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The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Jelle G. Van Minnen Kees Klein Goldewijk Elke Stehfest Bas Eickhout Gerard van Drecht Rik Leemans 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):123-144
Large amounts of carbon (C) have been released into the atmosphere over the past centuries. Less than half of this C stays in the atmosphere. The remainder is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Where does the C come from and where and when does this uptake occur? We address these questions by providing new estimates of regional land-use emissions and natural carbon fluxes for the 1700–2000 period, simultaneously considering multiple anthropogenic (e.g. land and energy demand) and biochemical factors in a geographically explicit manner. The observed historical atmospheric CO2 concentration profile for the 1700 to 2000 period has been reproduced well. The terrestrial natural biosphere has been a major carbon sink, due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, nitrogen and management. Due to land-use change large amounts of carbon have been emitted into the atmosphere. The net effect was an emission of 35 Pg C into the atmosphere for the 1700 to 2000 period. If land use had remained constant at its distribution in 1700, then the terrestrial C uptake would have increased by 142 Pg C. This overall difference of including or excluding land-use changes (i.e. 177 Pg C) comes to more than half of the historical fossil-fuel related emissions of 308 Pg C. Historically, global land-use emissions were predominantly caused by the expansion of cropland and pasture, while wood harvesting (for timber and fuel wood) only played a minor role. These findings are robust even when changing some of the important drivers like the extent of historical land-use changes. Under varying assumptions, land-use emissions over the past three centuries could have increased up to 20%, but remained significantly lower than from other sources. Combining the regional land-use and natural C fluxes, North America and Europe were net C sources before 1900, but turned into sinks during the twentieth century. Nowadays, these fluxes are a magnitude smaller than energy- and industry-related emissions. Tropical regions were C neutral prior to 1950, but then accelerated deforestation turned these regions into major C sources. The energy- and industry-related emissions are currently increasing in many tropical regions, but are still less than the land-use emissions. Based on the presented relevance of the land-use and natural fluxes for the historical C cycle and the significance of fossil-fuel emissions nowadays, there is a need for an integrated approach for energy, nature and land use in evaluating possible climate change mitigation policies. 相似文献
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Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet) 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
Elke U. Weber 《Climatic change》2006,77(1-2):103-120
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Elke Roediger Marcus Brüggen Matthias Hoeft 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(2):609-618
We present a sample of 30 wide-angle tailed radio galaxies (WATs) that we use to constrain the jet speeds in these sources. We measure the distribution of the jet-sidedness ratios for the sample, and assuming that the jets are beamed, the jet speeds in the range (0.3–0.7) c are obtained. Whilst the core prominence of the sample, which ought to be a reliable indicator of beaming, shows little correlation with the jet sidedness, we argue that due to the peculiar nature of the WATs, core prominence is unlikely to be a good indicator of beaming in these sources. We further show that if the jets are fast and light, then the galaxy speeds required to bend the jets into C-shapes such as those seen in 0647+693 are reasonable for a galaxy in a merging or recently merged cluster. 相似文献
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We present three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical simulations of ram pressure stripping of massive disc galaxies in clusters. Studies of galaxies that move face-on have predicted that in such a geometry the galaxy can lose a substantial amount of its interstellar medium. But only a small fraction of galaxies is moving face-on. In this work we focus on a systematic study of the effect of the inclination angle between the direction of motion and the galaxy's rotation axis.
In agreement with some previous works, we find that the inclination angle does not play a major role for the mass loss as long as the galaxy is not moving close to edge-on (inclination angle ≲60°). We explain this behaviour by extending Gunn & Gott's estimate of the stripping radius, which is valid for face-on geometries, to moderate inclinations.
The inclination plays a role as long as the ram pressure is comparable to pressures in the galactic plane, which can span two orders of magnitude. For very strong ram pressures, the disc will be stripped completely, and for very weak ram pressures, mass loss is negligible independent of inclination. We show that in non-edge-on geometries the stripping proceeds remarkably similar. A major difference between different inclinations is the degree of asymmetry introduced in the remaining gas disc.
We demonstrate that the tail of gas stripped from the galaxy does not necessarily point in a direction opposite to the galaxy's direction of motion. Therefore, the observation of a galaxy's gas tail may be misleading about the galaxy's direction of motion. 相似文献
In agreement with some previous works, we find that the inclination angle does not play a major role for the mass loss as long as the galaxy is not moving close to edge-on (inclination angle ≲60°). We explain this behaviour by extending Gunn & Gott's estimate of the stripping radius, which is valid for face-on geometries, to moderate inclinations.
The inclination plays a role as long as the ram pressure is comparable to pressures in the galactic plane, which can span two orders of magnitude. For very strong ram pressures, the disc will be stripped completely, and for very weak ram pressures, mass loss is negligible independent of inclination. We show that in non-edge-on geometries the stripping proceeds remarkably similar. A major difference between different inclinations is the degree of asymmetry introduced in the remaining gas disc.
We demonstrate that the tail of gas stripped from the galaxy does not necessarily point in a direction opposite to the galaxy's direction of motion. Therefore, the observation of a galaxy's gas tail may be misleading about the galaxy's direction of motion. 相似文献
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Detlef P. van Vuuren Elke Stehfest Michel G. J. den Elzen Tom Kram Jasper van Vliet Sebastiaan Deetman Morna Isaac Kees Klein Goldewijk Andries Hof Angelica Mendoza Beltran Rineke Oostenrijk Bas van Ruijven 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):95-116
The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases. 相似文献
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Zarfl C Fleet D Fries E Galgani F Gerdts G Hanke G Matthies M 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(8):1589-1591