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At various stages of petroleum reservoir development, we encounter a large degree of geological uncertainty under which a rational decision has to be made. In order to identify which parameter or group of parameters significantly affects the output of a decision model, we investigate decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis and its computational issues in this paper. In particular, we employ the so-called expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) as a sensitivity index and apply multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to efficient estimation of EVPPI. In a recent paper by Giles and Goda, an antithetic MLMC estimator for EVPPI is proposed and its variance analysis is conducted under some assumptions on a decision model. In this paper, for an improvement on the performance of the MLMC estimator, we incorporate randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods within the inner sampling, which results in an multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) estimator. We apply both the antithetic MLMC and MLQMC estimators to a simple waterflooding decision problem under uncertainty on absolute permeability and relative permeability curves. Through numerical experiments, we compare the performances of the MLMC and MLQMC estimators and confirm a significant advantage of the MLQMC estimator.  相似文献   
144.
The stability and equation of state for the cotunnite phase in TiO2 were investigated up to a pressure of about 70 GPa by high-pressure in situ X-ray diffraction measurements using a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. The transition sequence under high pressure was rutile → α-PbO2 phase → baddeleyite phase → OI phase → cotunnite phase with increasing pressure. The cotunnite phase was the most stable phase at pressures from 40 GPa to at least 70 GPa. The equation of state parameters for the cotunnite phase were established on the platinum scale using the volume data at pressures of 37–68 GPa after laser annealing, in which the St value, an indicator of the magnitude of the uniaxial stress component in the samples, indicates that these measurements were performed under quasi-hydrostatic conditions. The third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state at K 0′ = 4.25 yields V 0 = 15.14(5) cm3/mol and K 0 = 294(9), and the second-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state yields V 0 = 15.11(5) cm3/mol and K 0 = 306(9). Therefore, we conclude that the bulk modulus for the cotunnite phase is not comparable to that of diamond.  相似文献   
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The ratios of phosphorus and nitrogen originating from land and the open ocean in the Seto Inland Sea, which is the largest semi-enclosed coastal sea in Japan, have been estimated from data on total phosphorus and nitrogen loads and observed concentrations of total phosphorus and nitrogen. The ratios of land-origin and open-ocean-origin total phosphorus and nitrogen in the Seto Inland Sea are 0.28:0.72 and 0.19:0.81, respectively.  相似文献   
147.
We investigated the sea level response of the Japan Sea to changes in atmospheric pressure using barotropic shallow water models driven by idealized synoptic pressure forcing. The regional response lags behind the synoptic pressure forcing because the adjustment is slowly established by water exchange through narrow, shallow straits. The sea level response of the realistic Japan Sea to the idealized forcing varies with geographical location and shows zonally asymmetric variations in amplitude and phase. The simulated response is in good agreement with the observed response of sea level recorded at Japanese coastal tide gauges. The results of a simple one-dimensional model indicate that the zonally asymmetric pattern, with an eastward-propagating pressure system, is essentially caused by bottom friction in shallow straits. This asymmetry arises if the typical wavelength of the synoptic pressure system is slightly larger than the spatial scale of the Japan Sea.  相似文献   
148.
The physical parameters that affect the formation of Pele's hair and Pele's tears during lava fountaining are discussed. Experiments on ink jets produced from a nozzle under different Weber number (We) and Reynolds number (Re) show the following results: if (Re) is relatively large compared with (We), an ink droplet is produced. However, if (Re) is relatively small and (We) is large, the spurting ink becomes thread-like. I define the Pele number (Pe) as (We)/(Re), which is expressed as v/0, where v is the spuring velocity from an erupting vent, and are viscosity and interfacial tension of the erupting magma, and and 0 are density of air and magma. The experimental results from ink jets suggest that Pele's hair will be produced for larger (Pe), while Pele's tears are very likely produced for relatively small (Pe). I conclude that Pele's hair could be produced when the spurting velocity of erupting magmas is high, and Pele's tears when it is relatively low. As an additional point of interest, the similarity of SEM photographs of the characteristic shape of Pele's hair to those of the failed products of commercial glass fibre are shown.  相似文献   
149.
A simple field‐based monitoring programme was established in a small catchment (area 4·6 km2) to find the rates of gully erosion in the Siwalik Hills, Nepal. The rates are used to estimate the amount of sediment produced by gully erosion in the catchment. Three large and active gullies were selected with areas ranging from 0·44 to 0·78 ha. Aerial photographs taken in 1964, 1978 and 1992 were ortho‐rectified and used to study the dynamics of gully heads. The same gullies were also monitored manually using an orthogonal reference system fixed by erosion pins around the gully heads. Results from the aerial photos indicated that the gullies expanded remarkably over the period from 1964 to 1992, by 34 to 58 per cent. Head‐retreat rates during that period were 0·48, 0·55 and 0·73 m a?1 and average annual sediment evacuation was estimated as 2534 ± 171, 959 ± 60 and 2783 ± 118 m3 a?1 for the three gullies respectively. From the field measurement, estimated volumes were found to vary from 731 ± 57 to 2793 ± 201 m3 a?1 over the monitoring period of two years. It was also found that the gullies produce sediment which accounts for up to 59 per cent of the sediment produced from surface erosion in the headwater catchment. The findings are useful for planning and executing appropriate control measures and constructing a sediment hazard map at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
150.
Fe-Mg interdiffusivities in (Fe,Mg)O magnesiowüstite have been measured in experiments conducted at pressures of 7-35 GPa and temperatures of 1573-1973 K using a Kawai-type high-pressure apparatus. The diffusion profiles were measured across the interface between MgO and (Fe0.5,Mg0.5)O samples by electron microprobe analysis, and the Fe-Mg interdiffusivities were determined as DFe-Mg=D0exp{−E*(1+PV*Mg/E*Mg)/RT}, where D0=4.1(+16.1−3.3)×10−7 m2/s, E*=(1−CMg)E*Fe+CMgE*Mg (activation energy for the concentration of Mg, where E*Fe=113(±74) kJ/mol and E*Mg=226(±32) kJ/mol), the activation volume V*Mg=1.8(±1.2)×10−6 m3/mol. By extrapolating these results to the P-T conditions of the core-mantle boundary, we conclude that the interdiffusivity of Fe-Mg in magnesiowüstite at the bottom of the lower mantle is at least one order of magnitude larger than that at the top of the lower mantle.  相似文献   
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