Predicting the Arrival Time of Shock Passages at Earth   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chin-Chun?WuEmail author  C.?D.?Fry  D.?Berdichevsky  M.?Dryer  Z.?Smith  T.?Detman 《Solar physics》2005,227(2):371-386

The purpose of this parametric study is to predict the arrival time at Earth of shocks due to disturbances observed on the Sun. A 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation code is used to simulate the evolution of these disturbances as they propagate out to 1 AU. The model in Han, Wu and Dryer (1988) uses solar data for input at 0.08 AU (18 solar radii). The initial shock speed (ISS) is assumed to be constant from the corona to 0.08 AU. We investigate how variations of this ISS affect the arrival times of the shock at Earth. This basic parametric study, however, does not consider inhomogeneous background solar wind structures such as corotating interaction regions and their precursor stream–stream interactions, nor interplanetary manifestations of complex coronal mass ejecta such as magnetic clouds. In the latter case, only their associated shocks are considered. Because the ambient (pre-existing background) solar wind speed is known to affect the shock arrival time at 1 AU, we also simulated events with various background solar wind speeds (BSWS) to investigate this effect. The results show that the shock arrival time at Earth depends on the BSWS, the speed of solar disturbances, their size, and their source location at the Sun. However, it is found that for a sufficiently large momentum input, the shock arrival time at Earth is not significantly affected by the pre-existing solar wind speed.  相似文献   

A white-light/Fe X/Hα coronal transient observation to 10 solar RadII     

W. J. Wagner  R. M. E. Illing  C. B. Sawyer  L. L. House  N. R. Sheeley Jr.  R. A. Howard  M. J. Koomen  D. J. Michels  R. N. Smartt  M. Dryer 《Solar physics》1983,83(1):153-166

Multi-telescope observations of the coronal transient of 15–16 April, 1980 provide simultaneous data from the Solar Maximum Mission Coronagraph/Polarimeter, the Solwind Coronagraph, and the new Emission Line Coronagraph of the Sacramento Peak Observatory. An eruptive prominence-associated white light transient is for the first time seen as an unusual wave or brightening in Fe x gl6374 (but not in Fe xiv gl5303). Several interpretations of this fleeting enhancement are offered.The prominence shows a slowly increasing acceleration which peaks at the time of the Fe event. The white light loop transient surrounding the prominence expands at a well-documented constant speed to 10R , with an extrapolated start time at zero height coincident with the surface activity.This loop transient exemplifies those seen above 1.7R in that leading the disturbance is a bright (N _e-enhanced) loop rather than dark. This is consistent with a report of the behavior of another eruptive event observed by Fisher and Poland (1981) which began as a density depletion in the lower corona, with a bright loop forming at greater altitudes. The top of the bright loop ultimately fades in the outer corona while slow radial growth continues in the legs.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

The solar flares of February 1986 and the ensuing intense geomagnetic storm     

Howard A. Garcia  Murray Dryer 《Solar physics》1971,109(1):119-137

A very intense geomagnetic storm, the largest observed in 26 years, was observed in early February 1986 having just been preceded by a series of six solar flares during the period 3–7 February. The storm and its antecedent flares are currently a subject of great interest because of the unusually large magnitude of the various geomagnetic effects that obtained. The fact that the flares were moderate to large in soft X-ray intensity, but much smaller than the largest that the Sun is capable of producing, coupled with the fact that these events occurred near the minimum of the current solar activity cycle, adds to the uniqueness of the overall episode.This paper describes the special circumstances surrounding these events and offers an interpretation of the cause and effect relationships through a numerical simulation of the dynamical evolutionary processes that may have occurred in interplanetary space.  相似文献   

The solar flares of February 1986 and the ensuing intense geomagnetic storm     

Howard A. Garcia  Murray Dryer 《Solar physics》1987,109(1):119-137

A very intense geomagnetic storm, the largest observed in 26 years, was observed in early February 1986 having just been preceded by a series of six solar flares during the period 3–7 February. The storm and its antecedent flares are currently a subject of great interest because of the unusually large magnitude of the various geomagnetic effects that obtained. The fact that the flares were moderate to large in soft X-ray intensity, but much smaller than the largest that the Sun is capable of producing, coupled with the fact that these events occurred near the minimum of the current solar activity cycle, adds to the uniqueness of the overall episode. This paper describes the special circumstances surrounding these events and offers an interpretation of the cause and effect relationships through a numerical simulation of the dynamical evolutionary processes that may have occurred in interplanetary space.  相似文献   

Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the coronal transient associated with the solar limb flare of 1980, June 29, 18∶21 UT     

S. T. Wu  S. Wang  M. Dryer  A. I. Poland  D. G. Sime  C. J. Wolfson  L. E. Orwig  A. Maxwell 《Solar physics》1983,85(2):351-373

Soft X-ray data from the XRP experiment on SMM are used to generate the temperature and density in the flaring region of the 1980, June 29 (18∶21 UT) solar flare. The temporal data (T _max ～- 20 × 10⁶ K and n _max ～- 4 × 10¹¹ cm^?3), together with an assumed velocity, are used to simulate mass injection as the input pulse for the MHD model of Wu et al. (1982a, 1983a). The spatial and temporal coronal response is compared with the ground-based, Mark III K-coronameter observations of the subsequent coronal transient. The simulation produces a spatially-wide, large amplitude, temporarily-steepened MHD wave for either of the two ‘canonical’ magnetic topologies (closed and open), but no shock wave. This result appears to be confirmed by the fact that a type II radio event was observed late in the event for only a few minutes, thereby indicating that a steepening wave with temporary, marginal shock formation, was indeed present. The density enhancements produced by the simulation move away from the Sun at the same velocity observed by the K-coronameter. However, the observation of the coronal transient included a rarefaction that does not appear in the simulation. A probable explanation for this discrepancy is the likelihood that the magnitude and temporal profile of the density of the soft X-ray emitting plasma should not have been used as part of the mass injection pulse. We believe that the temperature profile alone, as suggested by earlier simulations, might have been a necessary and sufficient condition to produce both the compression and rarefaction of the ambient corona as indicated by the K-coronameter data. Hence, the dense plasma observed by XRP was probably confined, for the most part, close to the Sun during the ～ 17 min duration of the observations.  相似文献   

Origin of Coronal Shocks without Mass Ejections     

A. Shanmugaraju  Y.-J. Moon  K.-S. Cho  M. Dryer  S. Umapathy 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):117-127

We present an analysis of all the events (around 400) of coronal shocks for which the shock-associated metric type IIs were observed by many spectrographs during the period April 1997– December 2000. The main objective of this analysis is to give evidence for the type IIs related to only flare-blast waves, and thus to find out whether there are any type II-associated coronal shocks without mass ejections. By carefully analyzing the data from multi-wavelength observations (Radio, GOES X-ray, Hα, SOHO/LASCO and SOHO/EIT-EUV data), we have identified only 30 events for which there were actually no reports of CMEs. Then from the analysis of the LASCO and EIT running difference images, we found that there are some shocks (nearly 40%, 12/30) which might be associated with weak and narrow mass ejections. These weak and narrow ejections were not reported earlier. For the remaining 60% events (18/30), there are no mass ejections seen in SOHO/LASCO. But all of them are associated with flares and EIT brightenings. Pre-assuming that these type IIs are related to the flares, and from those flare locations of these 18 cases, 16 events are found to occur within the central region of the solar disk (longitude ≤45^∘). In this case, the weak CMEs originating from this region are unlikely to be detected by SOHO/LASCO due to low scattering. The remaining two events occurred beyond this longitudinal limit for which any mass ejections would have been detected if they were present. For both these events, though there are weak eruption features (EIT dimming and loop displacement) in the EIT images, no mass ejection was seen in LASCO for one event, and a CME appeared very late for the other event. While these two cases may imply that the coronal shocks can be produced without any mass ejections, we cannot deny the strong relationship between type IIs and CMEs.  相似文献   

Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of interplanetary disturbances between the Sun and Earth     

M. Dryer  S. T. Wu  G. Gislason  S. M. Han  Z. K. Smith  J. F. Wang  D. F. Smart  M. A. Shea 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1984,105(1):187-208

A time-dependent, nonplanar, two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic computer model is used to simulate a series, separately examined, of solar flare-generated shock waves and their subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space between the Sun and the Earth's magnetosphere. The ‘canonical’ or ansatz series of shock waves include initial velocities near the Sun over the range 500 to 3500 km s^?1. The ambient solar wind, through which they propagate, is taken to be a steady-state homogeneous plasma (that is, independent of heliolongitude) with a representative set of plasma and magnetic field parameters. Complete sets of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are presented and discussed. Particular attention is addressed to the MHD model's ability to address fundamental operational questions vis-à-vis the long-range forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances. These questions are: (i) will a disturbance (such as the present canonical series of solar flare shock waves) produce a magnetospheric and ionospheric disturbance, and, if so, (ii) when will it start, (iii) how severe will it be, and (iv) how long will it last? The model's output is used to compute various solar wind indices of current interest as a demonstration of the model's potential for providing ‘answers’ to these questions.  相似文献   

MHD simulations of solar and interplanetary phenomena     

M. Dryer 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,243(1):133-140

Workers in the field of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have been interested in the hypothesis that observed solar activities can be utilized in a deterministic way to predict the bulk flow consequences of these activities in the three-dimensional heliosphere. Exploration of this hypothesis, using the conventional/classic initial boundary value approach, will be reviewed against the background of basic, ideal (except for shocks) one-fluid approximations. This work has been divided into two parts: near-Sun simulations in two dimensions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as well as interplanetary simulations in 2D and 3D of propagating shocks. In the latter case, the flows behind the shocks should be thought of as interplanetary ICMEs, i.e., the interplanetary, evolutionary consequences of the near-Sun simulations.Initialization of these simulations has been based on observations (optical, soft X-ray, radio) from both ground-and space-based instruments. Simulation outputs have been compared within situ plasma and field observations and interplanetary scintillations (IPS). Improvements in the initialization procedures — spatial/temporal variations of solar plasma and field parameters at the coronal base — are expected from YOHKOH, SOHO, CORONAS-I, and TRACE experiments. Ground truth observations from WIND, SOHO, ACE, and INTERBALL experiments should then be compared with three-dimensional MHD outputs in tests of the fluid hypothesis noted above.  相似文献   

Partial analysis of the flare-prominence of 30 April 1974     

S. T. Wu  Murray Dryer  Patrick S. McIntosh  Edwin Reichmann 《Solar physics》1975,44(1):117-133

A portion of an east limb flare-prominence observed in Hα by NOAA/Boulder and NASA/ MSFC patrol facilities on 30 April 1974 is analyzed. Following a rapid (～2 min) achievement of a maximum mass ejection velocity of about 375 km s^?1, the ascending prominence reached a height of, at least, 2 × 10⁵ km. We use a one-dimensional, time-dependent hydrodynamic theory (Nakagawa et al., 1975) to compute the total mass (～2 × 10¹¹ g) and energy (～4 × 10²⁶erg) ejected during this part of this event. Theoretical aspects of the coronal response are discussed. We conclude that a moderate temperature and density pulse (factors of ten and two, respectively), for a duration of only 3 min, is sufficient for an acceptable simulation of the Hα observations and the likely coronal response to the ascending prominence and flare-related ejections. No attempt was made to simulate the additionally-important spray and surge features which probably contributed a higher level of mass and energy efflux.  相似文献   

A linear MHD instability analysis of solar mass ejections with gravitation     

M. T. Song  S. T. Wu  M. Dryer 《Solar physics》1987,108(2):347-382

Solar mass ejections seem, on the basis of many observations, to be divided into two categories: stable and unstable. We use linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability of a cylindrical plasma in an attempt to search for a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon. The dispersion relation is obtained and solved numerically. It is found that the initial plasma-flow velocity has a significant effect on the instability criteria and growth rate. Also found is that the instability growth-rate is much larger in those cases where plasma flow exists in comparison with the static case. The wave number range where the instability may occur also becomes wider with plasma flow. Further, it is shown that the region of the instability shifts to the short wavelength region with increasing plasma-flow velocity. Therefore, the plasma column may break into small pieces, resembling the melon seed phenomenon that has been suggested as a mechanism for mass ejection in the solar atmosphere. Under the assumption of a thin-tube approximation we show that gravity has little effect on the instability of quasi-horizontal ejection, but it has considerable effect for the vertical ejection. In order to deal with the gravitational force it is convenient to divide the problem into three cases: horizontal, vertical, and oblique. The exact analytical solution exists only in the vertical case. Asymptotic solutions are given in the horizontal and oblique cases.  相似文献