Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Federico Cervi  Matteo Berti  Lisa Borgatti  Francesco Ronchetti  Federica Manenti  Alessandro Corsini 《Landslides》2010,7(4):433-444

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.  相似文献   

Early Wisconsinan (MIS 4) Arctic ground squirrel middens and a squirrel-eye-view of the mammoth-steppe     

Grant D. Zazula  Duane G. Froese  Scott A. Elias  Svetlana Kuzmina  Rolf W. Mathewes 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(17-18):2220-2237

Fossil arctic ground squirrel (Spermophilus parryii) middens were recovered from ice-rich loess sediments in association with Sheep Creek-Klondike and Dominion Creek tephras (ca 80 ka) exposed in west-central Yukon. These middens provide plant and insect macrofossil evidence for a steppe-tundra ecosystem during the Early Wisconsinan (MIS 4) glacial interval. Midden plant and insect macrofossil data are compared with those previously published for Late Wisconsinan middens dating to ～25–29¹⁴C ka BP (MIS 3/2) from the region. Although multivariate statistical comparisons suggest differences between the relative abundances of plant macrofossils, the co-occurrence of steppe-tundra plants and insects (e.g., Elymus trachycaulus, Kobresia myosuroides, Artemisia frigida, Phlox hoodii, Connatichela artemisiae) provides evidence for successive reestablishment of the zonal steppe-tundra habitats during cold stages of the Late Pleistocene. Arctic ground squirrels were well adapted to the cold, arid climates, steppe-tundra vegetation and well-drained loessal soils that characterize cold stages of Late Pleistocene Beringia. These glacial conditions enabled arctic ground squirrel populations to expand their range to the interior regions of Alaska and Yukon, including the Klondike, where they are absent today. Arctic ground squirrels have endured numerous Quaternary climate oscillations by retracting populations to disjunct “interglacial refugia” during warm interglacial periods (e.g., south-facing steppe slopes, well-drained arctic and alpine tundra areas) and expanding their distribution across the mammoth-steppe biome during cold, arid glacial intervals.  相似文献   

Bridges and bottlenecks: Andrei Sher’s role in the development of international collaboration in Beringian science     

Scott Elias  Klaus Dodds 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(17-18):2049-2053

Andrei Sher played a leading role in the development of international cooperation and exchange of ideas in Beringian science. The Cold War created great tensions between the USSR and the NATO countries, as the Bering Strait region became one of the front lines of potential military conflict. However, through the persistent efforts of such people as Andrei Sher in Russia and David Hopkins in the USA, scientists were able to overcome political obstacles to attend international Beringian conferences, visit each other’s militarized zones to do fieldwork, and collaborate on joint projects.  相似文献   

An example of flow differentiation: clinopyroxenite of the Predazzo igneous complex (north Italy)     

Federico Lucchini  Lauro Morten 《Lithos》1977,10(1):39-47

Chemical, modal and mineralogic data and textural observations suggest that the small mafic-ultramafic body at Predazzo, consisting of olivine-bearing gabbro, clinopyroxenite and quartz-bearing gabbro, is the result of a flow differentiation mechanism acting on a mush formed of 60% solid plus 40% liquid. Such a mechanism was capable of producing the concentration of the early formed crystals ($\text{cpx}\text{+}\text{mt}$) towards the center of the body (clinopyroxenite) with segregation of two portions enriched in liquid toward the margins (olivine- and quartz-bearing gabbros).  相似文献   

Harkerite from the Alban Hills,Italy     

M Barbieri  D Cozzupoli  M Federico  M Fornaseri  S Merlino  P Orlandi  L Tolomeo 《Lithos》1977,10(2):133-141

Harkerite, found in metamorphic ejecta of the Alban Hills associated with cuspidine, grossular, phlogopite, vesuvian, biotite, and minor amounts of diopside, aegirinaugite, leucite, magnetite and calcito, shows cubic Laue symmetry m3m, possible space groups Fm3m, F432, F43m, a₀ = 14.82 Å.On the basis of isomorphous replacements suggested by the crystal structure analysis, chemical data may be represented by the formula: Ca₄₈Mg₁₆(AlSi₄O₁₆)₄(BO₃)₁₂(CO₃)₂₀ · 4H₂O. Refractive index n_D = 1.6490.The relations between harkerite from Albano, harkerite from Skye and other known harkerites and sakhaites are discussed.  相似文献   

The circumvention of the natural biopurification of calcium along nutrient pathways by atmospheric inputs of industrial lead     

Robert W. Elias  Yoshimitsu Hirao  Clair C. Patterson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(12):2561-2580

Biopurification factors for Ca with respect to Sr, Ba, and natural, uncontaminated Pb were measured for different nutrient-consumer pairs in a remote subalpine ecosystem. The factor for Sr is expressed as: (nutrient $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$) ÷ (consumer $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$). Similar expressions were used for $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ and $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$. It was found that Ca was biopurified of Sr 3-fold, of Ba 16-fold, and of Pb 100-fold in going from rock to sedge leaves. In going from sedge leaf to vole, Ca was biopurified of Sr 4-fold, of Ba 8-fold, and of Pb 16-fold. In going from meadow vole to pine marten, Ca was biopurified of Sr 6-fold, of Ba 7-fold, and of Pb 1.1-fold. Similar ranges of values for these factors were obtained for detrital and amphibian food chains. Fluxes of industrial lead entering the ecosystem as precipitation and dry deposition were measured and it was found that 40% of the lead in soil humus and soil moisture, 82% of the lead in sedge leaves, 92% of the lead in vole, and 97% of the lead in marten was industrial. The natural skeletal $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio in carnivores (4 × 10^?8) was determined by means of corrections for inputs of industrial lead, food chain relationships, and measured biopurification factors for the ecosystem studied. This represents a 1700-fold reduction of the average $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio in igneous rocks at the earth's surface (6.4 × 10^?5) by the compounding of successive Pb biopurification factors in transferring Ca from rock to carnivore. The natural ratio is similar to the value of 6 × 10^?8 observed for $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ in the bones of Peruvians who lived 2000 years ago but is 1/900th of the value of about 3.5 × 10^?5 for the skeletal $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio found in present day Americans.This study shows experimentally how the $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ ratio in average surface igneous rock (3 × 10^?3) has been reduced 800-fold through compounding of successive biopurification steps to provide the skeletal $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ ratio of about 4 × 10^?6 observed in humans. It also provides biopurification factors for Sr and Ba among a number of nutrient-consumer pairs which anthropologists can use to delineate degrees of herbivory in diets of hominids within the last 10,000 years.  相似文献   

The evolution of the mantle source beneath Mt. Etna (Sicily,Italy): from the 600 ka tholeiites to the recent trachybasaltic magmas     

Federico Casetta  Pier Paolo Giacomoni  Carmelo Ferlito  Costanza Bonadiman  Massimo Coltorti 《International Geology Review》2020,62(3):338-359

ABSTRACT

The spatial/temporal proximity of Mt. Etna to the Hyblean Plateau and the Aeolian slab makes the discussion on the nature of its mantle source/s extremely controversial. In this study, a detailed geochemical overview of the entire Mt. Etna evolutionary sequence and a comparison with the magmatism of the Hyblean Plateau was proposed to: (i) simulate the composition of Mt. Etna tholeiitic to alkaline primitive magmas in equilibrium with a fertile mantle source; (ii) model the nature, composition and evolution of the mantle source from the tholeiitic stage (600 ka) to present magmatism. According to our simulations, two amphibole + phlogopite-bearing spinel lherzolite sources are able to explain the wide range of Etnean primary magmas. The enrichment in LILE, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Rb and H₂O of the magmas emitted after 1971 (but also discontinuously generated in both historic and prehistoric times) are caused by different melting proportions of amphibole and phlogopite in a modally and compositionally homogeneous mantle domain, with melting degrees analogous to those required to produce magmas erupted prior to 1971. The behaviour of the hydrous phases during melting could be ascribed to a variable H₂O/CO₂ activity in the mantle source, in turn related to the heat/fluxes supply from the asthenospheric upwelling beneath Mt. Etna. All these considerations, strengthened by numerical models, are then merged to review the complex Pliocene/Lower Pleistocene to present day’s geodynamic evolution of eastern Sicily.  相似文献   

Plume chemistry provides insights into mechanisms of sulfur and halogen degassing in basaltic volcanoes     

A. Aiuppa  C. Federico  S. Gurrieri  M. Valenza 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(2):469-483

This paper deals with sulfur, chlorine and fluorine abundances in the eruptive volcanic plume of the huge October 2002-January 2003 eruption of Mount Etna, aiming at relating the relevant compositional variations observed throughout with changes in eruption dynamics and degassing mechanisms. The recurrent sampling of plume acidic volatiles by filter-pack methodology revealed that, during the study period, S/Cl and Cl/F ratios ranged from 0.1-6.8 and 0.9-5.6, respectively. Plume S/Cl ratios increased by a factor of ∼10 as volcanic activity drifted from paroxysmal lava fountaining (mid- and late November) to passive degassing and minor effusion (early January), and then decreased to the low values (S/Cl=0.1) typical of the final stages of the eruption. Parallel variations in chlorine to fluorine ratios were also observed. A theoretical model is proposed for quantitative interpretation of these changes in plume composition. The model calculates the composition of a volatile phase exsolving from an ascending Etna magma, based on knowledge of solubilities and abundances in the undegassed melt of sulfur and halogens [T.M. Gerlach, EOS 72 (1991), 249, 254-255]. According to this model, degassing of Etnean basaltic melt at high pressures and depths (>100 MPa, 3 km) is likely to release a CO₂+H₂O-rich vapor phase with S/Cl molar ratios ∼1. Extensive sulfur and chlorine degassing from the melt would take place at shallower depth (P<20 MPa, 0.6 km), with S/Cl ratios in the vapor phase increasing as pressure drops to 0.1 MPa. Comparisons between model compositions and volcanic plume data demonstrate that the chemical trends observed during the eruption may be explained by increased degassing due to depressurization of a basaltic magma batch ascending toward the surface.  相似文献   

The Ross orogeny of the transantarctic mountains: a northern Victoria Land perspective   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Laura Federico  Giovanni Capponi  Laura Crispini 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):759-770

Northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) is made up of three terranes of Cambrian–Ordovician rocks: the Wilson (WT), Bowers (BT) and Robertson Bay terranes (RBT). The WT comprises a low- to high-grade metasedimentary sequence intruded by calc-alkaline plutons with magmatic arc affinity; the BT is composed of low-grade metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks usually interpreted as an intra-oceanic arc; the RBT is a very low-grade flysch-like sequence. Terrane juxtaposition has traditionally been attributed to accretion during the Cambro-ordovician Ross orogeny. We propose a new model in which the WT, BT and RBT are interpreted as an arc/back-arc/trench system, developed in the context of a SW-dipping subduction zone. The subducting plate carried a continent originally located outboard of the turbidite fan of the RBT. Collision between this continent and the East Antarctic craton caused partial subduction of the intervening back-arc basin and, ultimately, the end of Ross-orogenic subduction. The turbidite fan of the RBT originally sedimented above the trench and on the subducting oceanic plate; due to collision it was thrusted on the continent, that constitutes, at least in part, the present basement of the RBT turbidite. The eastern portions of this continental mass were later dissected by the tensile tectonics related to the opening of the of the Southern Ocean.  相似文献   

Active transfer fault zone linking a segmented extensional system (Betics, southern Spain): Insight into heterogeneous extension driven by edge delamination   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jos Miguel Martínez-Martínez  Guillermo Booth-Rea  Jos Miguel Azan  Federico Torcal 《Tectonophysics》2006,422(1-4):159-173

Pliocene and Quaternary tectonic structures mainly consisting of segmented northwest–southeast normal faults, and associated seismicity in the central Betics do not agree with the transpressive tectonic nature of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary in the Ibero-Maghrebian region. Active extensional deformation here is heterogeneous, individual segmented normal faults being linked by relay ramps and transfer faults, including oblique-slip and both dextral and sinistral strike-slip faults. Normal faults extend the hanging wall of an extensional detachment that is the active segment of a complex system of successive WSW-directed extensional detachments which have thinned the Betic upper crust since middle Miocene. Two areas, which are connected by an active 40-km long dextral strike-slip transfer fault zone, concentrate present-day extension. Both the seismicity distribution and focal mechanisms agree with the position and regime of the observed faults. The activity of the transfer zone during middle Miocene to present implies a mode of extension which must have remained substantially the same over the entire period. Thus, the mechanisms driving extension should still be operating. Both the westward migration of the extensional loci and the high asymmetry of the extensional systems can be related to edge delamination below the south Iberian margin coupled with roll-back under the Alborán Sea; involving the asymmetric westward inflow of asthenospheric material under the margins.  相似文献