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401.
402.
Abstract A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly. Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869. 相似文献
403.
ABSTRACTSomalia has frequently been affected by droughts, famines and water-related humanitarian crises. Water is scarce and the only perennial streams, the Juba and Shabelle rivers, are trans-boundary with river flows mainly originating from the Ethiopian highlands. In both riparian countries water demands are projected to increase. This paper reveals the impact of rising regional water abstractions on stream flows by illustrating sectoral demands and joining them into scenarios of medium and high population and economic growth. These scenarios are associated to the time horizons of 2035 and 2055, respectively. The scenarios disclose alarming trends especially for the Shabelle River: in the medium and high growth scenarios, water demands surpass the available river flows by 200 and 3500 hm3, respectively. The calculated deficits partly derive from conflicting assumptions about river flows by the two main riparian countries, an obstacle to any integrated planning efforts and sustained regional development.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
404.
ABSTRACTA digital elevation model (DEM), as well as satellite images, was used to detect the changes in the morphology and storage capacity of the Aswan High Dam Reservoir (AHDR) over the past five decades. Study findings indicate that the total storage capacity of the AHDR estimated by the DEM decreased by 12%. This decrease is mainly in the live and the dead storage capacities. The morphology of the reservoir changed in the southern part and at the entrance of the lacustrine part. A gradual conversion of the entrance to the riverine part was observed. The surface area of the AHDR decreased at low water levels because of sedimentation. The average reduction of the surface area between water levels of 140 and 168 m a.s.l. is about 15%, which is equivalent to almost 10 km3. 相似文献
405.
Beach-rock exposures provide a record of Holocene sea-level rise along the 560-km-long northeast-facing coast of Ceará, Brazil, that differs from the record available along the other 4300 km of Brazilian coastline further south. Whereas documentation is available from southern Brazil to show Holocene sea levels as much as 5 m above today's level, our observations along the northeastern coast indicate that sea level here was not above the present-day level during the Holocene. Near Jericoacoara, about 240 km northwest of Fortaleza, characterized by strong surf, Precambrian rocks crop out from under a temporary cover of sand in small protected locations with less surf. Here in this upper tidal zone beach rock is being formed, while it is being dismembered synchronously by erosion at lower tide levels. This shows a rising sea level. Along the entire coast of Ceará west of Ponta Grossa the absence of beach rock higher than spring tide level indicates that sea-level was not above its present-day level during the Holocene.Notches in bedrock situated between 2 m and 6 m above spring-tide high-water level that we formerly described as Holocene, are now believed to be Sangamonian. 相似文献
406.
Jens Wendler Jens Köster Jens Götze Norbert Kasch Norbert Zisser Jonas Kley Dieter Pudlo Georg Nover Reinhard Gaupp 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(1):159-176
Fracture-related bleaching of Lower Triassic Buntsandstein red beds of central Germany was related to significant carbonate
diagenesis and feldspar alteration caused by CO2-rich fluids. Using cathodoluminescence microscopy and spectroscopy combined with electron microprobe analysis and stable
carbon isotope study, two major fluid–mineral interactions were detected: (1) zoned, joint-filling calcites and zoned pore-filling
calcite cements, the latter replacing an earlier dolomite, were formed during bleaching. During the calcite formation and
dolomite–calcite transformation, iron was incorporated into the calcite cement crystal cores due to Fe availability from the
coeval bleaching. The dedolomitisation was ultimately associated with a volume increase. The related permeability decrease
implies a certain degree of sealing and increasing retention of CO2, and the volume increase offers a minor CO2 sink. Carbonate-rich sandstone, therefore, can provide advantages for underground CO2 storage especially when situated in the fringes of the reservoir. (2) Alkali-feldspar alteration due to the bleaching fluids
is reflected in cathodoluminescence spectra predominantly by the modulation of a brown luminescence emission peak (~620 nm).
This peak represents a newly discovered effect related to alkali-feldspar alteration not solely associated with bleaching.
Its modulation by the bleaching is interpreted to be due to Na depletion or a lattice defect in the Si–O bonds of the SiO4-tetrahedron. Alteration reflected by this luminescence feature has a destructive effect on the feldspars implying the possibility
of diminished rock integrity due to bleaching and, hence, CO2-rich fluids. Two further CL spectral changes related to bleaching occur, (a) decreased intensity between around 570 nm assigned
to Mn-depletion, and (b) increased amplitude and wavelength shift of the red (~680 nm) band. Converging evidence from carbonate
and feldspar diagenesis, stable carbon isotope data and analysis of fracture directions suggests that CO2 fluids contributed to a significant extent to the bleaching phenomena and alteration in the studied Buntsandstein strata. 相似文献
407.
The Netherlands knows a persistent threat of flooding. To adapt to this dangerous reality, the Dutch have cultivated what disaster research literature has labeled ‘disaster subcultures’ or a set of cultural (tangible and intangible) tools to deal with the recurrent hazard. While there is abundant attention for the way the Dutch ‘coastal’ and ‘low-lying’ communities deal with the recurrent threat of (coastal) flooding, less is known about the way the Dutch ‘high-lands’ deal with the yearly threat of (fluvial) flooding. This article presents the findings of an explorative research endeavor (2011–2013) aimed at discerning if the disaster subculture concept has contemporary relevance in the Netherlands, particularly with respect to flooding, and if so, whether applying this lens would reveal more about the nature of existing disaster subcultures. Because less is known about the Dutch ‘high-lands,’ we chose to look into the existence and attributes of disaster subcultures in the parishes Borgharen and Itteren, which experience a systematic threat of flooding. Our findings suggest that the disaster subculture lens is valuable as it enables the empirical appreciation of disaster subcultures, even in a small country like the Netherlands, and it unveiled elements of these neighboring parishes’ flood reality that otherwise might have gone unnoticed and that seem central to understanding these two parishes’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. It is our contention that the concept ‘disaster subculture’ makes a greater understanding possible of the cultural context from which vulnerability and resilience to specific and recurrent threats emerge. 相似文献
408.
Elmar BUHL Michael H. POELCHAU Georg DRESEN Thomas KENKMANN 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(1):71-86
Abstract– Hypervelocity impact experiments on dry and water‐saturated targets of fine‐grained quartz sandstone, performed within the MEMIN project, have been investigated to determine the effects of porosity and pore space saturation on deformation mechanisms in the crater’s subsurface. A dry sandstone cube and a 90% water‐saturated sandstone cube (Seeberger Sandstein, 20 cm side length, about 23% porosity) were impacted at the Fraunhofer EMI acceleration facilities by 2.5 mm diameter steel spheres at 4.8 and 5.3 km s?1, respectively. Microstructural postimpact analyses of the bisected craters revealed differences in the subsurface deformation for the dry and the wet target experiments. Enhanced grain comminution and compaction in the dry experiment and a wider extent of localized deformation in the saturated experiment suggest a direct influence of pore water on deformation mechanisms. We suggest that the pore water reduces the shock impedance mismatch between grains and pore space, and thus reduces the peak stresses at grain–grain contacts. This effect inhibits profound grain comminution and effective compaction, but allows for reduced shock wave attenuation and a more effective transport of energy into the target. The reduced shock wave attenuation is supposed to be responsible for the enhanced crater growth and the development of “near surface” fractures in the wet target. 相似文献
409.
Günther Josef Redhammer Anatoliy Senyshyn Gerold Tippelt Clemens Pietzonka Georg Roth Georg Amthauer 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2010,37(5):311-332
CoGeO3 was synthesized at 1,273 and 1,448 K using ceramic sintering techniques in the monoclinic and orthorhombic modification,
respectively. The two compounds were analysed by magnetic susceptibility measurements and neutron diffraction in order to
study magnetic ordering and spin structures at low temperature. The monoclinic form of CoGeO3 has C2/c symmetry and orders magnetically below 36 K with a small negative paramagnetic Curie temperature θ
P = −4.6 (2) K. The magnetic structure can be described with k = (1, 0, 0) in the magnetic space group C2′/c′ having a ferromagnetic spin arrangement within the chains of M1 sites, but a dominating antiferromagnetic coupling between
the chains. At the M1 sites the magnetic spins are aligned within the a–c plane forming an angle of 120° with the +a-axis and they are not parallel to the spins at M2. Here spins are also ferromagnetically coupled within, but antiferromagnetically
coupled between the M1/M2 site bands. The orthorhombic phase of CoGeO3 displays Pbca symmetry and transforms to an antiferromagnetically ordered state [θ
P = −18.6(2) K] below 33 K. The magnetic spin structure can be described with k = (0, 0, 0) in space group Pbca′ and it is similar to the one of the C2/c phase except that it is non-collinear in nature, i.e. there are components of the magnetic moment along all three crystallographic
axes. Small magneto-elastic coupling is observed in the orthorhombic phase. 相似文献