排序方式： 共有56条查询结果，搜索用时 31 毫秒
31.
Stefanie Seubert Sonia Fernández-Montes Andreas Philipp Elke Hertig Jucundus Jacobeit Gernot Vogt Andreas Paxian Heiko Paeth 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):257-275
The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe. 相似文献
32.
Ditte Strebel Bo Elberling Elke Morgner Heike E. Knicker & Elisabeth J. Cooper 《Polar research》2010,29(1):46-57
The influence of goose grazing intensity and open-topped chambers (OTCs) on near-surface quantities and qualities of soil organic carbon (SOC) was evaluated in wet and mesic ecosystems in Svalbard. This study followed up a field experiment carried out in 2003–05 (part of the project Fragility of Arctic Goose Habitat: Impacts of Land Use, Conservation and Elevated Temperatures). New measurements of soil CO2 effluxes, temperatures and water contents were regularly made from July to November 2007. SOC stocks were quantified, and the reactivity and composition measured by basal soil respiration (BSR) and solid-state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Results reveal variations in soil carbon cycling, with significant seasonal trends controlled by temperature, water content and snow. Experimental warming (OTCs) increased near-surface temperatures in the growing season, resulting in significantly higher CO2 effluxes. Different grazing intensities had no significant effects on observed soil respiration, but BSR rates at the mesic site (13–23 µg CO2 g soil-C−1 h−1 ) were highest with moderate grazing and lowest in the absence of grazing. A limited effect of grazing on microbial respiration is consistent with a lack of significant differences in SOC quantity and quality. NMR data show that the composition of A-horizon SOC is dominated by O-N-alkyl C and alkyl C groups, and less by carboxyl C and aromatic C groups: but again no marked variation in response to grazing was evident. It can be concluded that two years after a goose grazing experiment, SOC cycling was less than the natural variation within contrasting vegetation types. 相似文献
33.
34.
Sebastian Menke Anne Sennhenn Jörg‐H. Sachse Elke Majewski Bernhard Huchzermeyer Thomas Rath 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(12):1401-1407
Ten algae species were analyzed by comparing their growth in specific hypersaline industrial wastewater. It was a by‐product of fertilizer production which was released by K + S Aktiengesellschaft, Germany. Due to processing, brine water contains a high amount of salts ( 200 g L?1). A successful algal biotechnology mainly depends on choosing and screening the adequate algae for a specific application along with the design of optimal culture conditions with comparable photo bioreactor technologies. Therefore, a high throughput screening technology was developed. In comparison to glass flasks or flat panel reactors this system was eligible for screening applications because of disposable characteristics and the equability of each culture tube. Dunaliella salina, Tetraselmis tetrathele, and Nannochloropsis salina grew in the presence of hypersaline wastewater where T. tetrathele grew best to a wastewater concentration of 75% by salt shock experiments. D. salina tolerates a wastewater level up to 80% by gradual increase. Intracellular ion contents of lyophilized algae samples were measured. They feature special transporter to either exclude ions, i.e., sodium from the cell, or to include ions like potassium and magnesium in order to secure functionality of sensitive enzymes. Under saline stress conditions these transport systems as well as metabolic pathways leading to the production of compatible osmolytes could be induced. Stress tolerance mechanisms developed in initially unstressed culture either by stepwise adaptation or by shock exposure to harsh salt condition. For this reason a feasible mass production in industrial hypersaline wastewater was possible. 相似文献
35.
David Letson Carlos E. Laciana Federico E. Bert Elke U. Weber Richard W. Katz Xavier I. Gonzalez Guillermo P. Podestá 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):145-170
In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers. 相似文献
36.
Field relations, mineralogy, major- and trace-element contents (including REE analyses of whole-rock samples and minerals) of three Proterozoic granites and their associated molybdenite mineralized aplites have been studied at Allebuoda, Munka and Kåtaberget in northern Sweden. The granites crystallized from melts that were not saturated with water. The mineralized potassic aplites formed by quenching of residual melts caused by sudden pressure drop, H2O saturation and vapour escape during tectonic rupturing. Leucogranites with higher Na2O/K2O ratios from Allebuoda and Munka crystallized during H2O-saturated equilibrium conditions in which the exsolved vapour could continuously migrate away. The pressure was probably 3 kbar at Munka, and somewhat lower at Allebuoda.
The granites have REE patterns characterized by LREE enrichments and negative Eu anomalies. In comparison, the potassic aplites and the more sodic leucogranites are depleted in LREE, enriched in HREE and have larger negative Eu anomalies. Allanite and monazite are the most important REE carriers in the granites. These minerals are strongly enriched in LREE, whereas fluorite and xenotime, which are more abundant in the aplites, are most enriched in HREE. Due to the strong control of accessory minerals on the REE balance, REE are of limited use in petrogenetic modelling of highly evolved granitic systems. 相似文献
37.
From 1992 to 1994, trace metal concentrations of bog water, Sphagnum mosses and peat cores of the bog “Georgenfelder Hochmoor” at Zinnwald-Georgenfeld in the Eastern Ore Mountains (Germany) were investigated. A sampling campaign in September 2019 allows the comparison of the older measurements with today's trace metal concentrations. No changes were found in the bog waters, while the trace metal concentrations of the Sphagnum mosses have decreased significantly. Due to the low growth rate of the peat and despite certain heterogeneity between the peat cores, the investigated elemental data for the peat sampled in the 1990s and in 2019 are in the same concentration range. The maximum concentrations are measured in the upper samples of all peat cores for the analysed elements (except sulphur). Compared to upper crustal data, a different behaviour of the elements is observed: Cr, Sc, Ti, and V, rare earth elements show crustal ratios, while Al and Si are also influenced by crust-air fractionation. Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn are additionally enriched by anthropogenic atmospheric inputs from industry and transport. These results confirm the assumption that peat cores record past atmospheric deposition. 相似文献
38.
Most deliberations on climate policy are based on a mitigation response that assumes a gradually increasing reduction over time. However, situations may occur where a more urgent response is needed. A key question for climate policy in general, but even more in the case a rapid response is needed, is: what are the characteristic response times of the response options, such as rapid mitigation or solar radiation management (SRM)? This paper explores this issue, which has not received a lot of attention yet, by looking into the role of both societal and physical response times. For mitigation, technological and economic inertia clearly limit reduction rates with considerable uncertainty corresponding to political inertia and societies’ ability to organize rapid mitigation action at what costs. The paper looks into a rapid emission reductions of 4–6 % annually. Reduction rates at the top end of this range (up to 6 %) could effectively reduce climate change, but only with a noticeable delay. Temperatures could be above those in the year of policy introduction for more than 70 years, with unknown consequences of overshoot. A strategy based on SRM is shown to have much shorter response times (up to decades), but introduces an important element of risk, such as ocean acidification and the risk of extreme temperature shifts in case action is halted. Above all, the paper highlights the role of response times in designing effective policy strategies implying that a better understanding of these crucial factors is required. 相似文献
39.
From temporal variation in δ18O in Globigerinoides ruber and G. sacculifer and geochemical indices of weathering/erosion (chemical index of alteration, Al and Ti), we infer rapid southwest monsoon (SWM) deterioration with dwindling fluvial and detrital fluxes at ca. 450–650, 1000 and 1800–2200 cal. a BP during the late Holocene. We have evaluated the role of solar influx (reconstructed) and high‐latitude climate variability (archived in GRIP and GISP‐2 cores) on SWM precipitation. Broadly, our δ18O climate reconstruction is concordant with GRIP and GISP‐2, and supports a teleconnection through atmospheric connection between the SWM and the North Atlantic climate – albeit temporal extents of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period from high latitude are not entirely coeval. Moreover, there is a humid climate and enhanced precipitation during the terminal stages of the Little Ice Age. The medieval warming (ca. AD 800–1300) is not synchronous either, and is punctuated by an arid event centred at 1000 a BP. Although the delineation of the specific influence of solar influx on SWM precipitation is elusive, we surmise that SWM precipitation is a complex phenomenon and local orography along southwestern India may have a role on the entrapment of moisture from the southwest trade winds, when these hit land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
40.
Britta Planer-Friedrich Cornelia Härtig Heidi Lissner Jörg Steinborn Elke Süß M. Qumrul Hassan Anwar Zahid Mahmood Alam Broder Merkel 《Applied Geochemistry》2012
Currently, the most widely accepted hypothesis to explain high As concentrations in Bangladesh groundwaters is that dissolved organic C (DOC) reduces solid Fe (hydr)oxides and mobilizes sorbed arsenate. The nature of the DOC and its release mechanism are still controversial. Based on weekly to biweekly sampling over the course of one monsoon cycle at six monitoring wells of different depths, it is proposed that storativity changes drive natural DOC release from clay–peat layers to the adjacent aquifers. With a decrease in hydraulic heads during the dry season, total mineralization and DOC concentrations increased. With the onset of the rainy season and an increase in hydraulic heads, release of clay–peat derived components stopped and vertical water displacement due to groundwater recharge from rainwater occurred, causing aquifer flushing and a decrease in total mineralization and DOC concentrations. Total As and DOC concentrations correlated over depth. However, at the depth of maximum concentrations, the As peak was observed during the rainy season. At present, the reason for this inverse seasonal trend between As and DOC is unclear. Higher mineralization or DOC concentrations could lead to increased As sorption or the increased arsenite release is a time-lag abiotic or microbial response to the DOC peak. The vulnerability of the Pleistocene aquifer towards increased As concentrations was found to be much higher than previously assumed. Though sorption capacities were determined to be higher than in the Holocene aquifer, probably due to intact Fe (hydr)oxides, long-term continuous As input from overlying clay and peat layers by the proposed seasonal storativity changes has led to increased aqueous As concentrations of 85 μg/L, considerably higher than drinking water standards. Until now, aquifer and especially aquitard and aquiclude hydraulics have not been considered sufficiently when attempting to explain As mobilization in Bangladesh. 相似文献