Fostering assumption-based stress-test thinking in managing groundwater systems: learning to avoid failures due to basic dynamics     

Joseph H. A. Guillaume  Sondoss El Sawah 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(7):1507-1523

Sustainable groundwater resource management can only be achieved if planning processes address the basic dynamics of the groundwater system. Conceptual and distributed groundwater models do not necessarily translate into an understanding of how a plan might operate in reality. Prompted by Australian experiences, ‘iterative closed-question modelling’ has been used to develop a process of iterative dialogue about management options, objectives and knowledge. Simple hypothetical models of basic system dynamics that satisfy agreed assumptions are used to stress-test the ability of a proposed management plan to achieve desired future conditions. Participants learn from models in which a plan succeeds and fails, updating their assumptions, expectations or plan. Their new understanding is tested against further hypothetical models. The models act as intellectual devices that confront users with new scenarios to discuss. This theoretical approach is illustrated using simple one and two-cell groundwater models that convey basic notions of capture and spatial impacts of pumping. Simple extensions can address uncertain climate, managed-aquifer recharge and alternate water sources. Having learnt to address the dynamics captured by these models, participants may be better placed to address local conditions and develop more effective arrangements to achieve management outcomes.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of Channelized Systems Through a Conditioned Reverse Migration Method     

Marion N. Parquer  Pauline Collon  Guillaume Caumon 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(8):965-994

Geological heterogeneities directly control underground flow. In channelized sedimentary environments, their determination is often underconstrained: it may be possible to observe the most recent channel path and the abandoned meanders on seismic or satellite images, but smaller-scale structures are generally below image resolution. In this paper, reconstruction of channelized systems is proposed with a stochastic inverse simulation reproducing the reverse migration of the system. Maps of the recent trajectories of the Mississippi river were studied to define appropriate relationships between simulation parameters. Measurements of curvature and migration vectors showed (i) no significant correlation between curvature and migration offset and (ii) correlation trends of downstream and lateral migration offsets versus the curvature at half-meander scale. The proposed reverse migration method uses these trends to build possible paleo-trajectories of the river starting from the last stage of the sequence observed from present-day (satellite or seismic) data. As abandoned meanders provide clues about the paleo-locations of the river, they are integrated time step by time step during the reverse simulation process. We applied the method to a satellite image of a fluvial system. Each of the different resulting geometries of the system honored most of the available observations and presented meandering patterns similar to the observed ones.  相似文献