Sea-Level Change: The Expected Economic Cost of Protection Or Abandonment in the United States   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Gary W. Yohe  Michael E. Schlesinger 《Climatic change》1998,38(4):447-472

Three distinct models from earlier work are combined to: (1) produce probabilistically weighted scenarios of greenhouse-gas-induced sea-level rise; (2) support estimates of the expected discounted value of the cost of sea-level rise to the developed coastline of the United States, and (3) develop reduced-form estimates of the functional relationship between those costs to anticipated sea-level rise, the cost of protection, and the anticipated rate of property-value appreciation. Four alternative representations of future sulfate emissions, each tied consistently to the forces that drive the initial trajectories of the greenhouse gases, are considered. Sea-level rise has a nonlinear effect on expected cost in all cases, but the estimated sensitivity falls short of being quadratic. The mean estimate for the expected discounted cost across the United States is approximately $2 billion (with a 3% real discount rate), but the range of uncertainty around that estimate is enormous; indeed, the 10th and 90th percentile estimates run from less than $0.2 billion up to more than $4.6 billion. In addition, the mean estimate is very sensitive to associated sulfate emissions; it is, specifically, diminished by nearly 25% when base-case sulfate emission trajectories are considered and by more than 55% when high-sulfate trajectories are allowed.  相似文献   

Conducting and Interpreting Slug Tests in Monitoring Wells with Partially Submerged Screens     

Gordon K. Binkhorst  Gary A. Robbins 《Ground water》1998,36(2):225-229

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Quantifying groundwater discharge to a small perennial stream in southern Ontario, Canada   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Edwin E. Cey  David L. Rudolph  Gary W. Parkin  Ramon Aravena 《Journal of Hydrology》1998,210(1-4):21-37

A study of the interaction between groundwater and surface water was undertaken within a small agricultural watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Groundwater contributions to streamflow were measured along a section of stream during baseflow conditions and during rainfall events. Four techniques were used to estimate the contribution of groundwater to the stream along a 450 m reach (three during baseflow and one during stormflow conditions). Under baseflow conditions, streamflow measurements using the velocity–area technique indicated that the net groundwater flux to the stream during the summer months was 10 ml s⁻¹ m⁻¹. Hydrometric measurements (i.e. hydraulic gradient and hydraulic conductivity) taken using mini-piezometers installed in the sediments beneath the stream resulted in net groundwater flux estimates that were four to five times lower. Seepage meters failed to provide any measurements of water flux into or out of the stream. Therefore, based on these results, the velocity–area technique gives the best estimate of groundwater discharge. Hydrograph separations were conducted using isotopic ratios and electrical conductivity on two large rainfall events with different antecedent moisture conditions in the catchment. Both events showed that pre-event water (generally considered groundwater) dominated streamflow and tile drain flow with 64%–80% of the total discharge contributed by pre-event water. High water table conditions within the catchment resulted in greater stream discharge and a greater contribution of event water in the streamflow than that observed under low water table conditions for similar intensity storm events. The results also showed that differences in riparian zone width, vegetation and surface saturation conditions between the upper and lower catchment can influence the relative magnitude of streamflow response from the two catchment areas.  相似文献   

Confronting the quadruple global crisis     

Gary A. Dymski 《Geoforum》2010,41(6):837-840

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SWAS observations of water vapor in the Venus mesosphere     

Mark A. Gurwell  Gary J. Melnick  Edwin A. Bergin 《Icarus》2007,188(2):288-304

We present the first detections of the ground-state H₂¹⁶O (₁₁₀-₁₀₁) rotational transition (at 556.9 GHz) and the ¹³CO (5-4) rotational transition from the atmosphere of Venus, measured with the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS). The observed spectral features of these submillimeter transitions originate primarily from the 70-100 km altitude range, within the Venus mesosphere. Observations were obtained in December 2002, and January, March, and July 2004, coarsely sampling one Venus diurnal period as seen from Earth. The measured water vapor absorption line depth shows large variability among the four observing periods, with strong detections of the line in December 2002 and July 2004, and no detections in January and March 2004. Retrieval of atmospheric parameters was performed using a multi-transition inversion algorithm, combining simultaneous retrievals of temperature, carbon monoxide, and water profiles under imposed constraints. Analysis of the SWAS spectra resulted in measurements or upper limits for the globally averaged mesospheric water vapor abundance for each of the four observation periods, finding variability over at least two orders of magnitude. The results are consistent with both temporal and diurnal variability, but with short-term fluctuations clearly dominating. These results are fully consistent with the long-term study of mesospheric water vapor from millimeter and submillimeter observations of HDO [Sandor, B.J., Clancy, R.T., 2005. Icarus 177, 129-143]. The December 2002 observations detected very rapid change in the mesospheric water abundance. Over five days, a deep water absorption feature consistent with a water vapor abundance of 4.5±1.5 parts per million suddenly gave way to a significantly shallower absorption, implying a decrease in the water vapor abundance by a factor of nearly 50 in less that 48 h. In 2004, similar changes in the water vapor abundance were measured between the March and July SWAS observing periods, but variability on time scales of less than a week was not detected. The mesospheric water vapor is expected to be in equilibrium with aerosol particles, primarily composed of concentrated sulfuric acid, in the upper haze layers of the Venus atmosphere. If true, moderate amplitude (10-15 K) variability in mesospheric temperature, previously noted in millimeter spectroscopy observations of Venus, can explain the rapid water vapor variability detected by SWAS.  相似文献   

Titanium isotopic compositions of well‐characterized silicon carbide grains from Orgueil (CI): Implications for s‐process nucleosynthesis     

Gary R. Huss  Julie B. Smith 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2007,42(7-8):1055-1075

Abstract— We have measured the titanium isotopic compositions of 23 silicon carbide grains from the Orgueil (CI) carbonaceous chondrites for which isotopic compositions of silicon, carbon, and nitrogen and aluminum‐magnesium systematics had been measured previously. Using the 16 most‐precise measurements, we estimate the relative contributions of stellar nucleosynthesis during the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase and the initial compositions of the parent stars to the compositions of the grains. To do this, we compare our data to the results of several published stellar models that employ different values for some important parameters. Our analysis confirms that s‐process synthesis during the AGB phase only slightly modified the titanium compositions in the envelopes of the stars where mainstream silicon carbide grains formed, as it did for silicon. Our analysis suggests that the parent stars of the >1 μm silicon carbide grains that we measured were generally somewhat more massive than the Sun (2–3 M_⊙) and had metallicities similar to or slightly higher than solar. Here we differ slightly from results of previous studies, which indicated masses at the lower end of the range 1.5–3 M_⊙ and metallicities near solar. We also conclude that models using a standard ¹³C pocket, which produces a good match for the main component of s‐process elements in the solar system, overestimate the contribution of the ¹³C pocket to s‐process nucleosynthesis of titanium found in silicon carbide grains. Although previous studies have suggested that the solar system has a significantly different titanium isotopic composition than the parent stars of silicon carbide grains, we find no compelling evidence that the Sun falls off of the array defined by those stars. We also conclude that the Sun does lie on the low‐metallicity end of the silicon and titanium arrays defined by mainstream silicon carbide grains.  相似文献   

A workshop on CIDA’s regional oceans initiatives     

Lennox O Hinds  GB Bacon  Carlyle Mitchell  Gary Vernon 《Marine Policy》1998,22(6):437-440

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A composite Fe,Ni‐FeS and enstatite‐forsterite‐diopside‐glass vitrophyre clast in the Larkman Nunatak 04316 aubrite: Origin by pyroclastic volcanism     

Klaus KEIL  Timothy J. McCOY  Lionel WILSON  Jean‐Alix BARRAT  Doug RUMBLE  Matthias M. M. MEIER  Rainer WIELER  Gary R. HUSS 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2011,46(11):1719-1741

Abstract– We studied the mineralogy, petrology, and bulk, trace element, oxygen, and noble gas isotopic compositions of a composite clast approximately 20 mm in diameter discovered in the Larkman Nunatak (LAR) 04316 aubrite regolith breccia. The clast consists of two lithologies: One is a quench‐textured intergrowth of troilite with spottily zoned metallic Fe,Ni which forms a dendritic or cellular structure. The approximately 30 μm spacings between the Fe,Ni arms yield an estimated cooling rate of this lithology of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. The other is a quench‐textured enstatite‐forsterite‐diopside‐glass vitrophyre lithology. The composition of the clast suggests that it formed at an exceptionally high degree of partial melting, perhaps approaching complete melting, and that the melts from which the composite clast crystallized were quenched from a temperature of approximately 1380–1400 °C at a rate of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. The association of the two lithologies in a composite clast allows, for the first time, an estimation of the cooling rate of a silicate vitrophyre in an aubrite of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. While we cannot completely rule out an impact origin of the clast, we present what we consider is very strong evidence that this composite clast is one of the elusive pyroclasts produced during pyroclastic volcanism on the aubrite parent body ( Wilson and Keil 1991 ). We further suggest that this clast was not ejected into space but retained on the aubrite parent body by virtue of the relatively large size of the clast of approximately 20 mm. Our modeling, taking into account the size of the clast, suggests that the aubrite parent body must have been between approximately 40 and 100 km in diameter, and that the melt from which the clast crystallized must have contained an estimated maximum range of allowed volatile mass fractions between approximately 500 and approximately 4500 ppm.  相似文献   

Hydrated minerals on Europa’s surface: An improved look from the Galileo NIMS investigation     

Thomas B. McCord  Gary B. Hansen  Paul Hayne 《Icarus》2010,209(2):639-717

The surface composition of Europa is of great importance for understanding both the internal evolution of Europa and its putative ocean. The Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) investigation on Galileo observed Europa and the other Galilean satellites from 0.7 to 5.2 μm with spatial resolution down to a few kilometers during flybys by the spacecraft as it orbited Jupiter. These data have been analyzed and results published over the life of the Galileo mission and afterward. One result was the discovery of hydrated minerals at some locations on Europa and Ganymede. The data are noisy, especially for Europa, due to radiation affecting the NIMS electronics and detectors, and other artifacts are also present. The NIMS data are now being reprocessed using the accumulated knowledge gained over the entire missions to remove noise spikes and compensate for some other defects in the data. We are analyzing these reprocessed data in an attempt to defined better the nature of the hydrate spectral features and improve their interpretation. We report here on analyses of two NIMS reprocessed observations for the 0.7-3-μm region. A revised hydrate spectrum is calculated and mapped in detail across two lineaments. The spectrum shows the expected distorted water features but little or no spectral structure in these features. A narrow, weak spectral feature appears at 1.344 μm, which is weakly correlated with lower albedo. Several other weak features may be present but are difficult to confirm in these limited data sets. The hydrate signature shows the greatest strength within and toward the center of the lineaments, confirming and strengthening the association of the hydrate with these endogenic features. This trend may indicate that the material in the lineaments is youngest toward the center and has more water frost coverage toward the edge. A small, visually dark, circular feature has a spectrum that shows both hydrate and crystalline water ice features and perhaps contains a hydrate different in spectral characteristics and perhaps composition than found in the lineament.  相似文献   

Precipitation of heavy metals in produced water: influence on contaminant transport and toxicity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Azetsu-Scott K  Yeats P  Wohlgeschaffen G  Dalziel J  Niven S  Lee K 《Marine environmental research》2007,63(2):146-167

Produced water undergoes changes in its physical chemistry including precipitation of heavy metals after being discharged and mixed with ambient seawater. Potential impacts of the precipitation of heavy metals on their transport and toxicity were studied using samples from offshore oil production sites on the Scotian Shelf off eastern Canada. Concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, manganese, nickel and zinc were measured in total, particulate and dissolved fractions together with Microtox tests for assessment of toxicity. Heavy metals in produced water were transformed from dissolved to particulate phase in a period of hours under oxygenated conditions, and aggregated to larger particles that settle rapidly (>100 m/day) over a few days. In addition, there was production of buoyant particles comprised of heavy metal precipitates sequestered onto oil droplets that were transported to the surface. The particulate fraction was generally more toxic than the dissolved fraction. This was evident at the mixing interface between produced water and seawater where elevated particulate and toxicity levels were observed. Laboratory studies suggest an increase in the toxicity of discharged produced water over time. Time-series experiments showed a sustained toxic response for more than a week following the oxidation of freshly discharged produced water that initially elicited little or no toxic response in the Microtox test. Chemical processes identified in this study, namely precipitation of heavy metals and consequent settling and rising fluxes of particles, will influence the toxicity, the fate and the transport of potential contaminants in the produced water. Therefore, these processes need to be considered in assessment of the environmental impact associated with offshore oil and gas operations.  相似文献