The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Building a sustained climate assessment process     

James L. Buizer  Kirstin Dow  Mary E. Black  Katharine L. Jacobs  Anne Waple  Richard H. Moss  Susanne Moser  Amy Luers  David I. Gustafson  T.C. Richmond  Sharon L. Hays  Christopher B. Field 《Climatic change》2016,136(1):23-37

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Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality     

Simon J. Lloyd  R. Sari Kovats  Zaid Chalabi  Sally Brown  Robert J. Nicholls 《Climatic change》2016,134(3):441-455

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Subalpine fires: the roles of vegetation,climate and,ultimately, land uses     

Bérangère Leys  Christopher Carcaillet 《Climatic change》2016,135(3-4):683-697

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Modeling Roughness of Rock Discontinuity Surfaces: A Signal Analysis Approach     

Christopher Pickering  Adnan Aydin 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(7):2959-2965

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Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX RCMs over Eastern Africa     

Hussen Seid Endris  Christopher Lennard  Bruce Hewitson  Alessandro Dosio  Grigory Nikulin  Hans-Jürgen Panitz 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(9-10):2821-2846

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Effectiveness of observation-domain sidereal filtering for GPS precise point positioning     

Christopher Atkins  Marek Ziebart 《GPS Solutions》2016,20(1):111-122

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Tessellations in GIS: Part II–making changes     

Christopher Gold 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(2):157-167

Abstract

We attempt to describe the role of tessellated models of space within the discipline of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) – a speciality coming largely out of Geography and Land Surveying, where there was a strong need to represent information about the land’s surface within a computer system rather than on the original paper maps. We look at some of the basic operations in GIS, including dynamic and kinetic applications. We examine issues of topology and data structures, and produced a tessellation model that may be widely applied both to traditional “object” and “field” data types. The Part I of this study examined object and field spatial models, the Voronoi extension of objects, and the graphs that express the resulting adjacencies. The required data structures were also briefly described, along with 2D and 3D structures and hierarchical indexing. The importance of graph duality was emphasized. Here, this second paper builds on the structures described in the first, and examines how these may be modified: change may often be associated with either viewpoint or time. Incremental algorithms permit additional point insertion, and applications involving the addition of skeleton points, for map scanning, contour enrichment or watershed delineation and simulation. Dynamic algorithms permit skeleton smoothing, and higher order Voronoi diagram applications, including Sibson interpolation. Kinetic algorithms allow collision detection applications, free-Lagrange flow modeling, and pen movement simulation for map drawing. If desired these methods may be extended to 3D. Based on this framework, it can be argued that tessellation models are fundamental to our understanding and processing of geographical space, and provide a coherent framework for understanding the “space” in which we exist.  相似文献   

Anthropogenic factors and habitat complexity influence biodiversity but wave exposure drives species turnover of a subtropical rocky inter‐tidal metacommunity          下载免费PDF全文

Christopher P. Bloch  Brian T. Klingbeil 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(1):64-76

Coastal ecosystems are complex and species rich, but are vulnerable to degradation from a variety of anthropogenic activities. Nevertheless, information on inter‐tidal community composition in the Caribbean Basin and at other oceanic sites is lacking. Such information is essential to developing a more comprehensive understanding of rocky inter‐tidal systems and their responses to global change. The goals of this study were to determine the relative importance of environmental (wave power density, wave height), habitat (e.g. algal cover, slope, complexity of rock surfaces) and anthropogenic (distance to roads, population density) factors associated with the structure of local assemblages at multiple shore heights and the regional metacommunity of mobile invertebrates on oceanic rocky inter‐tidal habitats. Environmental characteristics associated with habitat complexity (algal cover, rock surface complexity) and human population density were most strongly associated with abundance and biodiversity of invertebrates. Species richness was positively correlated with surface complexity, but abundance was negatively correlated with both surface complexity and per cent algal cover. By contrast, abundance of invertebrates was positively correlated with human population density, and diversity was negatively correlated with human population density. Abundance of invertebrates was greatest in the mid inter‐tidal zone, whereas diversity was greatest in the lower inter‐tidal zone. Metacommunity structure was Gleasonian, but the gradient along which species turnover occurred was correlated with measures of wave exposure, rather than anthropogenic activity. Unlike in previous studies, mostly at mainland sites, human activity primarily altered dominance patterns of communities, while having relatively little effect on species richness or composition.  相似文献   

Hydrologic testing during drilling: application of the flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logging method to drilling of a deep borehole     

Chin-Fu Tsang  Jan-Erik Rosberg  Prabhakar Sharma  Theo Berthet  Christopher Juhlin  Auli Niemi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(6):1333-1341

Drilling of a deep borehole does not normally allow for hydrologic testing during the drilling period. It is only done when drilling experiences a large loss (or high return) of drilling fluid due to penetration of a large-transmissivity zone. The paper proposes the possibility of conducting flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logging during the drilling period, with negligible impact on the drilling schedule, yet providing important information on depth locations of both high- and low-transmissivity zones and their hydraulic properties. The information can be used to guide downhole fluid sampling and post-drilling detailed testing of the borehole. The method has been applied to the drilling of a 2,500-m borehole at Åre, central Sweden, firstly when the drilling reached 1,600 m, and then when the drilling reached the target depth of 2,500 m. Results unveil eight hydraulically active zones from 300 m down to borehole bottom, with depths determined to within the order of a meter. Further, the first set of data allows the estimation of hydraulic transmissivity values of the six hydraulically conductive zones found from 300 to 1,600 m, which are very low and range over one order of magnitude.  相似文献