Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization     

Jieshun Zhu  Bohua Huang  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  James L. Kinter III  Peitao Peng  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.  相似文献   

基于Voronoi图的强降水过程空间非均匀性定量表征方法     

彭小燕  杜银  丁裕国 《气象科技》2013,41(3):522-528

利用Voronoi\\Delaunay图模型影响范围和局部动态的特性,提出一种基于动态边界定量提取强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征的新方法,根据1959—2002年中国740站逐日降水资料,构建5日、10日两种时间尺度区域持续性年极端强降水过程序列,用以检验该方法的应用效果,并应用该方法分析了5日(10日)区域持续性年极端强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征及其演变规律。结果表明：与传统的数量统计方法和区域插值方法相比,该方法在强降水空间分布中心、过程内不同强度降水覆盖区域、降水集中区等的定量度量方面具有更高的分辨力和较好实际应用价值;气候趋势分析中在1959—2002年间,5日区域持续性年极端强降水过程出现日期有明显提前趋势。  相似文献   

温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

彭晓丹  杨再强  柳笛  张婷华  周志龙  朱凯  赵翔 《气象科技》2013,41(2):394-400

以黄瓜品种津优35号(Jingyou 35)为试材,于2011年设计不同低温（5、7、9、11 ℃,以25 ℃为对照）处理的人工环境控制试验,系统研究不同低温胁迫对黄瓜叶片光合作用特性及抗氧化酶活性的影响。结果表明：黄瓜叶片最大光合速率随低温胁迫程度的增加依次降低;在不同低温胁迫下,随胁迫时间的延长,黄瓜叶片光补偿点不断升高,光饱和点不断降低;在5 ℃、7 ℃和9 ℃低温处理下,随胁迫时间的延长,光系统Ⅱ最大光化学效率呈下降趋势,光化学淬灭不断降低,非光化学淬灭的变化趋势相反;黄瓜叶片中的超氧化物歧化酶活性随着处理温度的降低先升高后下降;过氧化物酶活性在9 ℃处理24 h后达到最高;过氧化氢酶活性随着处理温度的降低而升高;丙二醛含量大于对照,随胁迫程度的增加先升高,后略有下降。通过研究建立了温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标,划分为4个等级,分别为轻度、中度、重度和极重,可为设施农业气象服务提供科学依据。  相似文献   

On shallow-water bottom reverberation frequency dependence     

Cable  P.G. Yudichak  T.W. Dorfman  Y. Knobles  D.P. Renhe Zhang Zhaohui Peng Fenghua Li Zhenglin Li 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2006,31(1):145-155

Determinations of bottom scattering strength in the decade below 1 kHz under downward refracting conditions have been made using acoustic reverberation and transmission data from the 2001 East China Sea Asian Seas International Acoustic Experiment (ASIAEX). The measurements were performed using explosive sources and receiving hydrophones in ship-suspended vertical-line arrays. The focus of this paper has been the dependence of bottom scattering strength on the frequency and characterization of the uncertainties associated with the extraction of scattering strength from reverberation. The derived bottom scattering strength gradually rises with frequency from 100-300 Hz and then more rapidly above 300 Hz. A potential explanation suggests that the frequency variation results from two scattering mechanisms, rough layer scattering at the low end of the band and sediment near-surface volume scattering at the high end. The spatial extrapolation of these results is explored by comparing them with similarly derived scattering strengths using data obtained under the Navy's Harsh Environments Program at a somewhat separated site (56 km) under environmental conditions similar to those during ASIAEX. In the ASIAEX analysis, it has been found that the largest source of uncertainty in the scattering-strength frequency dependence arises from persistence of finite-amplitude effects associated with the source signal.  相似文献   

Disk Galaxies with Finite Thickness     

Qiu-He Peng  Fang Peng  Chih-Kang Chou  Yi-Hui Lin 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,282(3):499-525

The effect of finite thickness on the properties of disk galaxies is calculated on the basis of a rigorous mathematical treatment in terms of Green function and Bessel Fourier transformation. In our approach, the mass of the galactic halo is determined by fitting the observed rotation curve with a five-component model. We not only choose a bulge, a thin disk and a halobut also include a nuclear bulge (i.e. the Galactic Nucleus) and a thick disk. The effect of finite thickness of the disk on both the radial and vertical self-gravity is considered in detail. The vertical dynamics of this three-dimensional system is also investigated.  相似文献   

硫化物吸附金属离子的实验研究──Ⅱ．温度与介质条件的影响     

吴大清  彭金莲  陈国玺 《地球化学》1996,(3)

合成ＰｂＳ和ＺｎＳ对Ａｇ２＋、Ｃｕ２＋、Ｃｄ２＋、Ｆｅ２＋、Ｍｎ２＋、Ｍｇ２＋、Ｓｂ２＋和Ｂｉ３＋等离子吸附量与温度关系的实验研究表明，其遵从Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ公式：在Ａ类吸附，即抗衡离子交换型吸附中，温度上升，其吸附量升降由反应热决定，本实验中Ａ类吸附多为上升型；而大部分Ｂ和Ｃ类吸附，即朗谬尔型及反朗谬尔型的吸附量则随温度上升呈指数下降。例外的仅有ＰｂＳ对Ｂｉ３＋离子的吸附，其吸附量随温度上升有微弱的上升。这可能与Ｂｉ３＋离子和吸附剂ＰｂＳ之间共晶反应和铅的铋硫盐的形成有关。Ａ类吸附的吸附量受介质条件变化影响很少。但对Ｂ和Ｃ类吸附，吸附量受ｐＨ和离子强度变化影响取决于三个因素：①吸附剂ＰｂＳ、ＺｎＳ表面电荷特性；②溶液介质条件变化时吸附离子在溶液中离子态的分布与变化；③被吸附离子在吸附剂中扩散和形成化合物或共晶的能力。因此，当ｐＨ增加时，Ｐｂｓ和ＺｎＳ对金属离子吸附量的变化表现出多样性：增加的有ＰｂＳ对Ｆｅ２＋离子的吸附；下降的有ＰｂＳ对Ｓｂ３＋离子的吸附和ＺｎＳ对Ｆｅ２＋、Ｍｎ２＋离子的吸附；不变的有ＰｂＳ对Ｂｉ３＋、Ｚｎ２＋离子的吸附和ＺｎＳ对Ｍｇ２＋离子的吸附。当溶液中离子强度增加时，由于溶液中自由态离子  相似文献   

Genetic study of Kelp “901” strain     

夏鹏王秀良  李晓捷赵玉山姚琳  段德麟 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2005,23(2):152-157

Based on DNA extraction and optimization of random amplified reaction (RAPD) to the gametophytes and sporophytes of Kelp “901” strain, genetic study on variation was conducted to its parents and offsprings of F6, F7,Fs, and F9 generation. RAPD results have shown that among 30 selected primers for gametophytes, 297 loci ranging from 200 to 3 000 bp were obtained in the average of 9,9 loci for each primer, This indicated a high polymorphic rate with RAPD detection. UPGMA (unweighted pair-group method arithmetic average) analysis showed that each male and female gametophyte of a generation could be clustered into one pair separately. The genetic distances of the Kelp 901 generation were 0.321 2-0.476 7, and the maximum was between F7 and Fs (0.476 7). Identity analysis showed that F6 generation was more close to the female parent (0.659 3), and F7 generation was more close to the male parent (0.5788). To the sporophytes study in 24 selected primers for RAPD amplification, 191 loci ranging from 230-2 800 bp were obtained, in the average to each primer of 8.0 loci. The heterozygosity to six populations were male parent (0.223 9),female parent (0.107 2), F6 (0.216 4), F7 (0.228 6), F8 (0.229 6) and F9 (0.317 2). The nearest genetic distance was 0.083 5 (Fs, F9). Total heterozygosity (HT) ofF6, F7, F8 and F9 generations was 0.318 6, the average heterozygosity (Hs) for F6,F7, F8 and F9 generations was 0.248 0, and deduced coefficient of population differentiation (Gst) was 22.2%. Six sequence characterized amplified regions (SCAR) were preliminary screened through RAPD analysis. It needed to be verified in detail as they are significant for molecular marker assistance in breeding and selecting Laminaria.  相似文献   

上海天文台CHAMP掩星资料处理结果的统计分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郭鹏  严豪健  黄珹  洪振杰 《天文学报》2006,47(2):192-201

随着GPS全球定位系统的发展,已经有可能使用GPS掩星技术反演精确的大气温度,压强和湿度剖面．在概要地描述上海天文台(SHAO)开发的GPS掩星数据资料反演地球大气流程模块以后,分析了2002年8月1日至2002年8月17日期间2700多次CHAMP掩星数据资料的结果,并且与欧洲中尺度天气预报分析(ECMWF)资料进行比较和统计分析,讨论了CHAMP掩星数据的质量,并分析了CHAMP掩星数据的观测误差和ECMWF的分析模型误差．提出了一种优化的统计分析方法,它能更客观地反映GPS掩星技术的外部符合．统计分析结果表明GPS掩星数据将有可能成为数值天气预报和长期监测地球气候的非常有价值的数据资料．  相似文献   

A Statistical Model for Predicting the Average Abundance Patterns of Heavier Elements in Metal-Poor Stars     

Bo Zhang  Yan-Xia Zhang  Ji Li  Qiu-He Peng Department of Physics  Hebei Normal University  Shijiazhuang Center of Theoretical Nuclear Physics  National Laboratory of Heavy Ion Accelerator  Lanzhou National Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing Department of Astronomy  Nanjing University  Nanjing 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2002,2(5):429-440

We have collected nearly all the available observed data of the elements from Ba to Dy in halo and disk stars in the metallicity range -4.0 <[Fe/H]< 0.5. Based on the observed data of Ba and Eu, we evaluated the least-squares regressions of [Ba/Fe] on [Fe/H], and [Eu/H] on [Ba/H]. Assuming that the heavy elements (heavier than Ba) are produced by a combination of the main components of s- and r-processes in metal-poor stars, and choosing Ba and Eu as respective representative elements of the main s- and the main r-processes, a statistical model for predicting the Galactic chemical evolution of the heavy elements is presented. With this model, we calculate the mean abundance trends of the heavy elements La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, and Dy with the metallicity. We compare our results with the observed data at various metallicities, showing that the predicted trends are in good agreement with the observed trends, at least for the metallicity range [Fe/H]> -2.5. Finally, we discuss our results and deduce some importa  相似文献   

Ekman层风速随高度分布方程的数值解试验     

刘敏  郭鹏 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):31-38

根据大气水平运动方程推导出Ekman层风速随高度分布方程,该分布可用二阶线性微分方程表示,用有限差分法求解该二阶线性微分方程的边值问题的数值解,并给出计算程序,输出结果。将结果与经典解析解比较,讨论了经典解的正确性和适用范围。  相似文献