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51.
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This paper discusses a near real-time approach to solar active-region monitoring and flare prediction using the Big Bear Solar
Observatory Active Region Monitor (ARM). Every hour, ARM reads, calibrates, and analyses a variety of data including: full-disk
Hα images from the Global Hα Network; EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO);
and full-disk magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). For the first time, magnetic gradient maps derived
from GONG longitudinal magnetograms are now available on-line and are found to be a useful diagnostic of flare activity. ARM
also includes a variety of active-region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment
Center, such as up-to-date active-region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare-to-region identifications. Furthermore,
we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class
flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has
proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1020950221179 相似文献
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In continental areas it is often difficult to determine the cause of intraplate magmatism. Large volumes of magma, high eruption rates, and the presence of a hotspot trace on the adjacent ocean floor, are all evidence for the presence of an anomalously hot mantle. However, in many continental magmas there are chemical variations with time which are inferred to reflect changes from asthenospheric to predominantly lithospheric source regions, or vice versa. It is argued that these chemical characteristics constrain whether magmatism was triggered by the emplacement of a mantle plume, or by lithospheric extension. 相似文献
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François-Nicolas Robinne Dennis W. Hallema Kevin D. Bladon Mike D. Flannigan Gabrielle Boisramé Christian M. Bréthaut Stefan H. Doerr Giuliano Di Baldassarre Louise A. Gallagher Amanda K. Hohner Stuart J. Khan Alicia M. Kinoshita Rua Mordecai João Pedro Nunes Petter Nyman Cristina Santín Gary Sheridan Cathelijne R. Stoof Matthew P. Thompson James M. Waddington Yu Wei 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14086
2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology. 相似文献
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Self-organised patterns of stone stripes, polygons, circles and clastic solifluction lobes form by the sorting of clasts from fine-grained sediments in freeze-thaw cycles. We present new High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images of Mars which demonstrate that the slopes of high-latitude craters, including Heimdal crater - just 25 km east of the Phoenix Landing Site - are patterned by all of these landforms. The order of magnitude improvement in imaging data resolution afforded by HiRISE over previous datasets allows not only the reliable identification of these periglacial landforms but also shows that high-latitude fluviatile gullies both pre- and post-date periglacial patterned ground in several high-latitude settings on Mars. Because thaw is inherent to the sorting processes that create these periglacial landforms, and from the association of this landform assemblage with fluviatile gullies, we infer the action of liquid water in a fluvio-periglacial context. We conclude that these observations are evidence of the protracted, widespread action of thaw liquids on and within the martian regolith. Moreover, the size frequency statistics of superposed impact craters demonstrate that this freeze-thaw environment is, at least in Heimdal crater, less than a few million years old. Although the current martian climate does not favour prolonged thaw of water ice, observations of possible liquid droplets on the strut of the Phoenix Lander may imply significant freezing point depression of liquids sourced in the regolith, probably driven by the presence of perchlorates in the soil. Because perchlorates have eutectic temperatures below 240 K and can remain liquid at temperatures far below the freezing point of water we speculate that freeze-thaw involving perchlorate brines provides an alternative “low-temperature” hypothesis to the freeze-thaw of more pure water ice and might drive significant geomorphological work in some areas of Mars. Considering the proximity of Heimdal crater to the Phoenix Landing Site, the presence of such hydrated minerals might therefore explain the landforms described here. If this is the case then the geographical distribution of martian freeze-thaw landforms might reflect relatively high temperatures (but still below 273 K) and the locally elevated concentration of salts in the regolith. 相似文献
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G. R. Holdgate T. A. G. Smith S. J. Gallagher M. W. Wallace 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):657-679
New mapping at Anglesea coal mine, and coal resource and deep groundwater drilling have provided new perspectives on the economically important Eastern View Group coal bearing sedimentary succession in the onshore Torquay Basin. In the Anglesea Syncline, the upper 35 m thick brown coal seam of the Eastern View Group is overlain by a low angle unconformity. Units overlying the coal seams include high energy, cross cutting sand channels of the Boonah Formation and lower energy channel and interchannel systems of the overlying Salt Creek and Anglesea Formations. The mine section can be correlated from borehole data with the Eastern View Group and Demons Bluff Group exposed in coastal cliff sections along the adjacent Anglesea to Torquay coast. Recently drilled coal and groundwater exploration bores provide new data on the extent of the coal measures in the Anglesea area, and details of the underlying Tertiary succession that include typical Otway Basin units such as the Pember Mudstone and Pebble Point Formations. The stratigraphy below the coal measures suggests that the Otway Ranges were not present during Palaeogene times. The rank of the brown coals on and around the Otway Ranges is higher than any other Tertiary coals in onshore Victoria, and they preserve similar patterns of rank distribution to the high rank black coals in the underlying Lower Cretaceous Otway Group. Evidence for large overburden thicknesses is lacking, and the high ranks may have been augmented by higher than normal geothermal gradients in the Early Tertiary. Comparisons between the observed depositional cycles, sequence stratigraphic cycles, and worldwide coastal onlap curves suggest that the observed disconformity boundaries are sequence boundaries that provide a chronostratigraphic framework. Sequences present may include TB4.1–4.5 in the overburden units, and TB 2.4–3.6 in the coal bearing interval. 相似文献