Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Daniel G. Brown  Derek T. Robinson  Li An  Moira Zellner  William Rand  Rick Riolo  Bobbi Low 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):805-818

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.  相似文献   

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939     

Gregory P. Marchildon  Suren Kulshreshtha  Elaine Wheaton  Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.  相似文献   

CHANGING RURAL SETTLEMENT PATTERNS IN ARCTIC ALASKA*     

Ralph C. Brown 《The Professional geographer》1969,21(5):324-327

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Fish school acoustic target strength     

Davies  Isaac E.; Vent  Robert J.; Brown  John C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1977,37(3):288-292

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Mussels document loss of bioavailable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the return to baseline conditions for oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound, Alaska     

Page DS  Boehm PD  Brown JS  Neff JM  Burns WA  Bence AE 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(4):422-436

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected between 1990 and 2002 from 11 sites on the shores of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, that were heavily oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). This study, utilizing the methods of the NOAA Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program, found that concentrations of PAH released from spill remnants have decreased dramatically with time and by 2002 were at or near the range of total PAH (TPAH) of 3-355 ng/g dry weight obtained for mussels from unoiled reference sites in PWS. Time-series TPAH data indicate a mean TPAH half-life in mussel tissues of 2.4 years with a range from 1.4 to 5.3, yielding an annual mean loss of bioaccumulated TPAH of 25%. The petroleum-derived TPAH fraction in mussel tissues has decreased with time, reflecting the decreasing release of EVOS residues in shoreline sediments. These results show that PAH from EVOS residues that remain buried in shoreline sediments after the early 1990s are in a form and at locations that have a low accessibility to mussels living in the intertidal zone.  相似文献   

Vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum during a red tide in a shallow lagoon     

Domenico Voltolina  Leslie N. Brown  Maurice G. Robinson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(6):817-822

The results of eight sets of repeated observations on the vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum layer in a shallow lagoon during a red tide show that these were more frequently hydrologically induced, rather than due to active vertical migrations of the red tide-forming organism. These results are discussed and compared to those existing in the literature, with special regard to the role of light and nitrogen in conditioning vertical migrations in red tide-forming dinoflagellates.  相似文献   

Effects of prolonged exposure to 4-tert-octylphenol on toxicity and indices of oestrogenic exposure in the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus, Pallas)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Robinson CD  Brown E  Craft JA  Davies IM  Moffat CF 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(1):19-38

Alkylphenolic compounds are present in estuarine and marine environments. They are moderately bioaccumulative, and oestrogenic to fish following three week, in vivo, exposures. The effects of prolonged exposure are, as yet, unclear. Sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus) were exposed to measured concentrations of 4-tert-octylphenol (OP) in a 28-day, dose-ranging study, and a six month temporal response study. Following 28-days exposure to measured 31+/-6 or 101+/-47 microg l(-1) OP (mean+/-SD), immature male sand goby showed elevated vitellogenin (VTG) mRNA expression. Plasma alkali-labile phosphate concentrations were elevated in both sexes and were higher in females than males. Although measured OP concentrations were variable, they were significantly different for each treatment and a range of concentration-dependent effects were observed. The LC(50) for chronic OP exposure (8 weeks) was 29+/-6 microg l(-1), and both sexes demonstrated concentration and duration dependent increases in VTG mRNA expression. Exposure to 28+/-20 microg l(-1) OP (median+/-95% CI) for 6 months inhibited development of male nuptial colouration and sperm duct glands. These findings are discussed in relation to environmental concentrations of alkylphenols and ecological concerns.  相似文献   

The legal regime of islands in inter national law : Derek W. Bowett Oceana Publications Inc, Dobbs Ferry, New York, Sijthoff and Noordhoff, Alphen aan den Rijn, Netherlands, 1979, 337 pp, $30.00     

E. D. Brown 《Marine Policy》1980,4(4):333-334

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Estimation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus L., 1758) and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L., 1758) daily egg production outside the standard ICES survey area     

Dransfeld  Leonie; Dwane  Oonagh; Molloy  John; Gallagher  Sarah; Reid  Dave G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(8):1705-1710

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Simulating trawl herding in flatfish: the role of fish length in behaviour and swimming characteristics   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Winger  Paul D.; Walsh  Stephen J.; He  Pingguo; Brown  Joseph A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(7):1179-1185

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