257-1279

Relationships between riverbed morphology, concavity, rock type and rock uplift rate are examined to independently unravel the contribution of along-strike variations in lithology and rates of vertical deformation to the topographic relief of the Oregon coastal mountains. Lithologic control on river profile form is reflected by convexities and knickpoints in a number of longitudinal profiles and by general trends of concavity as a function of lithology. Volcanic and sedimentary rocks are the principal rock types underlying the northern Oregon Coast Ranges (between 46°30′ and 45°N) where mixed bedrock–alluvial channels dominate. Average concavity, θ, is 0·57 in this region. In the alluviated central Oregon Coast Ranges (between 45° and 44°N) values of concavity are, on average, the highest (θ = 0·82). South of 44°N, however, bedrock channels are common and θ = 0·73. Mixed bedrock–alluvial channels characterize rivers in the Klamath Mountains (from 43°N south; θ = 0·64). Rock uplift rates of ≥0·5 mm a⁻¹, mixed bedrock–alluvial channels, and concavities of 0·53–0·70 occur within the northernmost Coast Ranges and Klamath Mountains. For rivers flowing over volcanic rocks θ = 0·53, and θ = 0·72 for reaches crossing sedimentary rocks. Whereas channel type and concavity generally co-vary with lithology along much of the range, rivers between 44·5° and 43°N do not follow these trends. Concavities are generally greater than 0·70, alluvial channels are common, and river profiles lack knickpoints between 44·5° and 44°N, despite the fact that lithology is arguably invariant. Moreover, rock uplift rates in this region vary from low, ≤0·5 mm a⁻¹, to subsidence (<0 mm a⁻¹). These observations are consistent with models of transient river response to a decrease in uplift rate. Conversely, the rivers between 44° and 43°N have similar concavities and flow on the same mapped bedrock unit as the central region, but have bedrock channels and irregular longitudinal profiles, suggesting the river profiles reflect a transient response to an increase in uplift rate. If changes in rock uplift rate explain the differences in river profile form and morphology, it is unlikely that rock uplift and erosion are in steady state in the Oregon coastal mountains. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Scale in structure and dynamics     

Ian Main  Bruce Malamud  Chris Bean  John McCloskey 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2006,47(6):6.24-6.25

Ian Main, Bruce Malamud, Chris Bean and John McCloskey summarize the presentations and lively debate at the British Geophysical Association's annual British Discussion Meeting on Scale-Invariance and Scale-Dependence in Earth Structure and Dynamics.  相似文献   

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

G. R. Harris  D. M. H. Sexton  B. B. B. Booth  M. Collins  J. M. Murphy  M. J. Webb 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(4):357-375

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.  相似文献   

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review     

Simon Dietz  Chris Hope  Nicola Patmore 《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):311-325

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.  相似文献   

Snow cover variability across central Canada (1978–2002) derived from satellite passive microwave data     

Michael A. Wulder  Trisalyn A. Nelson  Chris Derksen  David Seemann 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):113-130

Twenty-four winter seasons (1978–2002) of mean February snow water equivalent (SWE) values were analyzed in an exploration of the spatial pattern of temporal variability in snow cover across the non-mountainous interior of Canada. The SWE data were derived from space-borne passive microwave brightness temperatures processed with a land cover-sensitive suite of algorithms. Spatial patterns in the frequency and amount of variability were investigated on an annual basis through comparisons with average trends over all 24 years. Changes in temporal variability through time were also investigated by comparing three eight year time periods to general trends. Analyses were synthesized at the ecozone scale in order to link results both to potential land cover influences on algorithm performance and climatological variability in SWE. Prairie and northern ecozones were typically found to be the most variable in terms of SWE magnitude. Analyses indicate that non-treed land cover classes are generally more variable than treed classes. The results also indicate that extreme weather events appear to be occurring with increasing consistency in the Prairie and Arctic regions. Discerning climatologically significant variability in the time series, compared to algorithm-related issues can be a challenge, but in an era of eroding surface observing networks the passive microwave time series represents an important resource for monitoring and detecting trends and variability in terrestrial snow cover.  相似文献