Physically based evaluation of climate models over the Iberian Peninsula     

Carmen Sánchez de Cos  Jose M. Sánchez-Laulhé  Carlos Jiménez-Alonso  Juan M. Sancho-Avila  Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(7-8):1969-1984

A novel approach is proposed for evaluating regional climate models based on the comparison of empirical relationships among model outcome variables. The approach is actually a quantitative adaptation of the method for evaluating global climate models proposed by Betts (Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1673–1688, 2004). Three selected relationships among different magnitudes involved in water and energy land surface budgets are firstly established using daily re-analysis data. The selected relationships are obtained for an area encompassing two river basins in the southern Iberian Peninsula corresponding to 2 months, representative of dry and wet seasons. The same corresponding relations are also computed for each of the thirteen regional simulations of the ENSEMBLES project over the same area. The usage of a metric based on the Hellinger coefficient allows a quantitative estimation of how well models are performing in simulating the relations among surface magnitudes. Finally, a series of six rankings of the thirteen regional climate models participating in the ENSEMBLES project is obtained based on their ability to simulate such surface processes.  相似文献   

Multimodal ensemble Kalman filtering using Gaussian mixture models     

Laura Dovera  Ernesto Della Rossa 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(2):307-323

In this paper we present an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) specifically designed for multimodal systems. EnKF data assimilation scheme is less accurate when it is used to approximate systems with multimodal distribution such as reservoir facies models. The algorithm is based on the assumption that both prior and posterior distribution can be approximated by Gaussian mixture and it is validated by the introduction of the concept of finite ensemble representation. The effectiveness of the approach is shown with two applications. The first example is based on Lorenz model. In the second example, the proposed methodology combined with a localization technique is used to update a 2D reservoir facies models. Both applications give evidence of an improved performance of the proposed method respect to the EnKF.  相似文献   

The effect of travelling seismic waves on the dynamic response of earth dams     

Michele Maugeri  Ernesto MottaXinchuam Zeng 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1993,12(2)

A theoretical investigation of the dynamic response of earth dams to the travelling seismic waves is presented. The earth dam is simplified as a truncated two-dimensional elastic wedge. The dam body consists of an isotropical linear viscoelastic material with homogeneous elastic modulus and density. The seismic waves travel along the longitudinal direction of the earth dam. The numerical calculations show the following. (i) For the longitudinal mode of vibration, the greater the ratio (H/L) of the height to the lenght of the complete wedge, the more the natural transverse period of vibrational of the two-dimensional wedge is less than that of the one-dimensional wedge. Especially for the first two natural transverse period, this influence is large. The decrease of the ratio of the natural transverse period for a two-dimensional wedge to that for a one-dimensional wedge with the ratio H/L is rapid for the higher than for the lower longitudinal modes. (ii) Comparing with the one-dimensional wedge, the natural transverse periods for the two-dimensional case in the complete wedge are lower, and they will increase as the coefficient of truncation, h/H increases. (iii) When the frequency of forced vibration is less than the natural transverse frequency for one-dimensional wedge, the amplification is less for a two-dimensional wedge than for a one-dimensional wedge. (iv) When the phase difference of ground motion at both ends of the dam equals π, the amplification for a two-dimensional wedge is less than that for a one-dimensional wedge, but when the phase difference equals nπ, (n > 1), the situation is reversed. (v) As the coefficient of truncation, h/H, increases, the displacement model partecipations decrease monotically. (vi) In general, the displacement caused by an earthquake is greater for a one-dimensional wedge than for a two-dimensional wedge when considering the seismic waves travelling, but the acceleration response of a two-dimensional wedge with long length of dam to travelling seismic waves with long dominant period is greater than that of a one-dimensional wedge. When the length of the dam is short enough, the response of a two-dimensional wedge without considering the influence of travelling seismic waves always gives the greatest value.  相似文献   

Agrobiodiversity and Shade Coffee Smallholder Livelihoods: A Review and Synthesis of Ten Years of Research in Central America     

V. Ernesto Méndez  Christopher M. Bacon  Meryl Olson  Katlyn S. Morris  Annie Shattuck 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):357-376

We used households as the primary unit of analysis to synthesize agrobiodiversity research in small-scale coffee farms and cooperatives of Nicaragua and El Salvador. Surveys, focus groups, and plant inventories were used to analyze agrobiodiversity and its contribution to livelihoods. Households managed high levels of agrobiodiversity, including 100 shade tree and epiphyte species, food crops, and medicinals. Small farms contained higher levels of agrobiodiversity than larger, collectively managed cooperatives. Households benefited from agrobiodiversity through consumption and sales. To better support agrobiodiversity conservation, our analysis calls for a hybrid approach integrating bottom-up initiatives with the resources from top-down projects.  相似文献   

Albedo and photometric study of Mars with the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer on-board the Mars Express mission     

F. Esposito  M. Giuranna  E. Palomba  V. Formisano 《Icarus》2007,186(2):527-546

The Short Wavelength Channel of the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) covers the 8333-1750 cm⁻¹ (1.2-5.7 μm) spectral range, that is well suited to study the reflectance properties of the martian soil. These properties vary with time due to the dust dynamics in the martian environment. Wind can blow off dust exposing soil and fresh rocks and can support grain mobility inducing local dust settling. We have analyzed PFS data from January 2004 to April 2005. A detailed photometric study of the radiance acquired from the planet has been performed in order to compare correctly measurements obtained at different viewing geometries and to produce a mosaic image of the planet. The results show good agreement with data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (on-board NASA Mars Global Surveyor orbiter), although some variations are observed. Some albedo changes could be due to small to medium scale dust storms. A very accurate estimation of the limb-darkening parameter has been computed from the analyzed data. The obtained values are compared with a surface roughness and a thermal inertia map in order to assess the relation between the limb-darkening parameter and the physical properties of surface.  相似文献   

Depositional controls on mixed carbonate–siliciclastic cycles and sequences on gently inclined shelf profiles          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Zeller  Klaas Verwer  Gregor P. Eberli  Jose Luis Massaferro  Ernesto Schwarz  Luis Spalletti 《Sedimentology》2015,62(7):2009-2037

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Spectral analysis of Pennocarboniferous geomagnetic variation data from glacial rhythmites     

M. Ernesto  I. G. Pacca 《Geophysical Journal International》1981,67(3):641-647

Summary. Palaeomagnetic results for a sequence of Permocarboniferous rhythmites presented in the previous paper have been submitted to maximum entropy spectral analysis to test whether these palaeomagnetic data could supply information on geomagnetic variations. There is a good correlation between the thickness of the rhythmites and sunspot spectra, suggesting that these sediments are really seasonal. The palaeomagnetic spectra are compared with those of observatory records. Periods of approximately 24.4, 12.4, 8.6, 6.7 and 5.5 found for palaeomagnetic data have corresponding values in the geomagnetic spectrum. Most of these periods, however, are the same as those found in the thickness data, implying that magnetization can be influenced by the sedimentation process as suggested by other investigators. On the other hand, both geomagnetic and climatic (thickness) variations seem to be related to solar activity. Therefore, at least indirectly, palaeomagnetic data may reflect geomagnetic variations.  相似文献   

The fishery conservation policy of the European Union after 2002: towards long-term sustainability     

Penas  Ernesto 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):588-595

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Frequency and duration of historical droughts from the 16th to the 19th centuries in the Mexican Maya lands, Yucatan Peninsula     

Blanca Mendoza  Virginia García-Acosta  Victor Velasco  Ernesto Jáuregui  Rosa Díaz-Sandoval 《Climatic change》2007,83(1-2):151-168

Using unprecedented catalogues of past severe drought data for the Yucatan Peninsula between 1502 and 1900 coming from historical written documentation, we identified five conspicuous time lapses with no droughts between 1577–1647, 1662–1724, 1728–1764, 1774–1799 and 1855–1880, as well as time epochs with most frequent droughts between 1800 and 1850. Moreover, the most prominent periodicity of the historical drought time series was that of ∼40 years. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the Yucatan Peninsula for the period 1921–1987 we found prominent negative phases between ∼1942–1946 and 1949–1952, 1923–1924, 1928–1929, 1935–1936, 1962–1963, 1971–1972 and 1986–1987. Two prominent periodicities clearly appear at ∼5 and 10 years. Most modern and historical severe droughts lasted 1 year, and share a quasi-decadal frequency. Also, in the first 66 years of the twentieth century the frequency of occurrence of severe drought has been lower compared with the nineteenth century. Some of the major effects and impacts of the most severe droughts in the Yucatan region are examined. We also studied the relation between historical and modern droughts and several large scale climate phenomena represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our results indicate that historical droughts and the cold phase of the AMO coincide, while the influence of the SOI is less clear. The strongest coherence between historical droughts and AMO occurred at periodicities of ∼40 years. For modern droughts the coherence of a drought indicator (the Palmer Drought Severity Index) is similar with AMO and SOI, although it seems more sustained with the AMO. They are strongest at ∼10 years and very clearly with the AMO cold phase. Concerning the solar activity proxies and historical droughts, the coherence with a record of beryllium isotope Be¹⁰, which is a good proxy of cosmic rays, is higher than with Total Solar Irradiance. We notice that the strongest coherence between historical droughts and Be¹⁰ occurs at periods ∼60–64 years. When studying modern droughts and solar activity, frequencies of ∼8 years appear, and the coherences are similar for both sunspots and cosmic rays. Comparing natural terrestrial and solar phenomena, we found that the most sustained and strongest modulation of historical drought occurrence is at ∼60–64 years and is between the historical drought series and the solar proxy Be¹⁰. For modern droughts we notice that the coherence is similar among AMO, SOI and the solar indices. We can conclude that the sea surface temperatures (AMO) and solar activity leave their signal in terms of severe droughts in the Maya lands, however in the long term, the influence of the SOI on this type of phenomenon is less clear.  相似文献   

Mechanistic and Kinetic Study of the Gas-Phase Reaction of Atomic Chlorine with Cyclohexanone using an Absolute and a Relative Technique; Influence of Temperature     

Ernesto Martínez  Alfonso Aranda  Yolanda Díaz-De-Mera  Ana Rodríguez  Diana Rodríguez  Alberto Notario 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2004,48(3):283-299

The reaction of Cl with cyclohexanone (1) was investigated, for the first time, as a function of temperature (273–333 K) and at a low total pressure (1 Torr) with helium as a carrier gas using a discharge flow-mass spectrometry technique (DF-MS). The resulting Arrhenius expression is proposed, k ₁= (7.7 ± 4.1) × 10^–10 exp[–(540 ± 169)/T]. We also report a mechanistic study with the quantitative determination of the products of the reaction of Cl with cyclohexanone. The absolute rate constant derived from this study at 1 Torr of total pressure and room temperature is (1.3 ± 0.2) × 10^–10 cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1. A yield of 0.94 ± 0.10 was found for the H-abstraction channel giving HCl. In relative studies, using a newly constructed relative rate system, the decay of cyclohexanone was followed by gas chromatography coupled with flame-ionisation detection. These relative measurements were performed at atmospheric pressure with synthetic air and room temperature. Rate constant measured using the relative method for reaction (1) is: (1.7 ± 0.3) × 10^–10 cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1. Finally, results and atmospheric implications are discussed and compared with the reactivity with OH radicals.  相似文献