Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for reservoir development under uncertainty using multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo methods     

Takashi Goda  Daisuke Murakami  Kei Tanaka  Kozo Sato 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(4):1009-1020

At various stages of petroleum reservoir development, we encounter a large degree of geological uncertainty under which a rational decision has to be made. In order to identify which parameter or group of parameters significantly affects the output of a decision model, we investigate decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis and its computational issues in this paper. In particular, we employ the so-called expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) as a sensitivity index and apply multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to efficient estimation of EVPPI. In a recent paper by Giles and Goda, an antithetic MLMC estimator for EVPPI is proposed and its variance analysis is conducted under some assumptions on a decision model. In this paper, for an improvement on the performance of the MLMC estimator, we incorporate randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods within the inner sampling, which results in an multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) estimator. We apply both the antithetic MLMC and MLQMC estimators to a simple waterflooding decision problem under uncertainty on absolute permeability and relative permeability curves. Through numerical experiments, we compare the performances of the MLMC and MLQMC estimators and confirm a significant advantage of the MLQMC estimator.  相似文献   

The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami: Similarities and Differences to the 869 Jogan Tsunami on the Sendai Plain   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daisuke Sugawara  Fumihiko Imamura  Kazuhisa Goto  Hideaki Matsumoto  Koji Minoura 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(5):831-843

A post-tsunami field survey following the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami was carried out to asses inundated area in Sendai Plain, Northeast Japan. The type of inundation was classified into two categories (major and minor) according to the amount of accumulated debris, garbage and sediment. Major and minor inundations were identified up to 4 and 5 km from the coastline, respectively. Many artificial geomorphological features, such as roadway embankments and canals, were believed to have affected the run-up process of the tsunami. The inundation area of the 2011 tsunami on the Sendai Plain is compared with that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, which was reconstructed using numerical modeling based on available historical and geological records. The inundation area of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami is comparable to that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, although a direct comparison is difficult due to differences in geomorphological contexts between the paleo period and the present.  相似文献   

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes     

Taketo Shimano  Takeshi Nishimura  Nobuyuki Chiga  Yoshinobu Shibasaki  Masato Iguchi  Daisuke Miki  Akihiko Yokoo 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2013,75(12):1-7

We develop an automatic system for the sampling of ash fall particles, to be used for continuous monitoring of magma ascent and eruptive dynamics at active volcanoes. The system consists of a sampling apparatus and cameras to monitor surface phenomena during eruptions. The Sampling Apparatus for Time Series Unmanned Monitoring of Ash (SATSUMA-I and SATSUMA-II) is less than 10 kg in weight and works automatically for more than a month with a 10-kg lead battery to obtain a total of 30 to 36 samples in one cycle of operation. The time range covered in one cycle varies from less than an hour to several months, depending on the aims of observation, allowing researchers to target minute-scale fluctuations in a single eruptive event, as well as daily to weekly trends in persistent volcanic activity. The latest version, SATSUMA-II, also enables control of sampling parameters remotely by e-mail commands. Durability of the apparatus is high: our prototypes worked for several months, in rainy and typhoon seasons, at windy and humid locations, and under strong sunlight. We have been successful in collecting ash samples emitted from Showa crater almost everyday for more than 4 years (2008–2012) at Sakurajima volcano in southwest Japan.  相似文献   

The stability and equation of state for the cotunnite phase of TiO2 up to 70 GPa     

Daisuke Nishio-Hamane  Asa Shimizu  Ritsuko Nakahira  Ken Niwa  Asami Sano-Furukawa  Taku Okada  Takehiko Yagi  Takumi Kikegawa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2010,37(3):129-136

The stability and equation of state for the cotunnite phase in TiO₂ were investigated up to a pressure of about 70 GPa by high-pressure in situ X-ray diffraction measurements using a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. The transition sequence under high pressure was rutile → α-PbO₂ phase → baddeleyite phase → OI phase → cotunnite phase with increasing pressure. The cotunnite phase was the most stable phase at pressures from 40 GPa to at least 70 GPa. The equation of state parameters for the cotunnite phase were established on the platinum scale using the volume data at pressures of 37–68 GPa after laser annealing, in which the St value, an indicator of the magnitude of the uniaxial stress component in the samples, indicates that these measurements were performed under quasi-hydrostatic conditions. The third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state at K ₀′ = 4.25 yields V ₀ = 15.14(5) cm³/mol and K ₀ = 294(9), and the second-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state yields V ₀ = 15.11(5) cm³/mol and K ₀ = 306(9). Therefore, we conclude that the bulk modulus for the cotunnite phase is not comparable to that of diamond.  相似文献