Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change     

Mohamad I. Hejazi  Glenn E. Moglen 《水文研究》2007,21(14):1793-1801

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The SAURON project – IX. A kinematic classification for early-type galaxies     

Eric Emsellem  Michele Cappellari  Davor Krajnovi&#;  Glenn van de Ven  R. Bacon  M. Bureau  Roger L. Davies  P. T. de Zeeuw  Jesús Falcón-Barroso  Harald Kuntschner  Richard McDermid  Reynier F. Peletier  Marc Sarzi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(2):401-417

  相似文献   

Tropical instability wave interactions within the Galápagos Archipelago     

W.V. Sweet  J.M. Morrison  Y. Liu  D. Kamykowski  B.A. Schaeffer  L. Xie  S. Banks 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(8):1217-1229

The effects of tropical instability waves (TIW) within the eastern equatorial Pacific during the boreal fall of 2005 were observed in multiple data sets. The TIW cause oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST), meridional currents (V), and 20 °C isotherm (thermocline). A particularly strong 3-wave packet of ～15-day period TIW passed through the Galápagos Archipelago in Sep and Oct 2005 and their effects were recorded by moored near-surface sensors. Repeat Argo profiles in the archipelago showed that the large temperature (>5 °C) oscillations that occurred were associated with a vertical adjustment within the water column. Numerical simulations report strong oscillations and upwelling magnitudes of ～5.0 m d^?1 near the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) buoy at 0°, 95°W and in the Archipelago at 92°W and 90°W. A significant biological response to the TIW passage was observed within the archipelago. Chlorophyll a measured by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) increased by >30% above 1998–2007 mean concentrations within the central archipelago. The increases coincide with coldest temperatures and the much larger increases within the archipelago as compared to those of 95°W indicate that TIW induced upwelling over the island platform itself brought more iron-enriched upwelling waters into the euphotic zone.  相似文献   

Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent     

Matthew J.R. Simpson  Glenn A. Milne  Philippe Huybrechts  Antony J. Long 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(17-18):1631-1657

We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat.  相似文献   

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery     

Darren M. Parsons  Mark A. Morrison  Alison B. MacDiarmid  Bruce Stirling  Phillip Cleaver  Ian W.G. Smith 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):965-983

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.  相似文献   

Arsenic in an alkaline AMD treatment sludge: Characterization and stability under prolonged anoxic conditions     

Suzanne Beauchemin  Jean-François Fiset  Glenn Poirier  James Ablett 《Applied Geochemistry》2010

Lime treatment of acid mine drainage (AMD) generates large volumes of neutralization sludge that are often stored under water covers. The sludge consists mainly of calcite, gypsum and a widespread ferrihydrite-like Fe phase with several associated species of metal(loid) contaminants. The long-term stability of metal(loid)s in this chemically ill-defined material remains unknown. In this study, the stability and speciation of As in AMD sludge subjected to prolonged anoxic conditions is determined. The total As concentration in the sludge is 300 mg kg⁻¹. In the laboratory, three distinct water cover treatments were imposed on the sludge to induce different redox conditions (100%N₂, 100%N₂ + glucose, 95%N₂:5%H₂). These treatments were compared against a control of oxidized, water-saturated sludge. Electron micro-probe (EMP) analysis and spatially resolved synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) results indicate that As is dominantly associated with Fe in the sludge. In all treatments and throughout the experiment, measured concentrations of dissolved As were less than 5 μg L⁻¹. Dissolved Mn concentration in the N₂ + glucose treatment increased significantly compared to other treatments. Manganese and As K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES) analyses showed that Mn was the redox-active element in the solid-phase, while As was stable. Arsenic(V) was still the dominant species in all water-covered sludges after 9 months of anoxic treatments. In contrast, Mn(IV) in the original sludge was partially reduced into Mn(II) in all water-covered sludges. The effect was most pronounced in the N₂ + glucose treatment, suggesting microbial reduction. Micro-scale SXRF and XANES analysis of the treated sludge showed that Mn(II) accumulated in areas already enriched in Fe and As. Overall, the study shows that AMD sludges remain stable under prolonged anoxic conditions. External sources of chemical reductants or soluble C were needed to induce lower redox state in the systems, and even under these imposed treatments, only weakly reducing conditions (Mn threshold) developed. The results suggest that As(V) in AMD sludge will remain stable under prolonged anoxic conditions as long as Mn(IV) is present and organic matter accumulation is negligible.  相似文献   

A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part I: Forcing Fields and Initial Conditions     

J. Morrison  W. Callendar  D. Masson  I. Fine 《大气与海洋》2014,52(1):1-19

  相似文献   

A 7000-year record of environmental change,including early farming impact,based on lake-sediment geochemistry and pollen data from County Sligo,western Ireland     

Michael O'Connell  Beatrice Ghilardi  Liam Morrison 《Quaternary Research》2014

Detailed, chronologically tightly constrained, lake-sediment-based geochemical and pollen records have enabled local changes in soil erosion, woodland cover and composition, and prehistoric farming impact to be reconstructed in considerable detail. The profile opens shortly after 7800 BC when tall canopy trees were well-established and presumably in equilibrium with their environment. A distinct perturbation that involved an increase in pine and birch, a decrease in oak and a minor opening-up of the woodland is regarded as the local expression of the 8.2 ka climate anomaly. Lack of response in the geochemical erosional indicators is interpreted as evidence for drier conditions. A short-lived, over-compensation in climate recovery followed the 8.2 ka event. Neolithic farming impact is clearly expressed in both the pollen and geochemical data. Both datasets indicate that Neolithic impact was concentrated in the early Neolithic (3715–3440 BC). In the interval 3000–2700 BC there appears to have been a break in farming activity. The pollen data suggest substantially increased farming impact (both arable and pastoral) in the Bronze Age, with maximum farming and woodland clearances taking place in the late Bronze Age (1155–935 BC). These developments are poorly expressed in the geochemical record, possibly due to within-lake changes.  相似文献   

High-frequency radar observations of the June 2013 US East Coast meteotsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Belinda Lipa  Hardik Parikh  Don Barrick  Hugh Roarty  Scott Glenn 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):109-122

We report here on the observation and offline detection of the meteotsunami off the New Jersey coast on June 13, 2013, using coastal radar systems and tide gauges. This work extends the previous observations of tsunamis originating in Japan and Indonesia. The radars observed the meteotsunami 23 km offshore, 47 min before it arrived at the coast. Subsequent observations showed it moving onshore. The neighboring tide gauge height reading provides confirmation of the radar observations near the shore.  相似文献   

Glacial forest refugium in Howard Valley,South Island,New Zealand     

Maureen J. Marra  Glenn D. Thackray 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(3):309-319

Fossils of forest habitat beetles and leaves of Nothofagus menziesii provide evidence of a forest refugium at times between ca. 34 000 and ca. 18 500 cal. a BP at an upland site in Howard Valley, located adjacent to glaciated valleys in South Island, New Zealand. The stratigraphy of the glacial‐aged terrace sequence of organic‐rich silts and fluvial sand/gravels indicates that soil development occurred episodically for around 15 000 a. Fifty‐four beetle taxa represent seven habitat types: forest, forest or scrub, riparian and aquatic, litter, grass/tussock, marshland and moss habitats. Leaf and beetle fossils indicate that forest dominated by N. menziesii persisted at the site for most of the time period represented, and tree line taxa such as Taenarthrus sp. 1 (Carabidae) and Podocarpus sp. (Podocarpaceae) indicate that the site may represent the upper tree limit for full‐glacial time. The finding of forest at this elevated site adds to the growing fossil evidence for multiple forest refugia in New Zealand during the last glaciation and is consistent with the pollen records, which have consistently indicated the presence of forest species during the last glaciations. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献