An innovative tailored seasonal rainfall forecasting production in Zimbabwe     

Desmond Manatsa  Leonard Unganai  Christopher Gadzirai  Swadhin K. Behera 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1187-1207

Farmers?? adaptation to climate change over southern Africa may become an elusive concept if adequate attention is not rendered to the most important adaptive tool, the regional seasonal forecasting system. Uptake of the convectional seasonal rainfall forecasts issued through the southern African regional climate outlook forum process in Zimbabwe is very low, most probably due to an inherent poor forecast skill and inadequate lead time. Zimbabwe??s recurrent droughts are never in forecast, and the bias towards near normal conditions is almost perpetual. Consequently, the forecasts are poorly valued by the farmers as benefits accrued from these forecasts are minimal. The dissemination process is also very complicated, resulting in the late and distorted reception. The probabilistic nature of the forecast renders it difficult to interpret by the farmers, hence the need to review the whole system. An innovative approach to a regional seasonal forecasting system developed through a participatory process so as to offer a practically possible remedial option is described in this paper. The main added advantage over the convectional forecast is that the new forecast system carries with it, predominantly binary forecast information desperately needed by local farmers??whether a drought will occur in a given season. Hence, the tailored forecast is easier for farmers to understand and act on compared to the conventional method of using tercile probabilities. It does not only provide a better forecasting skill, but gives additional indications of the intra-seasonal distribution of the rainfall including onsets, cessations, wet spell and dry spell locations for specific terciles. The lead time is more than 3?months, which is adequate for the farmers to prepare their land well before the onset of the rains. Its simplicity renders it relatively easy to use, with model inputs only requiring the states of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate modes. The developed forecast system could be one way to enhance management of risks and opportunities in rain-fed agriculture among small-holder farmers not only in Zimbabwe but also throughout the SADC region where the impact of ENSO and/or IOD on a desired station rainfall is significant.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of laptop computers to volcanic ash and gas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Grant Wilson  Thomas Wilson  Jim Cole  Christopher Oze 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):711-736

Laptop computers are vital components of critical infrastructure sectors and a common tool in broader society. As they become more widely used, their exposure to volcanic hazards will increase. Therefore, understanding how laptops will function in volcanic environments is necessary to provide suitable mitigation options. In this study, laptop computers were subjected to volcanic ash and gas in both laboratory and field settings. None of the laptops sustained permanent damage in laboratory experiments; however, ash contamination did reduce the functionality of keyboards, CD drives, and cooling fans. Several laptops shut down temporarily due to overheating following ash contamination. In field experiments, laptops were exposed to high concentrations of volcanic gases at White Island, New Zealand. These laptops did not sustain permanent damage as only a small amount of gas was able to enter the laptops. However, metal components on the outside of the laptop did sustain minor corrosion. Re-examination of the laptops after 6?months indicated they were in full working order. Printed circuit boards suffered significant corrosion damage and ceased working only when in direct and sustained contact with volcanic gases. Simple mitigation techniques such as isolating laptops inside heavy duty polyethylene bags were effective. Overall, our experiments demonstrate that laptops have a relatively low risk of damage from volcanic ash and gas exposure, but have a low-medium risk of loss of functionality in ash environments. We think this has implications for other electronic equipment used extensively in critical infrastructure services.  相似文献   

Apollo 12 Lunar Module exhaust plume impingement on Lunar Surveyor III   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christopher Immer  Paul E. Hintze 《Icarus》2011,211(2):1089-1102

Understanding plume impingement by retrorockets on the surface of the Moon is paramount for safe lunar outpost design in NASA’s planned return to the Moon for the Constellation Program. Visual inspection, Scanning Electron Microscopy, and surface scanned topology have been used to investigate the damage to the Lunar Surveyor III spacecraft that was caused by the Apollo 12 Lunar Module’s close proximity landing. Two parts of the Surveyor III craft returned by the Apollo 12 astronauts, Coupons 2050 and 2051, which faced the Apollo 12 landing site, show that a fine layer of lunar regolith coated the materials and was subsequently removed by the Apollo 12 Lunar Module landing rocket. The coupons were also pitted by the impact of larger soil particles with an average of 103 pits/cm². The average entry size of the pits was 83.7 μm (major diameter) × 74.5 μm (minor diameter) and the average estimated penetration depth was 88.4 μm. Pitting in the surface of the coupons correlates to removal of lunar fines and is likely a signature of lunar material imparting localized momentum/energy sufficient to cause cracking of the paint. Comparison with the lunar soil particle size distribution and the optical density of blowing soil during lunar landings indicates that the Surveyor III spacecraft was not exposed to the direct spray of the landing Lunar Module, but instead experienced only the fringes of the spray of soil. Had Surveyor III been exposed to the direct spray, the damage would have been orders of magnitude higher.  相似文献   

Multi-spacecraft study of foreshock cavitons upstream of the quasi-parallel bow shock     

Primo? Kajdi?  Xochitl Blanco-Cano  Christopher T. Russell 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(8):705-714

In this work we perform the first multi-spacecraft analysis of two foreshock cavitons observed by the Cluster spacecraft. We also study the characteristics of their surrounding regions. Foreshock cavitons are a relatively new type of phenomena in the Earth's foreshock. They appear in regions deep inside the foreshock and are therefore always immersed in a sea of ULF waves and suprathermal particles. In the observational data the cavitons appear as simultaneous depressions of interplanetary magnetic field and plasma density. The two cavitons presented here have highly structured interiors and exhibit surface irregularities. They propagate sunwards in the reference frame of the solar wind plasma. Since their velocities are smaller than the solar wind velocity, the cavitons are convected towards the Earth by the solar wind flow. Their sizes are comparable to the size of the Earth. We show that the cavitons are different from other foreshock phenomena, such as cavities. The latter are thought to form by thermal expansion due to the excess of thermal pressure caused by intense flux of suprathermal ions in their interiors. Thermal pressure inside the cavitons is the same as in their surroundings, so they cannot form in this way. The proposed mechanism for the caviton formation includes nonlinear interactions between different types of ULF waves deep inside the foreshock.  相似文献   

A continuous multi-millennial record of surficial bivalve mollusk shells from the São Paulo Bight,Brazilian shelf     

Troy A. Dexter  Darrell S. Kaufman  Richard A. Krause Jr.  Susan L. Barbour Wood  Marcello G. Simões  John Warren Huntley  Yurena Yanes  Christopher S. Romanek  Michał Kowalewski 《Quaternary Research》2014

To evaluate the potential of using surficial shell accumulations for paleoenvironmental studies, an extensive time series of individually dated specimens of the marine infaunal bivalve mollusk Semele casali was assembled using amino acid racemization (AAR) ratios (n = 270) calibrated against radiocarbon ages (n = 32). The shells were collected from surface sediments at multiple sites across a sediment-starved shelf in the shallow sub-tropical São Paulo Bight (São Paulo State, Brazil). The resulting ¹⁴C-calibrated AAR time series, one of the largest AAR datasets compiled to date, ranges from modern to 10,307 cal yr BP, is right skewed, and represents a remarkably complete time series: the completeness of the Holocene record is 66% at 250-yr binning resolution and 81% at 500-yr binning resolution. Extensive time-averaging is observed for all sites across the sampled bathymetric range indicating long water depth-invariant survival of carbonate shells at the sediment surface with low net sedimentation rates. Benthic organisms collected from active depositional surfaces can provide multi-millennial time series of biomineral records and serve as a source of geochemical proxy data for reconstructing environmental and climatic trends throughout the Holocene at centennial resolution. Surface sediments can contain time-rich shell accumulations that record the entire Holocene, not just the present.  相似文献   

The spatial and temporal distribution of grain‐size breaks in turbidites     

Christopher J. Stevenson  Peter J. Talling  Douglas G. Masson  Esther J. Sumner  Michael Frenz  Russell B. Wynn 《Sedimentology》2014,61(4):1120-1156

Grain‐size breaks are surfaces where abrupt changes in grain size occur vertically within deposits. Grain‐size breaks are common features in turbidites around the world, including ancient and modern systems. Despite their widespread occurrence, grain‐size breaks have been regarded as exceptional, and not included within idealized models of turbidity current deposition. This study uses ca 100 shallow sediment cores, from the Moroccan Turbidite System, to map out five turbidite beds for distances in excess of 2000 km. The vertical and spatial distributions of grain‐size breaks within these beds are examined. Five different types of grain‐size break are found: Type I – in proximal areas between coarse sand and finer grained structureless sand; Type II – in proximal areas between inversely graded sand overlain by finer sand; Type III – in proximal areas between sand overlain by ripple cross‐laminated finer sand; Type IV – throughout the system between clean sand and mud; and Type V – in distal areas between mud‐rich (debrite) sand and mud. This article interprets Types I and V as being generated by sharp vertical concentration boundaries, controlled by sediment and clay concentrations within the flows, whilst Types II and III are interpreted as products of spatial/temporal fluctuations in flow capacity. Type IV are interpreted as the product of fluid mud layers, which hinder the settling of non‐cohesive grains and bypasses them down slope. Decelerating suspensions with sufficient clay will always form cohesive layers near to bed, promoting the generation of Type IV grain‐size breaks. This may explain why Type IV grain‐size breaks are widespread in all five turbidites examined and are commonplace within turbidite sequences studied elsewhere. Therefore, Type IV grain‐size breaks should be understood as the norm, not the exception, and regarded as a typical feature within turbidite beds.  相似文献   

Recognizing products of palaeoclimate fluctuation in the fluvial stratigraphic record: An example from the Pennsylvanian to Lower Permian of Cape Breton Island,Nova Scotia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonathan P. Allen  Christopher R. Fielding  Martin R. Gibling  Michael C. Rygel 《Sedimentology》2014,61(5):1332-1381

Tectonics and climate are the major extrinsic upstream controls on both the external and internal architectures of fluvial channels. While the role of tectonics has been well‐documented, the role of climate has received less attention. Because both tectonics and climate can produce similar stratigraphic architectures, the ability to recognize and differentiate these has major ramifications for the interpretation of fluvial stratigraphy. The Pennsylvanian to Permian succession of the Maritimes Basin complex on Cape Breton Island is ca 5 km thick, and is composed of predominantly non‐marine strata deposited within a series of depocentres characterized by different subsidence regimes. Basins in the west are transtensional depocentres characterized by episodic fault movement. In contrast, basins in the east were formed during prolonged periods of passive thermal subsidence. The stratigraphy is composed of four second‐order sequences (A to D), each 5 to 10 Myr in duration. These sequences are composed of amalgamated fluvial channel deposits that fine upwards into extensive mud‐dominated floodplain deposits with isolated fluvial channel bodies. A spectrum of fluvial styles is recorded within the study area including perennial, perennial/intermittent and ephemeral. Four stratigraphic intervals (E1 to E4) are recognized in which the deposits of strongly seasonal perennial/intermittent fluvial deposits are predominant. These intervals, 2 to 6 Myr in duration, are correlated across the study area between basins with differing tectonic regimes and do not correlate with a particular position in second‐order sequences. This suggests that climate exerted the dominant influence on the formation of these intervals and can be differentiated from tectonic imprints. While the tectonic regime of a particular basin exerted a fundamental control on the external architecture, a coherent record of climate change is recognized in the internal architecture of fluvial units. This study demonstrates that tectonic and climatic controls can be recognized and differentiated in vertical successions by evaluating the changes in fluvial architecture.  相似文献   

1956—2008年鄱阳湖流域水沙输移趋势及成因分析          下载免费PDF全文

罗蔚  张翔  邓志民  陈龙  Christopher J Gippel 《水科学进展》2014,25(5):658-667

利用鄱阳湖流域代表性水文站1956—2008年实测年径流量及年输沙量资料序列,采用Mann-Kendall秩相关检验法,研究鄱阳湖流域水沙量年际变化趋势和可能发生突变的时间,并从流域降雨、用水、水库拦沙、水土流失及其治理等方面分析了鄱阳湖流域水沙变化的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖地区来水量和出湖水量有小幅增大趋势;鄱阳湖流域来沙量呈异常显著减小趋势,发生突变的年份为1998—1999年;实测出湖沙量从2002年开始呈明显的减少趋势。通过对有关影响因素的研究,发现鄱阳湖流域气候变化降雨量减少对近10年鄱阳湖出入湖径流量的减少影响显著;水库滞沙是鄱阳湖入湖沙量减少的主要原因;出湖沙量变化主要受上游水库群的影响,还有近年湖区采砂的影响。  相似文献   

Fine-Scale Detection of Estuarine Water Quality with Managed Freshwater Releases     

Christopher Buzzelli  Brian Boutin  Mayra Ashton  Barbara Welch  Patricia Gorman  Yongshan Wan  Peter Doering 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(5):1134-1144

Freshwater pulses to subtropical estuaries often occur on time scales less than 1 week. In particular, introduction of low-level pulses are potentially important during the dry season (November–April) when freshwater is scarce. Determining potential ecological benefits of pulses requires an innovative method of data acquisition at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The South Florida Water Management District conducted a pilot study to assess changes in water column attributes with pulse releases to the Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) from January to April 2012. An average inflow of 450 cfs was targeted for a series of freshwater pulses. This study utilized an onboard, flow-through system to record surface water temperature, salinity (S), pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and in situ chlorophyll a (in situ CHL) at 5 s intervals along the 42-km length of the estuary. On each of seven research cruises, the vessel stopped at multiple stations to conduct vertical water column profiles. Salinity increased throughout the CRE as inflow decreased during the study period. Simple correlation and partial least squares regression were used to determine that the downstream locations of the S?=?10 isohaline and the maximum CHL concentration (in situ CHL_max) were positively related to inflow. While the in situ CHL_max was located 12–20 km downstream on five of the cruises, it was only a few kilometer from the estuary head on the first (1/12) and last (4/11) dates. It is possible that two circumstances related to freshwater inflow accounted for this pattern. First, water column stratification before January could have stimulated remineralization and primary production. Second, inflow ceased as water temperature increased to 26.0 °C by April to promote algal growth. Further study of the relationships among inflow, water level, flushing time, and CHL is warranted. Future efforts will examine the range of wet season discharge by incorporating a sensor for colored dissolved organic matter to fully connect inflow, salinity, submarine light, and phytoplankton attributes in the CRE.  相似文献   

Response of Lake Pontchartrain Fish Assemblages to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita     

Martin T. O’Connell  Ann M. U. O’Connell  Christopher S. Schieble 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(2):461-475

To assess possible impacts on Lake Pontchartrain fishes from the 2005 hurricanes, we compared trawl, beach seine, and gillnet collections taken before (2000–2003, 2005) and after (2006–2009) to determine if significant assemblage changes occurred. We also compared basic environmental variables to test for hurricane-related changes. Significant post-hurricane changes in fish assemblages occurred in trawl (analysis of similarity (ANOSIM), R?<?0.090, p?<?0.05) and beach seine (ANOSIM, R?<?0.120, p?<?0.05) collections across all seasons. Gillnet assemblages exhibited changes in only one season (ANOSIM, R?=?0.045, p?<?0.05). These consistently low global R values (all R?<?0.120) across all gears suggest only minor compositional changes in species. When peak abundance periods were compared for individual species, Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) declined in trawl collections after the hurricanes (Friedman's test, χ ²?=?6.00, p?=?0.014) but increased in gillnet collections (Friedman's test, χ ²?=?5.00, p?=?0.025). Hardhead catfish (Ariopsis felis) increased in trawl collections, but Gulf pipefish (Syngnathus scovelli), naked gobies (Gobiosoma bosc), and rough silverside (Membras martinica) all declined in beach seine samples and Atlantic croakers (Micropogonias undulatus), Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus maculatus), and sand seatrout (Cynoscion arenarius) all declined in gillnet samples. In general, salinity increased and water clarity and dissolved oxygen decreased after the hurricanes. While the overall composition of Lake Pontchartrain fish assemblages remains stable, the significant decline of some species and changes in certain environmental variables are cause for concern. Future monitoring should determine if all elements of this estuary will recover from these impacts.  相似文献